LibertyBell Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 22 hours ago, bluewave said: Since September has warmed so much, LGA only has a +1.4 departure through the 17th. So the departures don’t tell the whole story. In our warmer climate, +1.4 is all that is needed for a top 10 warmest first 17 days of September. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Sep 17 Missing Count 1 1961-09-17 77.4 0 2 2015-09-17 77.2 0 3 2005-09-17 77.1 0 4 1947-09-17 76.7 0 5 2016-09-17 76.0 0 6 2018-09-17 75.3 0 7 1983-09-17 74.9 0 8 1971-09-17 74.7 0 9 2021-09-17 74.4 0 10 1957-09-17 74.3 0 It could be 120 every day for all I care, what I actually care about is why have our summers become much less sunny and is there any data that tracks that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 15 hours ago, forkyfork said: 12z continues the trend and soaks us whats the fastest way to destroy an upper level low? These things seem to always stall out and ruin an entire week. Maybe we're seeing more of them now, I'm wondering why we get this kind of crap weather more frequently now vs back in the 90s and earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 It is perfect this morning and it’s shaping out to be a perfect looking day! 64 degrees this morning going up to 78 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 70degs.(64/77), or +2. Month to date is 72.2[+0.8]. Should be 71.5[+1.3] by the 27th. Reached 87 here yesterday, on n. winds. 77-80 today, n. wind, m. sunny. Next rain event Thurs/Fri. 67*(70%RH) here at 6am, m. clear. 68* at 9am. 72* at Noon. 73* at 1pm. 75* at 3pm. 78* at 4pm. Reached 79* near 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s with a few lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 77° Newark: 81° Philadelphia: 81° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.1° Newark: 30-Year: 76.6°; 15-Year: 77.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.9°; 15-Year: 78.7° A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible during the middle or latter part of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Several stations just had the 2nd warmest 09-12 to 09-18 on record. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 18 Missing Count 1 2005-09-18 78.4 0 2 2021-09-18 77.1 0 3 1957-09-18 75.4 0 4 1931-09-18 74.9 0 5 1994-09-18 74.5 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 18 Missing Count 1 2005-09-18 75.6 0 2 2021-09-18 74.4 0 3 2018-09-18 72.3 0 4 1998-09-18 72.2 0 5 1971-09-18 72.1 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 12 to Sep 18 Missing Count 1 2005-09-18 73.7 0 2 2021-09-18 72.2 0 3 1957-09-18 72.0 0 4 2018-09-18 71.6 0 5 1971-09-18 71.5 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Shaping to be a splendid Sunday and making two great weekends back to back and longer ranger guidance hints a trifecta next weekend. Before then more of the same tomorrow (Mon) 9/20. By Tue a trough is digginng into the GL and a with a ULL cutting off by Wed (9/22) pushing a southerly flow along the EC. Clouds and humid with rain and potentially a soaking Wed late into and through Thu (9/23) wit >1.5 - 3 inches of rain widespread before the ULL pushes north and aloows the front to push through Fri (9/24). Should setup a fantastic first weekend of fall. Beyond there as we end Sep and open Oct it looks like ridging is likely to build back by Tue (9/28) and warmer overall returns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 it was a hot summer despite low 90 degree numbers from Central Park...the 11 year hot summer or what ever you want to call it goes on...the only thing I would say about that is this summer doesn't stand out like 1944, 1955 1966 and 1977 did...it seems like every summer is an 11 year hot summer so its becoming the norm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Sunset before 7PM today at 6:58 PM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 3 hours ago, LibertyBell said: why does this happen so much?! Record Newfoundland blocking ahead of the big cutoff this week. So the front stalls out for several days. More very heavy training convection potential coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 47 minutes ago, bluewave said: Record Newfoundland blocking ahead of the big cutoff this week. So the front stalls out for several days. More very heavy training convection potential coming up. we're lucky there's no tropical system nearby with that look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: we're lucky there's no tropical system nearby with that look We’ll see if the JMA is correct about that pattern locking in for October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 picture perfect day... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: we're lucky there's no tropical system nearby with that look There's the ghost of Peter lurking offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 It looks like the front continues to slow down on the 12Z GFS for mid/late week. We could pick up some decent rainfall (1-3") along with some thunderstorms. Does anyone have the Euro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The Euro is 2-4” for the areas that get the best training along the stalled front. So the mesos will probably be heavier once we get within their best range. May be another set up where the HREF shows somebody going 5”+ around the region. Also looks to me like this is more of a Thursday into Friday event now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 Just now, Rtd208 said: Also looks to me like this is more of a Thursday into Friday event now. Yeah, I was just gonna mention that Euro doesn't bring the rain in until thursday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 High temperatures beat guidance again as Newark adds another 80° day to the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 80 in Newark and I believe 76 in Central Park. So that should mean most of the area was probably around 78. It was a nice day, this morning felt great with the lower humidity. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 19, 2021 Share Posted September 19, 2021 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: It looks like the front continues to slow down on the 12Z GFS for mid/late week. We could pick up some decent rainfall (1-3") along with some thunderstorms. Does anyone have the Euro? 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro is 2-4” for the areas that get the best training along the stalled front. So the mesos will probably be heavier once we get within their best range. May be another set up where the HREF shows somebody going 5”+ around the region. 4 hours ago, Rtd208 said: Also looks to me like this is more of a Thursday into Friday event now. I think @wdrag may have to start a storm specific thread in the next day or two for the late week event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Tomorrow will be another partly to mostly sunny day. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s across the region. The potential exists for a moderate to perhaps significant rainfall during the middle or latter part of the week. A widespread 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts is possible. The timing remains somewhat uncertain. Despite the guidance of a few days ago, 2021 is still on course to become the 6th out of the last 7 years during which September has had a mean temperature of 70° or above in New York City. Considering that the close of September is still more than 10 days out, the guidance can still reverse. Prior to 2000, New York City saw such warmth on average once every five years. In short, September has become more an extension of summer than a gateway to autumn in the New York City area. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around September 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.22°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.43°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +12.42 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.354 today. On September 17 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.737 (RMM). The September 16-adjusted amplitude was 1.825 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 72% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 70.3° (1.1° above normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 9/19 EWR: 80 PHL: 80 JFK: 79 ACY: 79 New Brnswck: 79 LGA: 78 TTN: 77 TEB: 77 BLM: 76 ISP: 76 NYC: 76 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 The GFS is back showing a more progressive solution the last couple of runs for the mid/late week event, not buying that at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and pleasant. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 75° Newark: 79° Philadelphia: 79° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 74.7°; 15-Year: 75.7° Newark: 30-Year: 76.3°; 15-Year: 77.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 77.5°; 15-Year: 78.4° A moderate to perhaps significant rainfall is possible during the middle or latter part of the week. A general 0.50”-1.50” rainfall with locally higher amounts appears likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 68degs.(62/75), or +1. Month to date is 72.1[+0.9]. Should be 70.8[+0.9] by the 28th. Reached 79* here yesterday. Today: 72-76, s.e. wind, p. sunny. Rain late Wed to early Sat.? 66*(76%RH) here at 6am. 69* at 9am. 71* at 10am. 72* at Noon. 74* at 3pm. 75* at 4pm. Reached 77* briefly at 5:30pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 5 hours ago, Rtd208 said: The GFS is back showing a more progressive solution the last couple of runs for the mid/late week event, not buying that at all. Why’s that? Selfishly, I’m praying for the GFS to be right, or at least a outcome that is more progressive than what the Canadian/Euro show. I’ll take middle of the road :) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 57 degrees this morning. Looks like fall is easing its way in pretty much on schedule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 Following the briefly lower dew points, 70° dew points will return ahead of the cutoff low this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted September 20, 2021 Share Posted September 20, 2021 53 currently, refreshing morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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