IDA remnants-Moderate to isolated Major Impact (esp NJ-LI), general storm total 2-8" rainfall Wednesday-Thursday September 1-2 2021

[Maureen]

Just now, NJwx85 said:

This is the first time I can recall people on here complaining about not getting the most rain.

haha, they can have it.

I will go out on a limb as spokesperson for Carteret and say we’re pretty damn tired of the water here!

 

[MJO812]

Nothing here in Brooklyn 

[TriPol]

Waterspout just south of LI!

 

[NJwx85]

Just now, TriPol said:

Waterspout just south of LI!

 

Fairly certain that's the cell that came off the coast near Toms River earlier.

[Stormlover74]

Based on what's happening in ne PA this seems way off

 

[Allsnow]

Drying out and turning out to be a okay day here…

[psv88]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Based on what's happening in ne PA this seems way off

 

Really starting to flood here now, ground isnt absorbing any water, even the grass areas

[donsutherland1]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

That's an interesting region for that to happen....Don, think that corrects further north where the higher peaks are?  I'm thinking from around Hazleton to Mt Pocono.

 

I’m not sure if that. The HREF has been very stable between its 0z and 12z runs. 

[Intensewind002]

It looks like I might see more rain here in albany than back at home on long island. I haven’t really been tracking ida since landfall so i honestly didn’t realize the heavy rain had trended north

[jm1220]

14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Based on what's happening in ne PA this seems way off

 

Not totally on its own. The RAP 15z has 4"+ rain areawide. I guess we';ll see later what kind of rain builds SE after this overrunning portion clearly went to the far northern part of the region.

[Stormlover74]

[Maureen]

Just received notification of a tornado watch for Carteret in effect until 10 PM tonight.

 

 

[Bluebythec]

3 minutes ago, Maureen said:

Just received notification of a tornado watch for Carteret in effect until 10 PM tonight.

 

 

Just got the same alert for Ocean County

[psv88]

Power flickering here, with no wind…

 

[jm1220]

UKMET not backing down whatsoever at 12z. 4-6" more areawide. 

[NJwx85]

Almost all of Southern PA is currently under a flash flood warning and the heaviest convection hasn't even fired yet.

[LoboLeader1]

Judging from radar, it places the heavy rain here at around 7PM. 

[LibertyBell]

33 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

It looks like I might see more rain here in albany than back at home on long island. I haven’t really been tracking ida since landfall so i honestly didn’t realize the heavy had trended north

Rain has moved in to the south shore of Nassau County.  It was actually raining pretty hard about 15 min ago

 

[jm1220]

RAP 16z was quite wet for everybody again. It’ll really be a nowcast situation I think for NYC/LI/I-78 area.  

[LibertyBell]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nothing here in Brooklyn 

sporadic heavy rain here, it was raining hard here 20 min ago now it's not

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

RAP 16z was quite wet for everybody again. It’ll really be a nowcast situation I think for NYC/LI/I-78 area.  

it's not like this storm is moving into the Great Lakes though, this is a pretty good storm track for us

 

[psv88]

Lost power here. How the hell do you lose power from heavy rain??

[Gravity Wave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

That's an interesting region for that to happen....Don, think that corrects further north where the higher peaks are?  I'm thinking from around Hazleton to Mt Pocono.

 

The hills south of Allentown top out between 800-1000', compared to the 250-350' elevation of the valley below. They aren't insignificant.

[weathermedic]

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Lost power here. How the hell do you lose power from heavy rain??

dead branch gets water logged and drops....

[jm1220]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

it's not like this storm is moving into the Great Lakes though, this is a pretty good storm track for us

 

It’s really about the rain over S PA now-how intact it is when it makes it to our region and whether it heads more ENE or NE. If more NE then the heaviest rain stays over CT and Hudson Valley. If it’s more easterly and the warm front can’t push as far, we all get drenched. 

[psv88]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

dead branch gets water logged and drops....

They had a foot of rain here in the past month. I dont buy it...power came back for now thankfully. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

For some reason this reminds me of the overnight part of the storm we had in January 2011.....we had 5"/hr rates for a few hours and ended up with 19" when most were calling bust because precip was light or nonexistent during the day.

 

Actual busts are pretty rare in the age of better modeling. Models do a great job at identifying when heavy precipitation potential exists for the region. It’s just very difficult to pinpoint the exact locations for summer convection and winter snowstorm banding. Since I grew up in the 70s and 80s, one of my definitions off a bust is the models completely missing a storm. The most recent example of this was models  the day before the Jan 25, 2000 snowstorm forecasting no precipitation here. Another type of bust is getting the p-type wrong. Like the January 2008 event that would up mostly rain instead of snow. These two types of model busts were par for the course before the early 90s. While January 2015 was a big forecast amount miss, the blizzard just shifted to a further east part of the forum. NYC got lower amounts than forecast but still a significant snow. So all I really need to see from a model in the warm season is being correct with the the general heavy convection signal. I have learned to be patient on where the specific heaviest rainfall verifies. We often need to rely more on nowcast location of mesoscale features.

[Brian5671]

UKIE

[jm1220]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

UKIE

Yup. Quite the model war at the end.