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NorthHillsWx

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

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5 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said:

Thanks to you and bullcity. If i were still in NOVA I wouldn't have to ask, it would just be snow and more snow :)

Was going to make the run to my sons place in Purcellville. Looks like he will get some ice with this as well so staying put.

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5 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said:

Thanks to you and bullcity. If i were still in NOVA I wouldn't have to ask, it would just be snow and more snow :)

I'm in Cary and not really changing any of my MO for this event if that means anything wrt to your location

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2 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Actually, snow then lots of sleet and ice expected in the DMV

Hope it crushes DC, supposed to head up there Friday.

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Boy.. forecasted high of 39 today. Just got to 32.0 and 17.9 dew point. Also @HKY_WX I’m patiently waiting for that map you said you were going to post today. Haven’t seen one of your maps in awhile. Let’s me know you see this being a major player.

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9 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro doesn't even really drop it below freezing here and it definitely is warmer

High elevation.  The cold dense air is sinking past you.

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Alamance-Burlington just cancelled school for tomorrow.  They even cancelled the online classes

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17 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Euro doesn't even really drop it below freezing here and it definitely is warmer

Looking at the Euro at this point is going to be a bit coarse and granular.  Sort of like counting hairs on someone’s head with a wide angle lens a quarter mile away.

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6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

High elevation.  The cold dense air is sinking past you.

I'm at 1,250 so no. Most models are showing a weaker wedge and higher dewpoints 

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As I mentioned earlier, the southward trend has definitely stabilized and even reversed in some instances. 

No changes to my earlier map. But gut says its going to be difficult to get the Hwy74 corridor below freezing for any real long length of time.

We will see.

**Edited to clarify Hwy 74 corridor Gastonia-CLT-Monroe**

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Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. 

 

Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. 

image.png.99b818c049992014d935dc80eaf6bde9.png

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Just now, WeatherWeenie87 said:

Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. 

 

Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. 

image.png.99b818c049992014d935dc80eaf6bde9.png

The storm is 18 hours away and you're calling it a bust?

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Just now, WeatherWeenie87 said:

Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. 

 

Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. 

image.png.99b818c049992014d935dc80eaf6bde9.png

The wet bulb map will be pretty useless until we see how much quick cooling we see early this evening before clouds thicken up. 

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As I mentioned earlier, the southward trend has definitely stabilized and even reversed in some instances. 
No changes to my earlier map. But gut says its going to be difficult to get the Hwy74 corridor below freezing for any real long length of time.
We will see.
**Edited to clarify Hwy 74 corridor Gastonia-CLT-Monroe**

Matt, same idea as you head west on 74 back into Cleveland and Rutherford?


.

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Just now, strongwxnc said:


Matt, same idea as you head west on 74 back into Cleveland and Rutherford?


.

I am leaving things status quo for now....but the warmer solutions are especially evident around the CLT metro. 

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3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The storm is 18 hours away and you're calling it a bust?

don't see where he called it a bust, just giving his opinion...as everyone else is.  Honestly, not getting half an inch of ice isn't what i'd call a bust anyways...id call it a blessing

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4 minutes ago, SUNYGRAD said:

NAM3k is lightly cooler overall at 18z at 850 than above depiction.  

NAM 3k running close or a little warmer with pocket of warmer temps in SW NC.  It depends upon sounding location that you pick.  

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9 minutes ago, WeatherWeenie87 said:

Feel sorry for the NWS folks. I have a feeling this might be a NC/VA border Ice Storm. HRRR, NAM, and Euro have verified warmer than forecast. If this would have happened 10 to 20 years ago, this would have been almost all snow. This is why analogs are useless now. 

 

Almost all of NC is above freezing wet bulb temperatures now. 

image.png.99b818c049992014d935dc80eaf6bde9.png

No way..... CAD is normally  Better than Modeled. I would Think Anyone North of HWY73/152 will be just fine as far as Cold those areas always stay Colder longer. 

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2 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

No way..... CAD is normally  Better than Modeled. I would Think Anyone North of HWY73/152 will be just fine as far as Cold those areas always stay Colder longer. 

 

11 minutes ago, msuwx said:

The wet bulb map will be pretty useless until we see how much quick cooling we see early this evening before clouds thicken up. 

We will see. I'm sticking with my thoughts. I respect your opinions. 

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