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Iso SVR late today, with a wind event Friday (mainly 2P Fri-2A Sat 4/30-5/1)


wdrag
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Please follow NWS (SPC/local offices) for additional information on the late Thursday afternoon-evening SVR threat. Confidence on SVR late today is less than a CAA wind event for late Friday.  

Used HRRR/EC/3KNAM for main guidance,  Richardson # projects strongest wind transfer of a descending jet Friday evening, after sunset.  Whether that occurs?  However lapse rates do increase substantially with the arrival of the cold pool aloft allowing opportunity for damaging wind gusts late Fri-Fri eve. 

No time for graphics-please follow up as you think best. This thread should serve as the thread for any damage reports. 

 

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For the record: You saw last evening's local storm reports for damage ne PA, extreme nw NJ which did result in a power outage here in Wantage around 830P with max G 37MPH.  Rainfall total was .19, most of that in 20 minutes.  Todays total now over .54" as we  make up for below normal April rainfall. 

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Downgraded to marginal risk for everyone today. Makes sense since this threat was pretty conditional overall and without much of a chance for instability the jet is the only thing that’ll generate much in the way of storms. Tomorrow’s wind threat will be the bigger issue, easy advisory gusts for everyone 

 

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

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From OKX morning AFD:

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front will move east of the region on Friday with a
tight pressure gradient developing. Gusty conditions on Friday
can be expected with gusts reaching 40-50 mph by Friday
afternoon into the first part of Friday night. A few isolated
peak gusts to 60 mph can not be ruled out. With peak foliage
occurring across parts of our region would expect to see some
tree damage with this event. At this time, we do not think wide
spread wind gusts will reach high wind warning criteria, however
it is likely wind advisories will be issued later today for the
entire region.
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While the forecast soundings are indicating only modest CAPE, the seasonally high PWATS signal the chance for some much needed rainfall. Maybe some locally strong to severe  storms if we can destabilize more than forecast with the decent shear. But most will be happy to get a soaking downpour.

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40 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

whole lot of nothing, lets see what the wind brings.

Same here - .01 on the day.  I wasn’t expecting an inch of rain today however today’s precip total definitely falls into the bust column.  Radar as of now does not look too promising.  Let’s see how we do with the predicted winds tomorrow.

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Quick check at 525A/30:  Axis of strongest winds aloft appears to be NYS/NJ to far w LI. Richardson # via 3K NAM says best chance of transfer 40-45 KT (ridges Poconos 50kt), is 8P-1A. NAM FOUS BL wind fcst (06z/30) suggests marginal for 40kt NYC east, with best chance in our area for sct 40 kt NJ/PA/Catskills. Still could see iso 50 kt, but thinking on that is only ridges  wnw of NYC.  Follow OKX/PHI statements.  

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Lapse rates really steepen next few hours. 45KT in the mixed layer should  produce gusts to 50 mph + by later this afternoon. Then a 50KT LLJ arrives this evening with the potential for some peak gusts to around 60 mph.


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Wind is up here on the hill. Most stations are 6-10mph sustained with gusts between 13-20 but with almost full leaf out most of those stations are below treetop level so not fully exposed and giving low numbers. Treetops are bending significantly and you can sense, if not hear, that roar. Branches down in 3, 2, 1...

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59 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Wind picking up here already. There could be plenty of wind damage reports later if the expected higher gusts are realized.

Yeah it's a little gusty. 

Widespread 45-50 mph gusts seem like a lock given the lapse rates. Not sure we'll get to 60 mph though.

The timing is a little off in terms of best mixing. 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Wind is up here on the hill. Most stations are 6-10mph sustained with gusts between 13-20 but with almost full leaf out most of those stations are below treetop level so not fully exposed and giving low numbers. Treetops are bending significantly and you can sense, if not hear, that roar. Branches down in 3, 2, 1...

Good morning gl, I heard the roar in the treetops above the row houses. Now it’ll be ‘sycamore branches incoming’ ..... pail covers outgoing. As always ....

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5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yeah it's a little gusty. 

Widespread 45-50 mph gusts seem like a lock given the lapse rates. Not sure we'll get to 60 mph though.

The timing is a little off in terms of best mixing. 

why are they predicting stronger winds in NJ and PA?  They have a High Wind Warning there, usually the coast has the strongest winds because it's flat land.

 

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9 hours ago, wdrag said:

Quick check at 525A/30:  Axis of strongest winds aloft appears to be NYS/NJ to far w LI. Richardson # via 3K NAM says best chance of transfer 40-45 KT (ridges Poconos 50kt), is 8P-1A. NAM FOUS BL wind fcst (06z/30) suggests marginal for 40kt NYC east, with best chance in our area for sct 40 kt NJ/PA/Catskills. Still could see iso 50 kt, but thinking on that is only ridges  wnw of NYC.  Follow OKX/PHI statements.  

why wouldnt there be a secondary maximum over the coastal regions, which are flat?  I thought it was puzzling the High Wind Warning was to our west.

 

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Wind reports are adding up:  45-near 50KT vicinity NYC, and this without the coldest core-strongest wind, yet. 

 

Graphics added at 338P.  This is turning into a high Wind event due in part to leaved trees. Maybe a few folks see small hail or flurries late today/tonight n of I80 in NJ/se NYS/PA and CT?

 

 

KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KALB: Albany, Albany Intl Arpt, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KBDR: Bridgeport, CT, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KBGM: Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KBOS: Boston, Logan Intl Arpt, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KBWI: Baltimore, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KCBE: Cumberland, MD, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KCKB: Clarksburg, Clarksburg Benedum Airport, WV, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KDCA: Reagan National Airport, DC, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KDYL: Doylestown, Doylestown Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KEWB: New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KEWR: Newark, Newark Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [46kt, 24m/s]

KFOK: Westhampton Beach, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KIJD: Willimantic, Windham Airport, CT, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KILG: Wilmington, New Castle County Airport, DE, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KJFK: JFK Intl Arpt, NY, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KLGA: New York, La Guardia Airport, NY, United States [49kt, 25m/s]

KLNS: Lancaster, Lancaster Airport, PA, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KMDT: Harrisburg, Harrisburg Intl Arpt, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KMJX: Toms River, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KMPO: Mount Pocono, PA, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KMQE: East Milton, MA, United States [45kt, 23m/s]

KMRB: Martinsburg, WV, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KNEL: Lakehurst, NJ, United States [44kt, 23m/s]

KORE: Orange, Orange Municipal Airport, MA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KPHL: Philadelphia, Philadelphia Intl Arpt, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KPKB: Parkersburg, WV, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KPLN: Pellston, MI, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KPNE: NE Philadelphia, PA, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KRDG: Reading, Reading Regional Airport, PA, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KROA: Roanoke, Roanoke Regional Airport, VA, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

KRSP: Campd David, MD, United States [48kt, 25m/s]

KRVL: Reedsville / Mifflin, PA, United States [42kt, 22m/s]

KSCH: Schenectady Airport, NY, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KSYR: Syracuse, Syracuse Hancock Intl Arpt, NY, United States [40kt, 21m/s]

KTNB: Boone, Watauga County Hospital Heliport, NC, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KTTN: Trenton, Mercer County Airport, NJ, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

KUNI: Ohio Univ. Airport, WV, United States [41kt, 21m/s]

KWRI: Mcguire AFB, NJ, United States [47kt, 24m/s]

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