WeatherFox Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 57, drizzle and windy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 62 degrees here right now. I knew we would manage to make it to the low 60s today, but obviously it does feel cool after how warm it has been lately. Still looks as if we'll see mid 70s wednesday and thursday. Maybe as high as 77 here thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Pretty nice rain squall here in Ronkonkoma now. Tiny little thing on radar but had some gusto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, psv88 said: With a NW flow i am often warmer than central park, especially early in the season. Sound kills it. II hate this damn wind it's making my allergies act up! I turned on my bedroom space heater for the first time last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 16 minutes ago, bkviking said: Pretty nice rain squall here in Ronkonkoma now. Tiny little thing on radar but had some gusto. I dont like it! I need the sun to keep me warm! and get rid of this damn wind thats making my allergies act up today. I thought it was supposed to be sunny and clear today, another major short term screw up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 EPS weeklies keep the perma-ridge firmly planted over Eastern Canada for the rest of October. So generally near to above normal temperatures. But we could see some slightly cooler days mixed in. Still no big -10 departure days showing up as mild Pacific air will dominate with the strong -PNA +EPO. Oct 18-25 Oct 25-31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 hate these blocks that show up and shut off any kind of storm activity for us for weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: EPS weeklies keep the perma-ridge firmly planted over Eastern Canada for the rest of October. So generally near to above normal temperatures. But we could see some slightly cooler days mixed in. Still no big -10 departure days showing up as mild Pacific air will dominate with the strong -PNA +EPO. Oct 18-25 Oct 25-31 I see a lot of dreary, stagnant days with this pattern. Cooler highs with well AN lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 4 hours ago, psv88 said: Come...the park lol. lets use the park in the mid winter then too... I like what someone recently said, that Kennedy is a good temperature representation for those going to the beach, Newark is good for those going to the city and Central Park a good representation for those going to the park. They all have their place. Considering there is no foliage on the trees during mid winter, why not use Central Park. Of course this time of year that foliage makes a difference for daytime highs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 raw day here with some showers and temps now down to 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Monticello NY has light rain and 44 degrees currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Hunter Mountain in the Catskills is already dropping to the upper 30s, keep the scattered showers going long enough and maybe some of the high elevations can see some snow mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 A heavier shower moving out over the Long Island Sound resulted in a rainbow. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: A heavier shower moving out over the Long Island Sound resulted in a rainbow. Yes I saw a rainbow in my area, looking toward the north shore area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Feels artic out today but will only be a -3 to -6 day in the park. Goes to show you how warm it’s been lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 6 hours ago, psv88 said: Newark is 62, the rest of the major reporting sites are 59. High of 58 in the park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Today was the coolest day so far this season. New York City and Philadelphia recorded low temperatures in the 40s for the first time this season. Tomorrow will be another cool day. After perhaps the coldest readings so far this season, the mercury will reach the lower and middle 60s across the area. Warmer air will return Wednesday. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend. Elsewhere, Bismarck recorded its 154th 70° day. That broke the annual record of 153 days, which had been set in 2016. Caribou has yet to record its first freeze of the season. The previous latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +19.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.464 today. On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.589 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.967 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.6° (3.7° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 High of 62. Low was 48. 53 right now but it feels colder. Had a nice double rainbow a short while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 21 minutes ago, Cfa said: High of 62. Low was 48. 53 right now but it feels colder. Had a nice double rainbow a short while ago. Did you have rain today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Today was the coolest day so far this season. New York City and Philadelphia recorded low temperatures in the 40s for the first time this season. Tomorrow will be another cool day. After perhaps the coldest readings so far this season, the mercury will reach the lower and middle 60s across the area. Warmer air will return Wednesday. Another cool shot is likely for the weekend. Elsewhere, Bismarck recorded its 154th 70° day. That broke the annual record of 153 days, which had been set in 2016. Caribou has yet to record its first freeze of the season. The previous latest first freeze occurred on October 17, 1970. The MJO has now completed its passage through Phase 5 at a very high amplitude. During the 1991-2020 period, there were 6 cases with passage through Phase 5 with at least three days at an amplitude of 1.500 or above: 1998, 2000, 2004, 2010, 2017, and 2020. There was a strong signal for the second half of October to wind up warmer than normal (83%) cases in the New York City area. However, that signal broke down to a 50-50 split for the first 10 days of November. That hints at possible timing for a pattern transition depending on the pattern evolution and changes in the teleconnections. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around October 13. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.15°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +19.66 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.464 today. On October 16 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 0.589 (RMM). The October 15-adjusted amplitude was 0.967 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October (1991-2020 normal). October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 61.6° (3.7° above normal). Hey Don did JFK get down into the 40s and stay in the 50s today too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Lake effect rocket fuel once it gets cold enough for snow around the Great Lakes. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: A heavier shower moving out over the Long Island Sound resulted in a rainbow. Saw that today. Beautiful 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Heat kicked on today. First time this year. Finally feels like fall. High of 60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 Down to 52 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 18, 2021 Share Posted October 18, 2021 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Hey Don did JFK get down into the 40s and stay in the 50s today too? JFK had a low of 50 so far. It should be in the 40s tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: JFK had a low of 50 so far. It should be in the 40s tonight. Oh thanks did the high get to 60? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: A heavier shower moving out over the Long Island Sound resulted in a rainbow. Beautiful Don! I have heard because of the number of prismatic surfaces available near bodies of water, near places like the Long Island Sound you can actually see quadruple rainbows! (Two double rainbows!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Beautiful Don! I have heard because of the number of prismatic surfaces available near bodies of water, near places like the Long Island Sound you can actually see quadruple rainbows! (Two double rainbows!) I have never seen more than two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 19, 2021 Share Posted October 19, 2021 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Oh thanks did the high get to 60? Yes. The high was 64. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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