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Hurricane/Tropical Storm Elsa


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I’d expect TS watches to go up for other coastal areas north of VA Beach sometime today.

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
544 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

ANZ632>634-638-652-654-656-658-071745-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.TR.A.1005.210707T0944Z-000000T0000Z/
Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA-
Currituck Sound-
Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including
the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel-
James River from James River Bridge to Hampton Roads Bridge-
Tunnel-
Coastal waters from Chincoteague to Parramore Island VA out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Parramore Island to Cape Charles Light VA out
20 nm-Coastal Waters from Cape Charles Light to Virginia-
North Carolina border out to 20 nm-
Coastal waters from NC VA border to Currituck Beach Light NC out
20 nm-
544 AM EDT Wed Jul 7 2021

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT...

* WHAT...For the Atlantic waters and the Currituck Sound, south to
  southeast winds winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt,
  becoming southwest. For the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River,
  south to southeast winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt,
  becoming southwest. Waves 2 to 4 feet in the James River, 2 to 3
  feet in the Currituck Sound, 3 to 6 feet in the lower Bay, and
  6 to 9 feet in the Atlantic Ocean.

* WHERE...The Atlantic coastal waters from Chincoteague to
  Currituck Beach Light NC, the Chesapeake Bay from New Pt Comfort
  to Cape Henry, the James River from the James River Bridge to
  the Hampton Roads Bridge Tunnel, the Currituck Sound.


* WHEN...Thursday through Thursday night.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should consider altering plans to avoid possible
hazardous conditions. Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter
course, and/or secure the vessel for severe wind and waves.

 

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16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

 I might be bad at forecasting but even I know that this is a very scary looking model run for areas around DC and northeast. 

 

Some of that is just how the HWRF depicts banding features in tropical cyclones. No doubt there could be an iso tor threat to the east of the track - but I'm not sure I'd classify it was "very scary" 

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25 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

 I might be bad at forecasting but even I know that this is a very scary looking model run for areas around DC and northeast. 

image.png

Excellent - I am down at our place at Colonial Beach this week and that track would seem to put the center of the storm pretty much right over top of us.  That's a good bit west of the latest NHC track, though.

 

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Some of that is just how the HWRF depicts banding features in tropical cyclones. No doubt there could be an iso tor threat to the east of the track - but I'm not sure I'd classify it was "very scary" 

The westward shift overnight is pure Joy. The HWRF, HMON, NAM 3k and GEM all give my area much needed very beneficial rainfall on Thursday.

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4 minutes ago, stormy said:

The westward shift overnight is pure Joy. The HWRF, HMON, NAM 3k and GEM all give my area much needed very beneficial rainfall on Thursday.

I do need the rain and I think a lot of the form does so lets hope we get something out of this. 

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Some of that is just how the HWRF depicts banding features in tropical cyclones. No doubt there could be an iso tor threat to the east of the track - but I'm not sure I'd classify it was "very scary" 

It is for weenies living in an alternate universe
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It will be interesting to see what the euro does.  On average,  I think it has generally been west of the GFS with the storm.  Not sure whether that's a bias or it being better as I can't remember what it did last summer with tropical systems. 

 

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39 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

It will be interesting to see what the euro does.  On average,  I think it has generally been west of the GFS with the storm.  Not sure whether that's a bias or it being better as I can't remember what it did last summer with tropical systems. 

 

       I can't speak for the Euro, but the new version of the GFS that was implemented in March showed a notable right-of-track bias for TCs in retrospective hurricane season testing, especially for those moving north and then recurving.      It has been slowly adjusting to the west with Elsa's track through the southeast and Mid-Atlantic.

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