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September Discussion Thread: Bring the frost; kill the bugs.


moneypitmike
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4 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Least snowy of my 23 winters here.  In fact, least snowy since 1973-74 in BGR, my 1st full winter in Maine.  And a December that might retain the #1 spot for mild temp for the rest of the century even if warming were to continue apace thru 2100.

Wonder how many sites in NNE have had their first frost. Of the 107 sites with published frost/freeze probabilities, 33 of them have passed their average first frost date based on the 1981-2010 normals.

Median date for 1st frost here is Sept. 19 and we haven't yet dipped below 40.  Maybe we frost week after next - only 2011 made it thru Sept w/o a frost here.

Pretty good chance many in NNE get their first frost between 9/25-9/30 if models are close to correct. 

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Fall heading in right on schedule.  September to me is a summer month, period.  Whether it's 10 above or 10 below for the month, highs of 70-75-80-85...its all warm to me.  Fall has always been October/November with temps in the 40s-60s, and it looks like that's where we are headed.  Next stop, late Oct first snow watch.

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The way all these “brokeback” air masses have been modifying on models as we get close in and then verification.. you’d figure the same will happen late next week. Not to say there’s not a few days of low-mid 70’s and nights in 40’s, but with warm Great Lakes acting as modifiers.. tread on any bitter  shots with caution 

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4 hours ago, kdxken said:

Enjoy the swan song.

High pressure then establishes itself over
Southern New England Sunday into midweek, with above normal
temperatures, low humidity and dry weather. A cold frontal
passage around Wednesday night or Thursday ushers in a cooler
autumn-like air mass with below normal temperatures for late
next week into early next weekend.

Definitely going to be the first "cool blast" of the season but I'm not so sure we really see "below-normal" temperatures during that period...I think we'll see temperatures closer to avg...some areas may come out a tick below an some probably a tick above 

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I know fall is coming...

I saw a wolf spider on my bathroom floor this morning. I was standing drying off and I saw something crawling at the bottom of the sink...stupid wolf spider. Even without my glasses I could see it. I was scared because it was only a few feet in front of me so while I was doing my hair I was keeping a close eye on it...which was tough b/c I didn't have my glasses on. In the three seconds I looked at the mirror to get the cute styling going, I looked down...done. I pick up a piece of clothing that I wore yesterday that was on the floor and shook it...IT RAN INTO MY CLOTHES. Not sure if I killed it but there is a little portable heater thing in the bathroom...I picked it up and dropped it on the spider...hopefully the leg of the heater got the spider but I did not see it crawl anywhere after that. WOLF SPIDERS DON'T BELONG IN THE HOUSE

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The way all these “brokeback” air masses have been modifying on models as we get close in and then verification.. you’d figure the same will happen late next week. Not to say there’s not a few days of low-mid 70’s and nights in 40’s, but with warm Great Lakes acting as modifiers.. tread on any bitter  shots with caution 

Likely the Great lakes above normal sst's will keep us above freezing through most of the winter.

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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Definitely going to be the first "cool blast" of the season but I'm not so sure we really see "below-normal" temperatures during that period...I think we'll see temperatures closer to avg...some areas may come out a tick below an some probably a tick above 

... If it happens ?

Obviously that question is built in and you likely intend for that - just sayn'

But, we have been dealing with late mid range amplitude biases for a month in model behavior... Ridging and troughing for that matter.  If/when factoring in, I wouldn't be surprised if the "cool" ends up being more "shot across the bow"

And no .. this now is getting "synoptically lucky" with BD pull ins off the Labrador ...that doesn't count as the latter.  We got this all July and get this on the surface of the sun in this shit hole geology

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The way all these “brokeback” air masses have been modifying on models as we get close in and then verification.. you’d figure the same will happen late next week. Not to say there’s not a few days of low-mid 70’s and nights in 40’s, but with warm Great Lakes acting as modifiers.. tread on any bitter  shots with caution 

NNE will have a few bitterly cool mornings, but nothing in the cards for us

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

... If it happens ?

Obviously that question is built in and you likely intend for that - just sayn'

But, we have been dealing with late mid range amplitude biases for a month in model behavior... Ridging and troughing for that matter.  If/when factoring in, I wouldn't be surprised if the "cool" ends up being more "shot across the bow"

And no .. this now is getting "synoptically lucky" with BD pull ins off the Labrador ...that doesn't count as the latter.  We got this all July and get this on the surface of the sun in this shit hole geology

Also depends on what we're defining "cool blast" as but you make a strong point. Just looking at 850-temperature anomalies, they don't really deviate much from the "average" behind the cold front. In this warming state of climate if we're going to see below-average temperatures...like solidly below, I'd like to see a rather anomalously cold llvl airmass. Also we should note...the extent of the air behind it is really dependent on how deep that low becomes near Hudson Bay. But given what the airmass looks like now...diurnal heating will likely somehow find a way to get most places a few ticks above-average. 

This cool blast though will likely be better defined regarding overnight temps than daytime temps. 

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pretty good chance many in NNE get their first frost between 9/25-9/30 if models are close to correct. 

Isn't that some 2-weeks behind schedule ?   Poking around the web for 'average date of first -' it's hard to tell though.  Even sciency URL stops tend to white-wash ( no pun intended ) around a smear of times frames related to regions.  I guess there's no way to be that discrete about the when-frost metric - ha!

But it seems most agree, the midriff elevations of the Green/Whites back through the Adiron's, and up amid the NW chunk of Maine in general, are espoused as September 15...

With the remainder of "New England Oct 1,"  I am not a big fan of couching Willmantic CT with Manchester NH but it is what it is...

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24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Also depends on what we're defining "cool blast" as but you make a strong point. Just looking at 850-temperature anomalies, they don't really deviate much from the "average" behind the cold front. In this warming state of climate if we're going to see below-average temperatures...like solidly below, I'd like to see a rather anomalously cold llvl airmass. Also we should note...the extent of the air behind it is really dependent on how deep that low becomes near Hudson Bay. But given what the airmass looks like now...diurnal heating will likely somehow find a way to get most places a few ticks above-average. 

This cool blast though will likely be better defined regarding overnight temps than daytime temps. 

Not a bad take there, no -

heh, in fact, it's almost like, 'well yeah'

It sort of goes along with that "flop direction" aspect I was musing about the other day - and have since it become more evidenced to be warmer, dating a few years now.  

It's interesting though, because the talking point was surrounding the tendency for modeled 'marginal' snow/rain events to tend verify more liquid rather than frozen/freezing, when some 20 years ago they tended to verify the latter. 

Maybe that tendency should be not just observable in model verification vs event profile/characters with ptype, but noticeable in the general bath of temperature management.   Honestly, as obvious as that that seems now that I think about it, I haven't actually looked for that.   Maybe when modeling a 'less than certain' cool versus neutral air mass, the verification tendency will 'flop' toward more neutral.

But I guess in stricter terms, if that were/is the case ...neutral impies climo, and it would be the "first" september air mass, either way, that wasn't bootlegged off of Labrador rectal spew -

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22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Isn't that some 2-weeks behind schedule ?   Poking around the web for 'average date of first -' it's hard to tell though.  Even sciency URL stops tend to white-wash ( no pun intended ) around a smear of times frames related to regions.  I guess there's no way to be that discrete about the when-frost metric - ha!

But it seems most agree, the midriff elevations of the Green/Whites back through the Adiron's, and up amid the NW chunk of Maine in general, are espoused as September 15...

With the remainder of "New England Oct 1,"  I am not a big fan of couching Willmantic CT with Manchester NH but it is what it is...

Adirondacks…

1C4AA290-64FA-404D-82CF-AD293BD49316.thumb.png.23b24ab5361c053fb204cd80322e46c4.png
 

NE Kingdom of VT…

AB523B4D-79C9-4723-B115-598BA5D85335.thumb.png.845f1744f8d812e22a0a65bbbdcda9d2.png
 

Central VT…

67509234-B4B7-4569-9119-D6EFCBD3EDA1.thumb.png.cf1bbfab458ddd156eda44d0782fb91f.png

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Hope this year isn't like 1983 in Fort Kent - got nearly 2 weeks into Sept without going below 40 then pow! 25° on 9/14.  (Forecast had been u30s.)  Could've played bocce with the green tomatoes.  (Then had measurable snow in 8 different months, my 61" snow stake was overtopped and had 5,715 SDDs, more than 1,300 above 2nd place.)

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