March 2021 General Discussion

[Hoosier]

CFS for one sees a warmer than average month, as visions of Morch dance in weenies heads.  I'd take a more subdued warmer than average month.

 

 

[Torchageddon]

I was just looking for the March thread 30 mins ago and here it pops up .

Every single year we avoid in southern Ontario a legit winter storm during the month aside from a borderline case in 2016 I think it was, when a storm spilled over into the early morning hours of the 1st. Even though historically the worst storms and blizzards in SON were mainly in March. I see that continuing and obviously wish for warmth during early Spring.

[Chambana]

Such a bizarre winter, other than the period of 2/7-2/21 nothing to exciting about it. First week of March looks very mild, I have sunny and 55 in my forecast next Wednesday. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Models are targeting the March 6-7 period for a surge of warmth into the western sub... perhaps the first 50s or even 60s here.

[Angrysummons]

Also remember, wavelengths are widening so model performance between 120-168 hours is going to get worse.

[Stebo]

I'll buy wetter and warmer. Outside of the SSW induced cold we just had, its been a warm winter.

[Jonger]

23 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I'll buy wetter and warmer. Outside of the SSW induced cold we just had, its been a warm winter.

Just say, outside of February.

[Stebo]

Just now, Jonger said:

Just say, outside of February.

Orrrrrrr I can use a meteorological reason as to why it got cold in parts of February while on a weather forum. Yeah lets do that instead.

[michsnowfreak]

53 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I'll buy wetter and warmer. Outside of the SSW induced cold we just had, its been a warm winter.

Febs cold will essentially wipeout a mild Dec/Jan and this will show in the books as near avg temp winter.

[Stebo]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Febs cold will essentially wipeout a mild Dec/Jan and this will show in the books as near avg temp winter.

It will be close, the last few days of this month might edge it higher, but ya Feb has been pretty cold vs average here.

[Hoosier]

Since it was mentioned, this is approximately what Dec-Feb will look like.  I know everybody had the southern US colder than average in this Nina winter.  

 

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, Stebo said:

It will be close, the last few days of this month might edge it higher, but ya Feb has been pretty cold vs average here.

True. the last few days will likely take it out of top 20 coldest range but it'll easily be in the top 30 (148 yrs of record). Typically +/- 0.5° is considered an "average" winter but I still like to be technical with every tenth.of a.degree. The Feb snow bonanza we've been on is something else. I'll look into it soon. 

[hawkeye_wx]

The northern plains had such a warm December and January, even the long-duration February cold couldn't get them anywhere close to average for winter.  The lack of snow up there didn't help.

[RCNYILWX]

Looking like a near seasonal start to March locally then warming up on March 2-3. Euro ensemble showing a brief +PNA spike bringing a decent cool down later next week, followed by the ridge rolling east and warming us back up as already mentioned in a few posts.

Pattern should revert to -PNA out to mid month with no block, so a mild and active look. Parts of the northern Plains could make up for their poor winter in that pattern once it takes hold as Aleutian ridging should ensure the CONUS is not completely devoid of cold air. I'd be surprised if March doesn't finish solidly AN for a good chunk of the sub, though figure there will manage to be a snow threat at some point. Maybe this is finally the year we don't get completely unwanted blocking and snow in April.

Lastly, it's everyone's favorite time of year, ignore the NAM season. If only SPC had gotten that memo for April 7, 2020 lol.

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[madwx]

3 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Looking like a near seasonal start to March locally then warming up on March 2-3. Euro ensemble showing a brief +PNA spike bringing a decent cool down later next week, followed by the ridge rolling east and warming us back up as already mentioned in a few posts.

Pattern should revert to -PNA out to mid month with no block, so a mild and active look. Parts of the northern Plains could make up for their poor winter in that pattern once it takes hold as Aleutian ridging should ensure the CONUS is not completely devoid of cold air. I'd be surprised if March doesn't finish solidly AN for a good chunk of the sub, though figure there will manage to be a snow threat at some point. Maybe this is finally the year we don't get completely unwanted blocking and snow in April.

Lastly, it's everyone's favorite time of year, ignore the NAM season. If only SPC had gotten that memo for April 7, 2020 lol.

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Agree to that last part.  It’s been too low by about 8-12 degrees on the high temps the past 4 or 5 days

[RCNYILWX]

Agree to that last part.  It’s been too low by about 8-12 degrees on the high temps the past 4 or 5 days

There's something wrong with the NAM's boundary layer scheme that gives modeled snow depth super powers. This creates a feedback cycle in which the snow cover is melted far slower than in reality due to the phantom snow cover influence keeping temps cooler and the cooler temps not allowing the snow to fully melt. Very easy to see this in action on the 00z NAM via Pivotal Weather. Just compare the model snow depth to the modeled 2m temps.

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[WestMichigan]

12 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Since it was mentioned, this is approximately what Dec-Feb will look like.  I know everybody had the southern US colder than average in this Nina winter.  

 

Wat is up with that red spot east of Whichita Falls, TX surrounded by a sea of green?

[slow poke]

3 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Wat is up with that red spot east of Whichita Falls, TX surrounded by a sea of green?

I noticed that also, strange. So looking at this map it looks like MI will end up averaging 2-3 degrees warmer then average for Dec, Jan and Feb? Am I looking at that correctly? Also, looking back at the long range winter forecast that were made by some back in the Fall, did any of them predict this outcome I wonder. I know a couple of the ones I remember seeing were predicting colder then normal which was definitely wrong.

[Hoosier]

The final CFS went toward a less wet look for the sub... we'll see.  It has kept a warmer than average signal.

The last widespread warmer than average March was... 2020.  The perception in recent years is for slower starts to spring, and there's truth to that, so hopefully we don't deal with unwanted cold in April.

 

[Spartman]

Won't be really warm at all for the first week of March, though.

[cyclone77]

Welcome to spring!  Now have about 6-7" of snow cover left.  Snow is not nearly as deep as this time last week, but it still looks like deep winter with a very solid snow pack.  Have now had deep snow cover since Dec 29th, but by the end of this week this once impressive glacier will be probably down to scattered piles.

[chuckster2012]

41 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Welcome to spring!  Now have about 6-7" of snow cover left.  Snow is not nearly as deep as this time last week, but it still looks like deep winter with a very solid snow pack.  Have now had deep snow cover since Dec 29th, but by the end of this week this once impressive glacier will be probably down to scattered piles.

Snow completely gone now here in SE Indiana except for some dirty piles in parking lots. Had around 20" here in past 3 weeks. .

[OrdIowPitMsp]

0.7” overnight to kick off the month. 5” snowdepth will probably dwindle to just a trace by the weeks end. 

[CheeselandSkies]

Not a lot of significant precip in the 7-day. Had thought as of a week or two ago, there was a more active look for March? At the rate this melt is going, we are going to need to start seeing some rain or we will be looking at the risk of drought, as opposed to the spring flooding potential we were concerned about awhile ago.

I swear last year it took until well into May to so much as hear a rumble of thunder around here, which made the early, agonizing weeks of the pandemic/lockdown all the more frustrating.

[cyclone77]

Definitely would take a good downpour to wash all the remnant salt/grime off the roads.  It's good we avoided heavy rains during this massive meltoff for flooding reasons.

The bare ground is steadily advancing north, and is now not far from the I-80 corridor in IA/IL.

 

[frostfern]

3 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not a lot of significant precip in the 7-day. Had thought as of a week or two ago, there was a more active look for March? At the rate this melt is going, we are going to need to start seeing some rain or we will be looking at the risk of drought, as opposed to the spring flooding potential we were concerned about awhile ago.

I swear last year it took until well into May to so much as hear a rumble of thunder around here, which made the early, agonizing weeks of the pandemic/lockdown all the more frustrating.

I think there will be thunder nearby the week of the 8th.  Might just be cold rain given it's only March, but the current split-flow pattern will be over so there's at least a chance of a warm sector with mild temps and considerable gulf moisture.

[hawkeye_wx]

My backyard snow depth has fallen to 7-8".

[frostfern]

18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

My backyard snow depth has fallen to 7-8".

My yard has 4-5" crusty slush with big bare spots around the trees.  Wooded north-facing hills still have significant snow (like 6"+), but open fields and road medians are showing a lot of bare ground.  It stopped melting today, but I think 2-3 more 40 degree days will finally finish it off.

[A-L-E-K]

yeah need some rains to wash away the grime now

[Torchageddon]

I just had near-blizzard conditions for a moment or so when a LES band started to sag southwards, the most winter I've had this season just hours into met Spring (like March 3, 2012). My few minutes of winter fun are now finished for the season, yipee. After the band, blue skies and sun are appearing again.