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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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Looking at water vapor map Henri is getting into some very favorable conditions right now and is still moving west there is a trough approaching from the west towards the East Coast that should turn Henri north bound probably tomorrow but how far west can he get first will be interesting.  Now also there is an upper level low diving SSW across the central Great Lakes that will be the feature that would or could hook Henri to the west.  All the players are on the table now it is just a waiting and timing game. 

 

What is very clear from the Water Vapor map presentation is it is all systems go where Henri is right now and he is clearly strengthening. 

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Clearly evident from the improvement on IR, but shear is analyzed to be decreasing per CIMSS. From 32kts earlier to 20kts now. (note the NHC analyzed 25kts earlier) 
It's super impressive that Henri never decoupled. Total Joaquin job. A lot to be said about divergent shear, even when those values would decapitate most systems. The crazy instability driving just enough intense convection rotating up draft to keep the vortex tilted versus sheared off. Tomorrow will be more about a big change in evacuation away from the vortex versus impediment to the upper half.
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4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’ll take a  11pm NHC shift toward Newport for 500$

Seems like at least some shift should be considered yeah. Interesting. 

I keep coming back to Sandy and how those models had to shift left; the situation similarly although it was much more demonstrative back then. What started out turning left in Maine in the models ended up turning left into New Jersey…

Now this time the U/A is not that strong and the block is also a weaker. 

These situations are so anomalous I don’t think models are really going to handle it very well.  

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16 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The winds still don’t look overly impressive away from the immediate shoreline. The rain will be the big story 

Yep. For now anyway. West side of the center looks primed for some sick rain totals. Models frequently underestimate the totals too in that zone on tropical systems...particularly inland where the terrain can enhance it some. 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Gaining latitude, the cone will tighten in the New England region is the idea I think.  Both correct.

Yeah I guess I was just saying that it's independent. It's based on average track error at the lead time. it's not model spread or confidence dependent. 

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25 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

I am in Philadelphia forum but the water temp at ACY Atlantic City is 79 degrees and 83 in and around Cape May and Delaware bay thanks to persistent south and southeast winds due to Fred passing by to the east and the WAR building west over the past few days. 

Reposted

210817.229.0201.n18.jpg

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. For now anyway. West side of the center looks primed for some sick rain totals. Models frequently underestimate the totals too in that zone on tropical systems...particularly inland where the terrain can enhance it some. 

I just think the cyclostrophic disk et al might get lifted over the top of the stabler oceanic boundary layer residing over the relatively colder shelf waters; then it becomes a wildcard weather mixes back down over land - assuming it gets that far nw and over ORH etc  

Whatever it’s gonna be very velocity Sheard so I think tornadoes could be enhanced in a situation like this this

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2 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said:

What's with the dark blue east of Cape Cod and Nantucket? Doesn't seem realistic to me? 

I think it’s cold water draining down from the gulf of Maine plus North Carolina deflects the Gulf Stream out to sea 

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1 minute ago, OSUmetstud said:

What's with the dark blue east of Cape Cod and Nantucket? Doesn't seem realistic to me? 

Labrador current. It’s always frigid water out on the east-facing outer Cape beaches. 

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Just now, MVOyster said:

That dark blue is the Labrador Current coming up against the edge of the Great South Channel … an upwelling, pretty much constant 52deg F … hence the fog

(glad I could finally contribute)

Thanks. I didn't realize that it was that cold there at the moment. The upwelling part makes sense. It doesn't show up very well on the broader SST charts. 

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I just think the cyclostrophic disk et al might get lifted over the top of the stabler oceanic boundary layer residing over the relatively colder shelf waters; then it becomes a wildcard weather mixes back down over land - assuming it gets that far nw and over ORH etc  

Whatever it’s gonna be very velocity Sheard so I think tornadoes could be enhanced in a situation like this this

Yeah if there’s a NW hook and the center goes into SE CT or something like that, then much of eastern SNE could be at risk for spin-ups as it would put us in the front right quadrant. 

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Just now, SnowenOutThere said:

Almost all of the strong ones are a hit, if I lived from New York to Bostin I would be concerned but its not time to panic yet still plenty of time for the track to shift. 

I would say we ahould have a really good idea in 18-24 hours.
 

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
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