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June 2021 Discussion/Obs


CAPE
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Mount Holly AFD. Just like we said- we just cant know at this juncture lol.

Widespread showers with scattered thunderstorms will impact the area on Thursday with the passage of that cold front. 0-6 km Bulk Shear will be on the order of 35-45 kt, and PWATs will be in excess of 2.5 inches. From there, conditions become quite unsettled going into the Holiday weekend. The front gets hung up just south of the region, and a deep upper trough with a closed upper low will dig in from the west. Another round of showers and possible thunderstorms will impact the area Friday through Saturday. From there, things become even more uncertain. The ECMWF is much more progressive with the passage of that closed low, with it over eastern Canada by Sunday afternoon. The GFS, however, has it over the Great Lakes. Although there may be a break in the precip from Saturday night into Sunday morning, the divergence between the two models makes it hard to determine the pattern for Sunday afternoon through Monday. If the GFS wins out, it will be rainy. If the ECMWF wins out, Sunday and Monday will be dry.

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4 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z deterministic…hope for the EURO solution if you want a dry weekend….once EPS comes out will post ensembles.  Models don’t do any better in summer than they do in winter…

67A16440-87FF-4D44-9999-631FED1C8445.png

B54970B0-BD2B-46C8-8CE8-0A3F912829E5.png

CC351FB0-2D21-4C0D-881F-E97A7E665AB0.png

How much precip does Short Pump get?

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It looks like the major global models are finally converging on a similar outcome for the weekend. The 3 ens means look nearly the same now at h5. Euro is still the most progressive and would give the area a mostly dry Sunday, while the GFS and CMC still have some showers/rain moving through with the upper low. The overall trend looks drier as we head through the day Sunday, so by evening hopefully any showers will have exited.

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro cave to Team North America!

Eh, more of a meeting in the middle. I would argue the GFS caved more. Look what it did at h5 just over the last 3 runs. And still time for more adjustments either way.

gfs_z500a_us_21.png

 

gfs_z500a_us_18.png

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17 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The 0z EURO pummels N MD Friday into Sat btw. Parrs Ridge jack with 6"+ rain totals through Sunday AM.

ugh that does not bode well for a Saturday party 

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

ugh that does not bode well for a Saturday party 

Yes! 

My son's bday party is at the local pool on Saturday afternoon.. May need to reschedule. Looks like a monsoon for us in N MD Saturday morning on the Euro

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Just came across the Catoctins from Smithsburg to Thurmont. Car thermometer read 88 degrees coming through the Catoctin state park. My car thermometer might be a degree or 2 off but that's pretty darn extreme for this area at 1130 in the morning.. 

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8 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Just came across the Catoctins from Smithsburg to Thurmont. Car thermometer read 88 degrees coming through the Catoctin state park. My car thermometer might be a degree or 2 off but that's pretty darn extreme for this area at 1130 in the morning.. 

looked at the reading from my thermometer on the deck and it said 98.8.  It does have some indirect sunlight, so i think that is a little high, but just shocked to see that on the readout. 

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21 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Just came across the Catoctins from Smithsburg to Thurmont. Car thermometer read 88 degrees coming through the Catoctin state park. My car thermometer might be a degree or 2 off but that's pretty darn extreme for this area at 1130 in the morning.. 

We were very clear, pure blue sky this morning. When I drove to work, it looked like we could get hot fast, but getting a lot more cloud activity at my location now.  KNAK still clinging to 82f, but other stations 88,89,90, on the 11:55.   Still not humid/obnoxious enough to be considered high summer in central MD, but it's still only June.

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16 minutes ago, mattie g said:

As long as it’s not pouring on Saturday morning, I’m good. We have a home A meet that I’d love for us to get in. Looking more like the heavy stuff could be through by go time.

Same.  Need that to happen so we can hit the road and head to the eastern shore after

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