August 2021

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Rain will end. The sun could break through the clouds late in the day. Temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 84°

Newark: 87°

Philadelphia: 88°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 83.2°; 15-Year: 83.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 84.5°; 15-Year: 84.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 85.6°; 15-Year: 85.4°

Henri could pass offshore and approach eastern New England or the waters off eastern New England late this weekend.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 84degs.(76/92), or +10.

77*(95%RH) here at 6am, scattered overcast, streets wet.        82* by 1pm.        87*(64%RH) at 5pm   HI = 95.        90* here at 6pm (55%RH) for a HI =97.

Henri further east by 100 miles at least on the GFS.

[bluewave]

The 75° dew point up at White Plains ties the August monthly  record high for 6 am.

White Plains   LGT RAIN  76  75

 

[LoboLeader1]

75 currently, RH 95% DP 74  0.66 in the rain bucket overnite.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.52" of rain so far today.

Current temp 78/DP 74/RH 90%

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

.00” at the wantagh meso to add to the .00” for the last 7 days. Hopefully that will change in a big way soon 

[lee59]

.02 inch of rain here, everything north and west. We just keep missing thunderstorm activity for the most part.

[SACRUS]

0.45 in the bucket after a high of with longer periods of sun on Wed.   78/72 today and clouds hanging around a bit.  Continues warm / humid and any longer breaks of sun and clearing Thu (8/19) - Sat (8/21) could see temps spike to near or >90.  Other wise hung up front/ Fred's remains slowly moving out and Henri to bring onshore flow and more storms /  clouds Sun (8/22) - Mon (8/23). 

Beyond there Tue (8/24) - Thu (8/26) it does look to clear and heat up as 850 temps soar to >16c and peak near `18c by Wednesday.

Longer range overall warmer than normal with next chance of some heat closer to next weekend (8/29).

 

[Tatamy]

2.95” with the overnight deluge out here.

[crossbowftw3]

Looks to be a final storm total of around 2” if the LSR from about 10ish minutes west of me is to be correct.

 

MA/CT getting dumped on this morning and if Henri stalls there big problems will ensue. Seeing reports of 3-5”+ there.

[qg_omega]

Lots of tornado warnings last night, phone was going crazy

[Cfa]

0.01” last night.

[MJO812]

Right over eastern LI on the 12z Nam

[David-LI]

fwiw, 12z NAM with landfall in the Twin Forks 

[Prue11]

7 minutes ago, David-LI said:

fwiw, 12z NAM with landfall in the Twin Forks 

Looks like wind not too big of a concern?

[BombsAway1288]

2 minutes ago, justinj said:

Looks like wind not too big of a concern?

Don't think it ever was.

Surge and rain would be the story with this.

[David-LI]

4 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Don't think it ever was.

Surge and rain would be the story with this.

Wind is always a concern for Long Island and coast. 

[qg_omega]

8 minutes ago, BombsAway1288 said:

Don't think it ever was.

Surge and rain would be the story with this.

Need to be east of storm for any surge threat as well as wind

[Rjay]

922mb on the 3k.  Looks legit 

 

 

[CIK62]

Henri figures to be just outside the 40N. 70W Benchmark on Sunday AM.

Remember a stronger system would be steered by winds much higher up in the atmosphere and could alter this path.

Follow path of the rain from run to run is best way to see track changes.         48 hours ago it was way east.     It came west but lost some in the last 24hrs.      Compare:

[crossbowftw3]

2 minutes ago, Rjay said:

922mb on the 3k.  Looks legit 

 

 

This is why NAM should never be used to track a TC. From 880 monsters in the gulf to 922 off the Delmarva, what other shenanigans will it cook up next

[Tatamy]

36 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Need to be east of storm for any surge threat as well as wind

That is not correct.  Any significant tropical or non-tropical system can cause surge issues in the New York bight.  The center only needs to move northwards parallel to the coast or linger off shore in order to build high tides in along the coast.  The Perfect Storm of 1991 was a good example.  I drove along Ocean Pkwy during the event and the water was up to the shoulder of the road along the bay side near Captree.

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Need to be east of storm for any surge threat as well as wind

heaviest rains are 100 miles to the west with TC at our latitude, most of us care about rain not wind and surge.  East of storm is usually boring with paltry rainfall totals

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

That is not correct.  Any significant tropical or non-tropical system can cause surge issues in the New York bight.  The center only needs to move northwards parallel to the coast or linger off shore in order to build high tides in along the coast.  The Perfect Storm of 1991 was a good example.  I drove along Ocean Pkwy during the event and the water was up to the shoulder of the road along the bay side near Captree.

that was a boring storm lol barely any rain at all.

Dec 1992 was FAR superior to it and quite frankly to any other coastal storm I've ever experienced, 3 days of wind and rain mixed with snow.

You're right about west of storm surge issues though it impacts coastal areas and causes evacuations in cities like Long Beach.

 

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, Rjay said:

922mb on the 3k.  Looks legit 

 

 

It's too legit to quit!

Or maybe it will by the next run lol.

Or maybe it'll be sub 900 mb next

 

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

heaviest rains are 100 miles to the west with TC at our latitude, most of us care about rain not wind and surge.  East of storm is usually boring with paltry rainfall totals

 

So you don’t care about wind and surge with a TC.  Okay.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Lots of tornado warnings last night, phone was going crazy

4 tornado warnings but all north of here

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

So you don’t care about wind and surge with a TC.  Okay.

No wind and surge don't interest me, because I dont go to the beach.  I would rather not have wind because I dont want my roof to be blown off- so it's a concern, but after Sandy I definitely dont ever want to experience winds like that ever again and probably wont.  So I care about them in the sense that I dont want them.  I love things I can actually see- like rain and snow.

 

[Tatamy]

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

No wind and surge don't interest me, because I dont go to the beach.  I would rather not have wind because I dont want my roof to be blown off- so it's a concern, but after Sandy I definitely dont ever want to experience winds like that ever again and probably wont.  So I care about them in the sense that I dont want them.  I love things I can actually see- like rain and snow.

 

Do you have any recollection of the surge impacts from Sandy?  Those impacts spread beyond the beach.  They actually spread as far inland as the NJ Turnpike near Secaucus plus a few other low spots.

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Tatamy said:

Do you have any recollection of the surge impacts from Sandy?  Those impacts spread beyond the beach.  They actually spread as far inland as the NJ Turnpike near Secaucus plus a few other low spots.

Yeah it was horrible.  I know the impact of it is bad, but I mean it's not something I ever want to experience and I dont want anyone else to experience it either.  Honestly, I'll be super happy once we have climate control and limit the destruction to lives and property that weather events cause.  I dont mind a few inches of rain and some wind (like in the 30-50 mph area, thats not really destructive.)  But 60+ mph winds and high surge are too destructive to really be something to look forward to.  Of course your tastes may vary.