USCG RS Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Not sure I know what you mean here ? A while back (I believe it was with Hurricane Matthew), I read about about a system that was actually creating shear, leading to a favorable interaction with the hurricane because it was allowing the storm more outflow, despite it technically being sheer. I was wondering if this is what you meant. A system close enough to interreacting, is actually creating a channel for outflow for Henri. There was a specific name in a study for this, but I cannot remember it off the top of my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wouldn't buy into that. . If you average out this entire few days... Feels like Hamptons to MVY for landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: If you average out this entire few days... Feels like Hamptons to MVY for landfall. Yea, that is where my highest prob cone is.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 45 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Thanks, Ray. I'll enjoy my "dodging the bullet" zone. It doesn't mean banana hammock lol...Just no extreme threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: I mean I guess it could but the wind field is going to expand north to some degree. If it gets to low end cat 2 like some stuff shows.. and it moves into HVN as Cat 1 and moves 5-10 mph NNW towards ALB.. that’s a long period of winds gusting 60-70 mph well north . I’m not thinking cane gusts can get that far north but there will be some very strong winds at least to I-90 in my opinion. This whole thing is a first so all anyone can do is really just make educated guesses . Absolutely agree, New playbook. Interesting stuff. We just knew this year would yield threats here. New moon and full moon in Sept are the next Lookout dates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 5 minutes ago, HailMan06 said: Could you expand on this @Typhoon Tip? @LibertyBell This is an immensely complex course work to do so. Start with this ... with scientific thesaurus in tow where needed: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jlu0701.pdf The HC's northern boundary where it terminates into the westerlies is not fix boundary or 'curb' in free air either. It's really along where the gradient steepens, and the jets ( westerlies ) ablate past.. .It bulges, up then collapsing down ... over time, while the mean width appears to be growing since the hockey-stick era of CC really begin in the last 25 years... Anyway, the idea leveled a moment ago was speculative that now is one of those expanded bulge times... I mean how hard is that to guess, when the 582 is so far N and the 588 too... We are immersed in 575 thickness, with 85/75 Peruvian jungle air. It's not a huge leap to figure why a TC moving into this region would actually NOT encounter "colder" conditions than it is leaving - at least not cold enough to be a baroclinic/frontal genesis. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Looking at the lastest vis sat loop. Stronger convection appears to be moving much closer to the LLC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Decent blow up of convection close to NHC’s estimated center recon just arriving now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LawdogGRNJ Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 What's the latest confirmed location on the LLC core? Channel 13 IR appears to have it peaking through at 30.2 N by 74W ish with the convection making a run at wrap around it. NOTE: Still learning so know visuals are often deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, LawdogGRNJ said: What's the latest confirmed location on the LLC core? Channel 13 IR appears to have it peaking through at 30.2 N by 74W ish with the convection making a run at wrap around it. NOTE: Still learning so know visuals are often deceiving. 31.2 73.9 is LLC estimate by NHC 45 min ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, Joe4alb said: Looking at the lastest vis sat loop. Stronger convection appears to be moving much closer to the LLC. that's been doing that all day ... That region immediately/adjacent and west of your circled annotation is probably dim sun over 15' seas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: This is an immensely complex course work to do so. Start with this ... with scientific thesaurus in tow where needed: https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/bibliography/related_files/jlu0701.pdf The HC's northern boundary where it terminates into the westerlies is not fix boundary or 'curb' in free air either. It's really along where the gradient steepens, and the jets ( westerlies ) ablate past.. .It bulges, up then collapsing down ... over time, while the mean width appears to be growing since the hockey-stick era of CC really begin in the last 25 years... Anyway, the idea leveled a moment ago was speculative that now is one of those expanded bulge times... I mean how hard is that to guess, when the 582 is so far N and the 588 too... We are immersed in 575 thickness, with 85/75 Peruvian jungle air. It's not a huge leap to figure why a TC moving into this region would actually NOT encounter "colder" conditions than it is leaving - at least not cold enough to be a baroclinic/frontal genesis. Thank you so much. I will read through the paper when I have the chance but it what I did see it explains a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 19 minutes ago, USCG RS said: Are you thinking a macroscale favorable interaction with the remnants allowing for poleward venting? Opposite...outflow from it is inhibiting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: that's been doing that all day ... That region immediately/adjacent and west of your circled annotation is probably dim sun over 15' seas. agreed but it was much more disjointed earlier in the day. Almost to the point you could clearly make out the LLC to the NW of the main convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 hour ago, DotRat_Wx said: Sounds like the 7 weather team is sounding the alarm. I hope people are taking it seriously. Seven weather team may end up being bunned 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 12 minutes ago, USCG RS said: A while back (I believe it was with Hurricane Matthew), I read about about a system that was actually creating shear, leading to a favorable interaction with the hurricane because it was allowing the storm more outflow, despite it technically being sheer. I was wondering if this is what you meant. A system close enough to interreacting, is actually creating a channel for outflow for Henri. There was a specific name in a study for this, but I cannot remember it off the top of my head. oh I see - yeah... No in this case the shear is outflow from that convection and it is joining into the on-going circulation mode/anticyclonic rotation, and that "add in" may be belaying the environment from transitioning into a lowered shear, by prolonging the N-E impacting vectors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 GFS coming in slightly S and stronger than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: oh I see - yeah... No in this case the shear is outflow from that convection and it is joining into the on-going circulation mode/anticyclonic rotation, and that "add in" may be belaying the environment from transitioning into a lowered shear, by prolonging the N-E impacting vectors. Thanks for the explanation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 970mb with 76 knot winds through 36 on GFS. Strongest yet. 18z models are always weenies though. Edit: 76-82 knot winds on the eastern side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 GFS Going to hook west into central LI me thinks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 18z GFS looks like it LF the tip of LI like the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 Just now, jbenedet said: GFS Going to hook west into central LI me thinks About time you showed up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 oofers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 13 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Absolutely agree, New playbook. Interesting stuff. We just knew this year would yield threats here. New moon and full moon in Sept are the next Lookout dates Agreed man. When we both said a few months ago that this had a good chance to be “SNE” year.. eyebrows raised. Ray also agreed. The trifecta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 SNE in trouble that run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: Agreed man. When we both said a few months ago that this had a good chance to be “SNE” year.. eyebrows raised. Ray also agreed. The trifecta Didn’t you poo poo this coming here for the first couple days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Didn’t you poo poo this coming here for the first couple days Not that I recall. I think someone said they’d get excited of the Euro showed it.. and I said it didn’t . But maybe I did ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 1 minute ago, ineedsnow said: SNE in trouble that run! lights out there. yikes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 If I’m reading current recon numbers correct ,seems the center may be a bit further East than NHC estimate ..maybe around 73.5W and close to that blow up 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 20, 2021 Share Posted August 20, 2021 14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Seven weather team may end up being bunned ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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