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2021 Mid-Atlantic Severe Weather - General Discussion


Kmlwx
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Just a very rudimentary analysis - but we are cooked for a while it seems on severe potential (outside of a sneaky surprise or an isolated threat). 

Looking at the CIPS run from overnight, most of the US is devoid of major swaths of severe analog probs through the 120hr mark. Then...the extended range does show some promise - but mainly to our west and south and very late in the run. 

Looking at the GFS - the juicy dewpoints do try to make a run at us but get shunted largely to the south and then we get dry dewpoints again. Excellent look for comfortable weather through the run...not so nice if you're straining at the bit for more storm chances. 

I could see this being a bit of a rubber band style pattern - we go weeks and weeks with not a lot to track - and then something changes and bam we go on a heater for a week or two (or longer). Either that or we just have a very, very quiet later spring/early summer severe season. 

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23 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Just a very rudimentary analysis - but we are cooked for a while it seems on severe potential (outside of a sneaky surprise or an isolated threat). 

Looking at the CIPS run from overnight, most of the US is devoid of major swaths of severe analog probs through the 120hr mark. Then...the extended range does show some promise - but mainly to our west and south and very late in the run. 

Looking at the GFS - the juicy dewpoints do try to make a run at us but get shunted largely to the south and then we get dry dewpoints again. Excellent look for comfortable weather through the run...not so nice if you're straining at the bit for more storm chances. 

I could see this being a bit of a rubber band style pattern - we go weeks and weeks with not a lot to track - and then something changes and bam we go on a heater for a week or two (or longer). Either that or we just have a very, very quiet later spring/early summer severe season. 

I remember how quiet 2018 was for much of the spring. But then we got into an active severe period in mid-May (especially May 12th- 15th). Hopefully we do something like that this year as opposed to last year when we just flipped to weak shear summer. 2012 was also quiet before the end of May that year.

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The low dewpoints depicted mostly throughout the run lately on the GFS have been impressive. Other than a short window of 60s dews in the middle of the run (near the 180hr mark) the dewpoints remain low for this time of year. Very non-soupy. 

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lots of thunder yesterday afternoon 1pmish. was at a birthday party in New Freedom, PA when a cell formed almost overhead. Constant rumbles. Then another from the south formed near my house and moved northeast, thunder with that one too.

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2 hours ago, mappy said:

lots of thunder yesterday afternoon 1pmish. was at a birthday party in New Freedom, PA when a cell formed almost overhead. Constant rumbles. Then another from the south formed near my house and moved northeast, thunder with that one too.

Yeah, it was odd, as there was only like a 20% chance of "scattered showers" forecasted, but skies grew pretty dark to our north around that time, and even here in NoVA I heard a rumble of thunder or two with just a few sprinkles. Radar definitely looked more vigorous up your way and in southern PA.

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29 minutes ago, vastateofmind said:

Yeah, it was odd, as there was only like a 20% chance of "scattered showers" forecasted, but skies grew pretty dark to our north around that time, and even here in NoVA I heard a rumble of thunder or two with just a few sprinkles. Radar definitely looked more vigorous up your way and in southern PA.

I hoped my power washing would have brought the rain.  Nothing but a couple sprinkles

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Just now, yoda said:

Would be nice to see/hear some good storms... interestingly no mention in the SPC 4-8 day OTLK of anything nearby or even in the LWX AFD this morning

It could just as easily be into June that we are waiting to see anything decent. 

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15 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

CC: @mappy and @Ian

So, the Ranson tornado hit immediately north of your location, @wxtrix? I vaguely recall @Mrs.J talking about the issuance of tornado warning for her stretch that afternoon. Those storms lost some punch once they got to the metro area and south but I do remember the wx radio going off a bunch of times that day.

 

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6 hours ago, yoda said:

Looks like Wednesday will be our first chance in a while to see some "severe" and have some storms... MRGL risk for some gusty to damaging winds

       Nice for sure to be "back in the game".      Tomorrow certainly has some modest potential.     Deep layer shear is going to be close to the lower thresholds for severe - the question seems to be how much will the moisture mix out.    The NAM nest has been consistently keeping much higher low-level dew points, while the HRRR has been most aggressive with the mixing and lowers the dew points the most.      The NAM nest therefore has the most widespread convection, while the HRRR has the least.    The other CAMs are for the most part in the middle in terms of low-level moisture and in coverage of storms, so I think that a MRGL is ok for now, with potential to go to SLGT if the mixing of moisture ends up to be less of a factor.

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It's overall continued to be a very, very quiet May for the region. Question becomes whether we will get slapped around to break the quiet streak - or if it'll continue or just end with a whimper and a few storms.

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30 minutes ago, toolsheds said:

Ugh....daughter has a softball doubleheader at Westminster High at 4:00.  Looks like we would be very lucky to get game 1 in or even started.  

ha, meanwhile I am hoping it rains and my kid's baseball game is cancelled. I need an evening with no where to go :lol: 

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