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February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat


NorthHillsWx
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Just now, eyewall said:

I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now.

If that means cold rain in Triad sign me up.  Versus ZR. 

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Just now, eyewall said:

I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now.

They have already scaled back.
This is definitely a bigger chance of impact for my area than the last 2 FZRA systems.  However, I'm expecting nothing more than a glaze to .1" in Wake, other than perhaps the extreme NW corner.  I'm completely fine with that since it is just freezing rain with no snow!  

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6 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I said earlier we saw this more than once this winter where the models get aggressive as we close in on an event only to pull back at the last second. It got RAH a couple of times. I wonder if we are seeing it again now.

I understand, but what causes the 24hr swings? I mean should we just take the most southerly trend and push it back 50 miles even before guidance does? Basically I’m trying to understand what happened since 11 last night to cause it ..... is it as simple as Climo?

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3 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

I understand, but what causes the 24hr swings? I mean should we just take the most southerly trend and push it back 50 miles even before guidance does? Basically I’m trying to understand what happened since 11 last night to cause it ..... is it as simple as Climo?

It's all part of forecasting.  Not just interpreting the models, but trying to predict ahead of time where they will end up at go time.  Not easy

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Just now, AirNelson39 said:


That’s crazy! I’m in southern Caldwell east of 321 and I’m at 34.2/26.7

That’s a wild difference but we kinda sit in a small valley between two creeks. I consistently run 3-4 degrees below the airport each night. It’s a weird little microclimate.

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9 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Still stars and moon here in Kvegas just east of Winston.  Breeze makes it quite a chilly evening.  35 and static electricity dewpoints.  I think we got this one in our sights.

Just went out and put the covers on the car's side mirrors and windshield.  I'm 5 miles north of Kville and wondering if I should have forced wife to bale out and gotten ourselves a hotel down south somewhere for the duration.  Too much politics involved in marrying a farmer's daughter who was raised to tough things out

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