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March 2021

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Morning thoughts...

After a few widely scattered snow flurries, today will be partly sunny and unseasonably cold. Temperatures will likely top out mainly in the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 36°

Newark: 37°

Philadelphia: 38°

Tomorrow will be fair and a bit milder. Next week will likely see the arrival of the warmest weather so far this season. Cooler weather could develop near or after mid-month.

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31 minutes ago, LVwhiteout said:

Walt - thought you would like to know. We just had half hour of easily moderate snow just 4 miles west of Allentown, Pa. that whitened everything up with a good dusting. Sides of roads were getting white. 32 degrees.  Over now but still lots of dark clouds!  

Yes. Think more  flurries than forecasters expected.  MPING loaded.   I am starting to like the navgem areal coverage for events, more and more.  It had this beating, yesterday. I think someone else on the forum is a proponent of the navgem.  This flurry situation continues into late tonight 

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17 hours ago, uncle W said:

NYC might start March with eight straight days with a minimum 32 or lower...March 2019 just missed when the 3rd had a min of 33...I believe the record is 17 from March 1st to 17th 1960...

Impressive cold shot when we are struggling to break 40 under clear sky’s in March 

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This was the 2nd most backloaded DJF period on Long Island since 2010. Only Nemo in 2013 featured a more lopsided February snowfall total relative to December and January. 09-10 was  more a bookend winter on Long Island.

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Dec
Jan
Feb
Season
2012-2013 0.6 3.3 31.4 35.3
2020-2021 7.5 1.1 24.9 33.5
2013-2014 8.1 25.2 24.5 57.8
2009-2010 25.3 6.4 21.7 53.4
2016-2017 3.2 14.0 14.7 31.9
2014-2015 0.4 30.2 13.4 44.0
2015-2016 T 24.8 13.2 38.0
2010-2011 14.9 34.4 3.9 53.2
2018-2019 T 0.9 3.5 4.4
2017-2018 6.0 22.0 1.4 29.4
2011-2012 T 3.8 0.6 4.4
2019-2020 4.2 2.5 0.0 6.7

12-13 was pretty lackluster here, Nemo was actually less interesting here than the storm we had this February.  The Groundhog Day storm as I'll call it dropped more snow.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Looks like we are in a warm up followed by cutter then cool down pattern. We finally get our first 60s and perhaps 70° warm up this week. Then the cutter and cool down again mid-month. Models are hinting at a warm up and another cutter around St. Patrick’s day. Then another cool down right after. Seems to be a battle between the more +AO pumping the SE Ridge and MJO 1 trying to flatten it out.  

0F151B99-CAFE-48D9-8645-662AC6573640.thumb.png.44303d99cf5f25133403f16f56eb5096.png

DCDED35C-0BC7-48FC-BA58-A6F8F4E7A95D.thumb.png.02973e612eebced8538dbb61df00eac6.png

 

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This doesn't sound like a snow pattern at all....it sounds like a more typical spring pattern with rainy and 40s and sunny and 60s.

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2 hours ago, LVwhiteout said:

Walt - thought you would like to know. We just had half hour of easily moderate snow just 4 miles west of Allentown, Pa. that whitened everything up with a good dusting. Sides of roads were getting white. 32 degrees.  Over now but still lots of dark clouds!  

Sounds like the mountains just to the north may have had more

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Most of the snow is gone here but there's still plenty in less exposed spots.  When you come across it on the trails it's pretty bullet proof, especially on north facing hills where spots are quite treacherous.

I took a walk on the trail that goes through my neighborhood yesterday evening:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CMEAP-YlkcD/?igshid=1e5gp2t8m7y0w

 

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Just went for a walk with wife and dog.  Definitely need spring weather.  Walking in cold, seeing trees with no leaves, grass dormant is just a depressing look.  Give me 70s, sun, green vegetation and a beer

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58 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Impressive cold shot when we are struggling to break 40 under clear sky’s in March 

3-4 days of it too

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2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Most of the snow is gone here but there's still plenty in less exposed spots.  When you come across it on the trails it's pretty bullet proof, especially on north facing hills where spots are quite treacherous.

I took a walk on the trail that goes through my neighborhood yesterday evening:

https://www.instagram.com/p/CMEAP-YlkcD/?igshid=1e5gp2t8m7y0w

 

I'd like to see 100 degree heat minus the humidity, so a west to northwest flow summer

 

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13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I'd like to see 100 degree heat minus the humidity, so a west to northwest flow summer

 

I think those days are gone...its either hot and humid or just humid...

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

I think those days are gone...its either hot and humid or just humid...

 

 

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Brrrr

604407160c8b1.png

More LR nonsense from the Gfs.

Looks like a back and forth pattern after this week's warm up. Probably a few cold days mixed in for mid-late March but nothing crazy.

AO still looks positive so don't expect prolonged cold even with favorable MJO.

I'm thinking we see 75F Thursday or Friday this week after a very cold (teens in spots that radiate) Monday morning.

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4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

More LR nonsense from the Gfs.

Looks like a back and forth pattern after this week's warm up. Probably a few cold days mixed in for mid-late March but nothing crazy.

AO still looks positive so don't expect prolonged cold even with favorable MJO.

I'm thinking we see 75F Thursday or Friday this week after a very cold (teens in spots that radiate) Monday morning.

What nonsense ? It is going to get cold after next week even if it is brief. Don't be shocked to see 1 more snow event.

 

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Tomorrow will be another cool day, capping a first week of March with temperature anomalies of 4°-6° below normal across the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas.

Early next week, a strong warming trend should commence. Parts of the region will likely see their warmest temperatures so far this year. The 60° isotherm will likely extend into southern and perhaps even central New England during the height of the warmth. Central Park will very likely see its first 60° reading since December 25 and perhaps its highest temperatures since late November.

Toward the latter part of the week, near or just after mid-month, temperatures could begin to cool as the AO falls sharply from its forecast peak.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.1°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around February 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.60°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through most of March.

The SOI was -2.73 today. The SOI has now been negative for seven consecutive days. The last time that occurred was October 14-20, 2020 when the SOI was negative for seven consecutive days. This development could be an early indication that what has been a fairly stable La Niña regime throughout the winter could be moving closer to its end stages.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.243 today.

On March 5 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.781 (RMM). The March 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.892 (RMM).

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 28.1" snow.

Winters that saw December receive 10" or more snow, less than 10" in January, and then 10" or more in February in New York City, saw measurable snowfall in March or April in 83% of cases. Winter 2009-2010 was the exception where only a trace of snow was recorded. This group of winters saw 6" or more snow during the March-April period in 50% of the cases. All said, it is more likely than not that there will be measurable snowfall after February.  

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 45degs.(37/54), or about +4.0.

Some snow (on the 15th. this time) is showing up.     About a 5-day warmup  precedes it.       The usual 'roll the dice' (GFS)to get the LR T's., goes from a high of 29* to 64* in two runs---for the 19th.

29*(50%RH) here at 6am.       31* by 10am.    38* by 2pm.       43* by 4pm.

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28 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Tug of war pattern coming up  between the warmer +AO and cooler MJO 8-1. The first week of March  had a brief -AO with colder MJO phases. Now the stronger +AO rise will give us our first 60s and possibly 70° of the year for the normally warmer parts of the region. Beyond this week, the AO looks to fall back less positive while the MJO stays in the cool phases. So a cool down following the warm up this week. Amplified storms will tend to cut with a piece of the SE Ridge holding on. So if you want to see some more measurable snow before the season ends, we would need a weaker sheared out system to try and slip underneath. But it may be a thread the needle type set up so don’t get hopes raised too high.

 

35BC4531-2CFF-4252-AE16-5941547F4141.thumb.png.e9c81fd7965f98d6dc930a592114429d.png


88DDB4CA-8C9A-433A-B7C5-4E63D5C91173.thumb.gif.cfafc19d909604f8432d338e95a4fb19.gif

24B2DD32-1598-4A65-A008-E4162C7FE894.gif.67f8263e9c434c322bc542fd03fcfec6.gif

 

 

The PV over the lakes would be nice this time around instead of when it was in January. Enjoy this week because the cold air will be back even if its brief.

6044d96f92ca1.png

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