uncle W Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible. No snow at all in January and March. you can say that about these winters which were 40"...2005-06...1959-60...winters like 2007-08 are nothing winters... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible. No snow at all in January and March. February was one of the best hardcore winter months we've ever had though. Very rare to have snow on the ground for 4 weeks straight in this area. That, combined with the fact that we had a nice December snowstorm, puts this winter in the *very good* category for me. Even though January was bad. 40 inches is a very good winter. I had 44 here, to be exact. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 12 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: February was one of the best hardcore winter months we've ever had though. Very rare to have snow on the ground for 4 weeks straight in this area. That, combined with the fact that we had a nice December snowstorm, puts this winter in the *very good* category for me. Even though January was bad. 40 inches is a very good winter. I had 44 here, to be exact. No complaints here. Alot of our big winters feature a short but big dump of snow. 2010-11 is another year it all came within about 30 days. Rest of the winter was largely snowless 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 24, 2021 Author Share Posted March 24, 2021 On the GFSv16 upgrade: Unsure if this is anywhere in American Weather. Below from Phys.org US weather model upgraded to better forecast extreme events by Seth Borenstein In this Monday, March 15, 2021 file photo, snow covers vehicles parked along Second Avenue after a powerful late winter storm dumped more than 2 feet of snow in Denver. The storm shut down major roadways, canceled school and closed the state legislature. On Monday, March 22, 2021, the National Weather Service upgraded its forecast model, with an eye on predicting extreme weather events better and faster. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) The National Weather Service has turbocharged its lagging forecast model to better predict extreme weather events such as hurricanes, blizzards and downpours, as well as day-to-day weather. By including much higher layers of the atmosphere, increased factoring of ocean waves and other improvements, the weather service's update to its Global Forecast System is trying to catch up with a European weather model that many experts consider superior. Tests for the past two years show the upgrade, which kicked in Monday, forecast heavy rains and snowfall 15% better five days out and improved hurricane and tropical storm tracks by more than 10%, better pinpointing storm formation five to seven days in advance. Forecasters say this new model does not predict more rain and snow than actually arrives, which its predecessor had a tendency to do. The new model was significantly better at forecasting the massive Colorado snowstorm earlier this month, getting the storm arrival time and snow amounts far more accurately than the older version, said Vijay Tallapragada, chief of modeling at the agency's Environmental Modeling Center. Internal studies also showed the new model was generally more accurate earlier on downpours in the Southeast in February 2020, Hurricane Dorian in 2019 and Hurricane Michael in 2018. "This is for the general day-to-day forecasting and for the extreme events, and you've got to get both right," said National Weather Service Director Louis Uccellini. One main improvement is that the new model captures the atmosphere up to 50 miles high (80 kilometers)—far higher than the old one and has higher resolution at different levels, weather service officials said. This way it better characterizes the jet stream, which transports storms, they said. Over the past 31 days, there was a stretch of eight straight days when this new version beat the highly-touted European forecast model, but in general over the period the European version was still better, Uccellini said. "Extreme weather events are becoming stronger and happening more often in a changing climate," said Bernadette Woods Placky, chief meteorologist at Climate Central's Climate Matters program, who wasn't part of the upgrade. "Weather forecasting improvements that increase accuracy and warning time will give people more time to prepare and will save lives." 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 38 minutes ago, wdrag said: On the GFSv16 upgrade: Unsure if this is anywhere in American Weather. Below from Phys.org It looks like the GFS v16 moved into 2nd place ahead of the CMC and UKMET for the last 30 days. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gfs/ops/grid2grid/acc/ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 juicy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Outside of the December monster it was a 3 week winter.... Yep, outside of the mid-December snowstorm that was gone within a week and 60 degrees on Christmas, it was a 3 week winter (2/1-2/22), January was a total nothing burger then it was lights out completely, nothing at all since 2/22.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 100% snowcover for more than 1/3 of met winter is a win. I don't care how it comes. Getting a week of coverage in December, even if it melted with 60 degree temps, isn't super common. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, FPizz said: 100% snowcover for more than 1/3 of met winter is a win. I don't care how it comes. Getting a week of coverage in December, even if it melted with 60 degree temps, isn't super common. what's common the last 15 years is the Xmas warmup-seems like it's been 55-65 right around xmas for a bunch of years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Wasn’t expecting 60’s today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cfa said: Wasn’t expecting 60’s today. yeah, more sun than expected-just faded away here a few minutes ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 I dont know if its just me but it feels more humid then it is. DP only 48 but to me it felt more like the upper 50s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 26 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: I dont know if its just me but it feels more humid then it is. DP only 48 but to me it felt more like the upper 50s Dew of 51 here...feels great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 52 minutes ago, SRRTA22 said: I dont know if its just me but it feels more humid then it is. DP only 48 but to me it felt more like the upper 50s Cause it's been SO dry recently. Wait till tomorrow and Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted March 24, 2021 Author Share Posted March 24, 2021 No thread initiation by myself, since confidence on anything more than scattered G 43KT for 3/26, 29, 4/1-2 is below average. It will be windy at times. Go for it if you're confident, especially if systems amp up to sfc G50-55 kt potential, in our subforum. No leafout yet, probably favors a little lower chance of wind damage problems but wet ground may compensate for easier uproots. Still think we need to see more wind in the surface based instability part of the sounding. Events previously the past 12 months had about 75-90kt at 850MB, and 10m winds around 40kt along the LI coasts, with EC modeled sfc G all showing 50kt+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 this is a slam dunk for 50kt gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 7 hours ago, MJO812 said: If it wasn't for the snow event in December and the big snowstorm in early February , this winter would have been terrible. No snow at all in January and March. Haha. You got a 35 inch winter in Brooklyn and most of it fell in three weeks. We had winter in winter this year. March snow is overrated 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 4 hours ago, snowman19 said: Yep, outside of the mid-December snowstorm that was gone within a week and 60 degrees on Christmas, it was a 3 week winter (2/1-2/22), January was a total nothing burger then it was lights out completely, nothing at all since 2/22.... Niña February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 The drought talk was so silly 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 7 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The drought talk was so silly and so is saying this winter wasn't that good...I would take this winter over any winter from 1979-1992... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 23 minutes ago, uncle W said: and so is saying this winter wasn't that good...I would take this winter over any winter from 1979-1992... 100% agree. This was the best winter since 2015 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Most of our snow comes in a 3-4 week period. In the snowy winters of 09-10 and 10-11 most of the snow fell in a similar timeframe. If you’re disappointed about 40 inches of snow in the heart of winter then you should consider moving. The outlooks for this winter, including our great snowman19, were for warmth and no snow. So we definitely got lucky from the ssw 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: and so is saying this winter wasn't that good...I would take this winter over any winter from 1979-1992... These winter ratings are really subjective and can vary quite a bit from location to location. Northern NJ back to NE PA had a great snowfall outcome. Long Island snowfall was good but not great by recent standards. All the epic snowstorms since 03 have really raised the bar on what is considered a good or great winter. As for the 79-92 period, I enjoyed 81-82 and 82-83 more than this winter. Getting close to the jackpot of an historic storm is more important to me like February 83 and April 82. My 3 favorite snowfall seasons since 09-10 were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 2 hours ago, Allsnow said: 100% agree. This was the best winter since 2015 I think 17-18 was better tbh. This year was really saved by 3 weeks in February. No snow in March is disappointing too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: These winter ratings are really subjective and can vary quite a bit from location to location. Northern NJ back to NE PA had a great snowfall outcome. Long Island snowfall was good but not great by recent standards. All the epic snowstorms since 03 have really raised the bar on what is considered a good or great winter. As for the 79-92 period, I enjoyed 81-82 and 82-83 more than this winter. Getting close to the jackpot of an historic storm is more important to me like February 83 and April 82. My 3 favorite snowfall seasons since 09-10 were 10-11, 15-16, and 17-18. I liked the storms when I was younger better...40" snow seasons are the new norm...from 1969-70 to 1992-93 there was only one winter with 40" or more and that year was 1977-78...we have exceeded. that winter six times since 1995...my favorite snowstorm as a kid is a toss up of March 1960 and Dec 1960...as a middle aged man Jan 1996 is a favorite and maybe alltime favorite depending on what side of the bed I woke up that day...recent favorite storm is the Dec 2010... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 Our coming period of very windy cutters will produce another wave break in early April. It will be interesting to see how long that period of blocking lasts. These wave breaks that pop up in the 6-10 range make the day 11-15 forecasts very uncertain. New run Old run 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted March 24, 2021 Share Posted March 24, 2021 this is on track to be ewr's first 1" or greater precip event since the big snowstorm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Temperatures topped out in the 50s across the region today as rain moved in. Up north, parts of Quebec saw record high temperatures earlier today. Records included: Quebec City: 59° (old record: 48°, 2000); Rivière-du-Loup: 56° (old record: 46°, 2000); and, Trois-Rivières: 54° (old record: 47°, 2000). Through 8 pm EDT, rainfall totals included: Allentown: 0.80" Atlantic City: 1.78" (old record: 0.98", 1952) Baltimore: 1.55" (old record: 1.22", 1989) Harrisburg: 0.58" Islip: 0.15" New York City-JFK: 0.33" New York City-LGA: 0.76" New York City-NYC: 0.87" Newark: 1.01" Philadelphia: 1.53" (old record: 1.24”, 1989) Washington, DC: 1.69" (old record: 1.45", 1905) Wilmington, DE: 1.77" (old record: 1.32", 1989) Rain will move away from the region later tonight. Before then, much of the northern Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas will have seen 0.50"-1.50" rain with locally higher amounts in excess of 2.00". Tomorrow and Friday will be much warmer days. Friday will likely be the warmest day so far this year. Highs in the region will reach the upper 60s and lower 70s tomorrow and lower to middle 70s with some upper 70s on Friday. Some showers and even thundershowers are possible, especially on Friday. In terms of records, daily record high temperatures could be challenged or broken tomorrow across upstate New York, parts of northern New England, and Quebec. Daily records are possible in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas on Friday. A sustained period of above to much above normal temperatures remains underway. In general, above normal temperatures will persist through the end of March. Any cool shots will likely be modest and brief. Some of the guidance suggests that a cold shot and at least some snow could affect northern New England near the end of March. April could start out on the cool side. However, historic experience following a warm to very warm March suggests a probability that is skewed toward a warmer than normal April. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.5°C for the week centered around March 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.08°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C. La Niña conditions will likely give way to neutral-cool ENSO conditions as the spring progresses. The SOI was +7.80 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +4.278 today. Since 1950, only 1978, 1986, and 2020 saw the AO reach or exceed +4.000 during the March 20-31 period. The 31° temperature recorded at Central Park on March 19 was likely New York City's last freeze of 2020-21 based on a combination of the latest ensemble guidance and the diminishing frequency of April freezes. April freezes have become less frequent in recent years. During the 1991-2020 base period, there were 12 cases where the last freeze occurred in April. The last time the temperature fell to freezing in April occurred in 2018. Select April Statistics: 1951-80: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.1 1961-90: Years with freezes: 17; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.3 1971-00: Years with freezes: 16; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.2 1981-10: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 1991-20: Years with freezes: 12; Mean days with lows of 32° or below: 1.0 Least years with freezes: 10, 1984-2013 Most years with freezes: 26, 1874-1903, 1880-1909, 1895-1924, 1896-1925, and 1897-1926 Lowest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 0.8, 1983-2012, 1984-2013, 1985-2014, and 1986-2015 Highest number of average days with temperatures of 32° or below: 3.7, 1871-1900 and 1872-1901 Least days in April with temperatures of 32°: 0, Most Recent: 2020 Most days in April with temperatures of 32°: 11, Most Recent: 1874 Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 99% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal March. March will likely finish with a mean temperature near 44.9° (2.4° above normal). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Nice little rainstorm.... 1.20" here so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 25, 2021 Share Posted March 25, 2021 Over a inch now and counting.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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