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March 2021

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8 hours ago, bluewave said:

The models have been in push back mode recently. We were supposed to get the soaking rain last week. But the heaviest rains went to our south. Models had another soaker for us later next week. But now much of the moisture is forecast to stay  to our west. So we get a nice warm up and windy conditions. We’ll see if the Euro can finally deliver some soaking rains near the end of the month or that one gets pushed back also.

1C492256-E84F-4BF7-B457-E8315C87DE06.gif.f8a8c472b9ec3abe162ee4c941570f9c.gif


31334C01-F32F-407C-A891-BB99AFE5CF67.gif.aa82fb5f7729c9513f16c3f9177c4bf5.gif

 

Its a shame things have dried up for late week, we could really use the rain. We could be headed towards a "3 H" summer here with light precipitation amounts until tropical season really kicks into gear in August. We'll see

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The next 8 days are averaging 54degs.(46/62), or +8.0.

Month to date is 41.3[+0.3].      Should be 44.8[+2.5] by the 30th.

Now its King EURO with 5" of snow, where the GFS had 14" yesterday.   GFS remains under heavy sedation.      eke.

45*(71%RH) here at 6am        50*  by 10am.        Down  to 48* at 11am and back  to  50* by Noon.        51* by 2pm.       52* by 3pm.        55* at 4pm.      57* by 5pm.

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30F frost. high yesterday 65F.

Rockies weather. Very nice

 

33F at Cross County

39F at Bronx line

43F in Queens

 

The urban heat island on these above normal days always fascinates me in its strength.

 

 

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Morning thoughts...

At 7 am, temperatures in New York City, Newark and Philadelphia ranged from the middle 30s to lower 40s. Outside the cities, temperatures were in the upper 20s and lower 30s where a thick frost was present. Temperatures included: Allentown: 27°; Bridgeport: 33°; Danbury: 28°; Islip: 31°; New York City: 43°; Newark: 37°; Philadelphia: 35°; Poughkeepsie: 27°; Trenton: 31°; Westhampton: 26°; and, White Plains: 31°

Under bright sunshine, temperatures will rebound strongly. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 62°

Newark: 62°

Philadelphia: 64°

Tomorrow will be mainly fair and continued mild. Late in the week, there could be some showers and thundershowers, along with unseasonably warm readings.

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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

guessing the grass and some other vegetation will spring to life over the next 7 days with all this warmth

Daffodils are up here on the uws. Should be in full bloom by the end of the week. Hoping to salvage one more weekend on the mountain, but it’s not looking promising 

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KDXR 13 miles away and most locations in towns and along the lakes dropped into the high 20's early this morning but up here on the hill it stayed in the mid 30's. It's already 45 and climbing rapidly while it's still near freezing in town. 

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13 hours ago, tristateweatherFB said:

I lived in the Pelham parkway section for many years.  They kept saying they were going to build something on that land. What’s burning a lot of brush?

pretty much..doesn't look like much grows up there.  Just dried up grass and weeds as far as I could see, and whatever toxic trash is buried underneath. Its kind of surrounded by marshland so it looked hard to spread further.

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It's been in the 20s for several mornings, feels like the desert with these huge temperature swings.

The cold mornings and dry weather are probably why things aren't leafing out much yet despite 60s & sun during the day.

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1 hour ago, sferic said:

With which run today?

12z is the v16 upgrade & new operational going forward. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

It's been in the 20s for several mornings, feels like the desert with these huge temperature swings.

The cold mornings and dry weather are probably why things aren't leafing out much yet despite 60s & sun during the day.

Low dews are definitely a factor. Things will really jump Thursday and Friday with high dew warm combo. 

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14 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

Its a shame things have dried up for late week, we could really use the rain. We could be headed towards a "3 H" summer here with light precipitation amounts until tropical season really kicks into gear in August. We'll see

The Euro and CAMS have some elevated convection with this feature on Wednesday. But it’s hard to tell how widespread the coverage will be. Maybe we can get something.

230EB9F7-F20B-4A96-BBA6-7C163C82FEB4.thumb.png.7d650661e98426b73bc990e069acb79f.png

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We are on track for our first 2 consecutive warmer than average Marches since 2011-2012. March was one of our few colder months of the year from 2013 to 2019. November has been the other cooler month but we had record warmth this year.

NY Coastal Climate Division

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/1/3/2010-2020?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

202003 45.0°F 8 5.2°F
201903 38.8°F 5 -1.0°F
201803 38.8°F 6 -1.0°F
201703 37.7°F 3 -2.1°F
201603 45.8°F 10 6.0°F
201503 35.1°F 1 -4.7°F
201403 35.5°F 2 -4.3°F
201303 38.7°F 4 -1.1°F
201203 47.9°F 11 8.1°F
201103 40.8°F 7 1.0°F
201003 45.4°F 9 5.6°F


20408902-7493-426A-9764-7CE237800E25.thumb.png.33f6f1dbc348f939ba114d66e2961621.png

 

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Temperatures rose into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region this afternoon after a frosty start outside the big cities. Tomorrow will be another mainly sunny and springlike day. Afterward, Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some showers, along with cooler temperatures.

Much above normal temperatures are likely on Thursday and Friday. In addition, some showers and possibly thundershowers are possible.

A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief.

Newfoundland and Labrador saw a number of record high temperatures. High temperatures included:

Churchill Falls: 52° (old record: 45°, 2012)
Goose Bay: 53° (old record: 51°, 2000)
Hopedale: 42° (old record: 40°, 1946)
Mary's Harbour: 55° (old record: 42°, 2000)

There remains some potential for another day of near record to record warm temperatures in eastern Canada tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.81 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.609 today.

The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes.

April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018.

Select April Statistics:

1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1
1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3
1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2
1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0
1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0

Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013

Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926

Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015

Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901

Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020

Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (2.1° above normal).

 

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5 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Temperatures rose into the upper 50s to lower 60s across the region this afternoon after a frosty start outside the big cities. Tomorrow will be another mainly sunny and springlike day. Afterward, Wednesday will be mostly cloudy with some showers, along with cooler temperatures.

Much above normal temperatures are likely on Thursday and Friday. In addition, some showers and possibly thundershowers are possible.

A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures is now underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief.

Newfoundland and Labrador saw a number of record high temperatures. High temperatures included:

Churchill Falls: 52° (old record: 45°, 2012)
Goose Bay: 53° (old record: 51°, 2000)
Hopedale: 42° (old record: 40°, 1946)
Mary's Harbour: 55° (old record: 42°, 2000)

There remains some potential for another day of near record to record warm temperatures in eastern Canada tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses.

The SOI was +9.81 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +3.609 today.

The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes.

April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018.

Select April Statistics:

1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1
1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3
1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2
1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0
1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0

Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013

Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926

Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015

Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901

Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020

Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874   

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 93% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.6° (2.1° above normal).

 

Don these artificial Central Park temps are really deceptive.  We had a very thick heavy frost here in SW LI and the NYC temp is heavily influenced by artificial human structures.

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The next 8 days are averaging 52degs.(44/60), or +6.0.

Month to date is 41.6[+0.6].         Should be 44.4[+2.2] by the 31st.

EURO still has a Trace on the 30th.        Nutty T swings possible on the GFS going into April.

45*(98%RH) here at 6am.     Distant fog.      44* at 7am.         48* by 10am with hazy skies.        51* at  11am, but back to 49* at Noon.       53* at 2pm.      54* at 3pm, sea fog.       57* at 4pm.       58* near 6pm.       52* at 7pm.

 

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Morning thoughts...

Morning fog will burn off and give way to a partly sunny day. Clouds could become more noticeable during the afternoon or evening. High temperatures will likely reach the lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 63°

Newark: 63°

Philadelphia: 66°

Tomorrow will be mainly cloudy and cooler with some showers. Much warmer air will arrive for Thursday and Friday.

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