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February 14-16 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier
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ORD just NW of band which had drifted a couple miles south recently

 

1200 PM     SNOW             OHARE AIRPORT           41.98N 87.90W  
02/15/2021  M1.6 INCH        COOK               IL   OFFICIAL NWS OBS   
  
            SNOW TOTAL AS OF 12 PM.   

1200 PM SNOW 3 SW MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.75N 87.79W   02/15/2021

M2.4 INCH COOK IL OFFICIAL NWS OBS     SNOW TOTAL AS OF 12 PM.

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6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

BTW, I would definitely be salty about missing this storm if the EURO ends up correct, lol.

 So do the kuchera weatherbell maps for the euro look the same and show the same amounts as the pivotal euro kuchera you just posted? Or are they usually slightly different?

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12 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Well damn!!!

When's the last time we saw these areas share a widespread 12-15" snowstorm?

image.thumb.png.4af03c46ba2906a5e3b8029ccd0426ed.png

image.thumb.png.b5c48651352bbb92dda737f9b93ea4cb.png

NW tick which I is better aligned with the track of the 850/700 low.  These Kuchera maps are dangerous because I think they're based on 17-18:1 ratios which is lofty but even if you shave 5" off those totals...sold!

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35 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

ILX finally on the ball

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GALESBURG, TOULON, PEORIA, LACON, EUREKA,  
CANTON, PEKIN, RUSHVILLE, HAVANA, AND BEARDSTOWN  
1201 PM CST MON FEB 15 2021  
  
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST  
TUESDAY...   
..WIND CHILL WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT NOON CST TODAY  
  
* WHAT...SNOW. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES.  
  
* WHERE...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  

They bumped this area of their warning up as well.

 

Screenshot_20210215-123904_Chrome.thumb.jpg.b7bf2c11945843f1e425cb33a83ad39d.jpg

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1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

NW tick which I is better aligned with the track of the 850/700 low.  These Kuchera maps are dangerous because I think they're based on 17-18:1 ratios which is lofty but even if you shave 5" off those totals...sold!

Well, the Kuchera maps have been spot on with the snow down here, FWIW. 

They even pegged the snow amounts in San Antonio and Austin right. 

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2 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Well, the Kuchera maps have been spot on with the snow down here, FWIW. 

They even pegged the snow amounts in San Antonio and Austin right. 

Furthermore, if the maps are based on 17:1 ratios, I know areas down south were hitting 20:1 ratios apparently, so it would make sense if those turn out to be correct, but of course, I'm not qualified to speak on whether that will continue up here.

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5 minutes ago, miamarsden8 said:

Furthermore, if the maps are based on 17:1 ratios, I know areas down south were hitting 20:1 ratios apparently, so it would make sense if those turn out to be correct, but of course, I'm not qualified to speak on whether that will continue up here.

My understanding of the Kuchera method is that it's a somewhat convoluted calculation of moisture content and lift in the DGZ.

This is my first time hearing about the 17:1 ratio thing.

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

My understanding of the Kuchera method is that it's based on a somewhat convoluted calculation of moisture content and lift in the DGZ.

This is my first time hearing about the 17:1 ratio thing.

Kuchera is actually really simplistic.  You just take the max column temp below 500 mb, subtract it from -2 celsius and add it to 12. 

So for example if the max column temp was -12 celsius, you would do 10+12 so 22:1 ratios. 

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25 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Let me know what you find.  Given how rare 30cm+ storms are for us I doubt it's happened. 

'99 YYZ was using the nipher gauge so not even Jan 2-3 registered 30cm+ :lol:.  Downtown Toronto came close with 38cm on Jan 2-3 and then I believe ~28cm on Jan 14-15.  

Thinking this one tonight will be the bigger storm of the week.  Thursday-Friday storm looks like a quick coastal transfer and we're getting more snow scraps, maybe we edge out a moderate event.

Anthony Farnell saying possibility of 40-60 cm (2 feet) total by end of day Friday, when you take into account both storms. Amazing for Toronto, if it happens.

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My understanding of the Kuchera method is that it's a somewhat convoluted calculation of moisture content and lift in the DGZ.

This is my first time hearing about the 17:1 ratio thing.

The Kuchera ratio is a linear equation based off the maximum temperature from the surface to 500 mb. So necessarily when it's very cold, the ratios it gives are high with no regard for the snow growth processes (DGZ depth, lift through DGZ and whether it's we'll aligned with DGZ, and how well saturated the DGZ is). That's the flaw of the method, since there's plenty of occurrences of low ratio pixie dust type snow in very cold temps. The Cobb ratio is based off those snow growth processes.

 

Edit:@madwx beat me to it

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

STL cooking with gas

KSTL 151851Z 34010G21KT 1/2SM R30R/1600V2200FT SN VV007 M16/M19 A3022 RMK AO2 SLP258 SNINCR 1/4 P0004 T11611194

Late afternoon into evening should have good rates for us.  What's down around STL and eastward into parts of southern IL is on track to slide in here.

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