weatherwiz Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 6 minutes ago, WeatherHappens said: there is so much time from now till Sunday...i wish we were seeing these models Friday eh there really isn't that much time...especially when you're talking about communicating to the public and having to take appropriate measures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I expect the Euro OP to follow the Ukie. At least that’s what I do in the winter lol. Not that I care what the OP says right now I'd like it to actually 'see' the fugger first - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHappens Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: eh there really isn't that much time...especially when you're talking about communicating to the public and having to take appropriate measures. in you opinion what are the chances SNE gets a direct hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTFarmer Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Effectively three days to get a lot of boats out of inshore moorings in LIS, in peak summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HMON pretty noticeably weaker so far vs 6z. 1003mb vs 989mb at 6z. Will have to see what impact that has. Gfs at the same time frame was already down to 969mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HMON appears to split Henri into two competing systems, latching onto the southern lobe. Toss-worthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, WeatherHappens said: in you opinion what are the chances SNE gets a direct hit? I just really started looking at this within the half hour and I don't consider myself to be extremely knowledgeable with tropical so my thoughts should be taken with a grain of salt. Typically you'd like to see a trough sliding or amplifying moving across the Ohio Valley as a means to capture a storm and bring it up the coast. However, in this scenario, given Henri's latitude and the synoptic pattern I don't think that would be necessary in this scenario. There are a few key features that seem to glare out: 1. Potential development of high pressure across southeast Canada (there seem to be some differences in this development and overall structure, strength, placement) 2. Potential development of an upper-level low across the eastern-tier of the Ohio Valley (which models seem to be in pretty strong agreement on) 3. Bermuda High 4. Actual strength of Henri moving through the weekend (this could be the biggest key overall) I think a scenario like the GFS is showing is very low probability (but not impossible). I think direct impacts to SNE are low probability (not to say we may not see some showers, gusty winds) but surf will be very dangerous. The probability increases a bit heading out towards Cape Cod but perhaps not by much. What scares me about this type of scenario is lead time...if this sort of solution is say still on the table tomorrow...or Friday but guidance continues to be poor agreement...a massive decision needs to be made about how to communicate this to the public. 2-3 days for preparations really isn't enough (especially in a more dire scenario). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 18.08.2021 0 29.9N 66.1W 1004 40 0000UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.7N 68.4W 999 51 1200UTC 19.08.2021 24 29.5N 70.6W 987 61 0000UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.5N 72.5W 983 63 1200UTC 20.08.2021 48 30.0N 73.9W 981 65 0000UTC 21.08.2021 60 31.3N 74.3W 976 68 1200UTC 21.08.2021 72 33.7N 73.2W 961 85 0000UTC 22.08.2021 84 37.4N 71.3W 960 81 1200UTC 22.08.2021 96 41.1N 70.2W 962 79 0000UTC 23.08.2021 108 42.4N 69.9W 986 46 1200UTC 23.08.2021 120 43.0N 68.0W 996 35 0000UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.4N 65.5W 1003 27 1200UTC 24.08.2021 144 44.2N 62.5W 1005 25 Doesn't copy well but this is the last UKMET TC guidance. I think it goes over the cape as it weakens? Ukie is a crush job 964 s of mvy 977 into cape moving slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 So the HMON looks like it may be getting pulled in, tough to say. But the huge difference is it’s a 1003mb piece of crap vs what it showed at 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said: So the HMON looks like it may be getting pulled in, tough to say. But the huge difference is it’s a 1003mb piece of crap vs what it showed at 6z. HWRF on the other hand is a 949mb beast. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I wouldn't rule out a storm that does a loop dee loop south of long Island and never makes landfall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Just now, DotRat_Wx said: I wouldn't rule out a storm that does a loop dee loop south of long Island and never makes landfall. probably quite likely if Henri is on the weaker side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Euro will be west but not huge jump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Euro still isn't initializing Henri correctly. Still only shows it as a 1011mb low pressure compared to the GFS which correctly initializes ~996mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Cat 4/5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Cat 4/5? 949mb at maximum and beginning to rapidly weaken on approach at 955 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 It’s not where it needs to be, but the euro has initialized much better than prior runs. I personally don’t look at the SLP at initialization, but rather the level of organization at low levels. 5 minutes ago, Newman said: Euro still isn't initializing Henri correctly. Still only shows it as a 1011mb low pressure compared to the GFS which correctly initializes ~996mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Moving too slow to be anything over a cat 1 I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 8 minutes ago, Newman said: Euro still isn't initializing Henri correctly. Still only shows it as a 1011mb low pressure compared to the GFS which correctly initializes ~996mb Imho .. can't be used until it does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said: Moving too slow to be anything over a cat 1 I would guess. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crossbowftw3 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 HWRF with a likely beginning to transition cat 1 at 102 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It’s not where it needs to be, but the euro has initialized much better than prior runs. I personally don’t look at the SLP at initialization, but rather the level of organization at low levels. Yes...the obsession with the precise initialized minimum central pressure is strange. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Probably a TS if it ever makes LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Probably a TS if it ever makes LF. Cat 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Now that I look closer at the GFS... That's a boring solution for storm enthusiasts frankly. It's lifting the cyclostrophic disk above the BL by the time that cross L.I. ... That 990 low at the time/position near NYC, probably doesn't bring much down to the surface given the rate of weakening and the decoupling from the cold water/land interference imposed leading and during that time. Sorry. Then it comes over a quick responder stream over banks deal... something more like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 Euro /cmc or gfs/ Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 If it comes in at that weird angle wouldn’t it also be over the Gulf Stream for a period? Maybe mitigating the rapid weakening a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted August 18, 2021 Share Posted August 18, 2021 I just want to see some surge and wind heres hoping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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