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Tropical Storm Henri


wxeyeNH
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0Z UKMET: more ominous run for CT/RI/inland MA as it goes NNW to near RI/CT border and then continued NNW into west central MA

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2021 0 29.7N 68.2W 999 50
1200UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.5N 70.6W 984 64
0000UTC 20.08.2021 24 29.4N 72.7W 978 74
1200UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.7N 74.3W 977 66
0000UTC 21.08.2021 48 30.6N 74.7W 974 73
1200UTC 21.08.2021 60 32.7N 73.9W 967 79
0000UTC 22.08.2021 72 36.1N 72.4W 958 85
1200UTC 22.08.2021 84 39.9N 71.5W 958 81
0000UTC 23.08.2021 96 42.0N 72.0W 984 44 (CT/MA border)
1200UTC 23.08.2021 108 43.0N 72.4W 1001 25
0000UTC 24.08.2021 120 43.2N 71.8W 1005 19
1200UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.8N 69.4W 1007 19
0000UTC 25.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

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2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

A meh solution to put it mildly 

It’s meh verbatim but it took the Euro days to even recognize that a coherent low could survive the journey north. It’s a step toward the GFS and other guidance IMO.

I’d expect the EPS to be more robust.

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11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s meh verbatim but it took the Euro days to even recognize that a coherent low could survive the journey north. It’s a step toward the GFS and other guidance IMO.

I’d expect the EPS to be more robust.

Yea, okay....you know deep down the tamer idea is probably right.  Lol

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Even though the 00z Euro was closer to the other guidance, it was another odd run structurally. It deepens Henri over the next 24 hours to ~986mb when the environment should be hostile, but then attempts to do what it’s been doing the entire time and weaken the system significantly on Friday and early Saturday when it’s likely to be in a more favorable environment. 

The stronger low early allows for the general westward shift, and it essentially loops over SE MA as it decays on Monday. 

Recon will really be helpful here and I’m glad the missions are starting later today. For reasons discussed earlier the Euro is practically flying blind right now. 

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, okay....you know deep down the tamer idea is probably right.  Lol

Moving this slowly up here, sure.

But that doesn’t explain Friday and early Saturday off the SE/southern Mid-Atlantic coast. That looks like an environment that wouldn’t cause a breakdown in the internal structure. The Euro is the only model doing it and I’m not sure why. 

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Moving this slowly up here, sure.

But that doesn’t explain Friday and early Saturday off the SE/southern Mid-Atlantic coast. That looks like an environment that wouldn’t cause a breakdown in the internal structure. The Euro is the only model doing it and I’m not sure why. 

I agree on that.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree on that.

All the guidance weakens this on final approach and most do it pretty dramatically. I think it’d be a surprise if we saw anything higher than a low end cat 1 at this latitude given the current setup. 

You know this but if we wanted high end wind from a purely tropical entity up here it’d need to be hauling through the region. We don’t have that setup here, so it almost doesn’t matter how strong this gets down south. It’ll decay quickly on final approach.

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is it drier, more stable air inhibiting the system on the euro?

Looks like it might be from what I see around hour 42. That and perhaps a little more shear from interaction with the trough. Not sure it’ll play out like that because if it developed a core like the run projects it should be more resilient in the face of that, but that combination would take any higher end intensification off the table IMO. 

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9 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

06z NAM is WAY weaker. Like 30 mb weaker but also way further west. Looks like it scrapes E. LI headed right for the CT/RI border. All with a grain of salt being the 84hr NAM. 

Using NAM for tropical......

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  • dendrite changed the title to Tropical Storm Henri
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