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February 10-12 event obs


snowfan
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15 minutes ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

I actually feel like I'm in a pretty good spot for the pre-first wave. Mostly snow now

This isn't really the pre wave anymore. It's just going to continue streaming across the mountains like this until it looks like that first batch is catching up. This is the beginning of the 'coastal' kicking in. (Kind of just a good fetch off the Atlantic.)

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Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It’s been a pretty wet storm here already.  Steady rates for a while now.  Solid coating.  If it were 5 degrees colder I bet I’d have 1.5-2 inches. 

Yeah same. Definitely pleased with what I see so far though. It's going to be a matter of whether 850s blast up from the south...

Moderate snow, vacillating between 33-34. 

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18z Euro is pretty wet....10:1....I think DC thermals are borderline for part of the storm, so maybe some sleet

I think north of a line from Winchester to Columbia could do really well tonight.  South of that is more dicey...a couple/few inches not out of the question, but could be sleety at times and probably a little less wet

Ydp08MW.png

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IMO, it's all about elevation plus distance from the Potomac.

I'm about 100 feet up from DCA.  Pixee may be as much as 300 feet up, maybe a bit further away from the Potomac, and Fort Reno is up around 400 feet.

So I wouldn't be surprised to see DCA get maybe an inch if generously measured, me an inch or so, and Pixee and Fort Reno get the 3 promised NWS inches.

That's ASS-U-MEing equal QPF.

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5 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

18z Euro is pretty wet....10:1....I think DC thermals are borderline for part of the storm, so maybe some sleet

I think north of a line from Winchester to Columbia could do really well tonight.  South of that is more dicey...a couple/few inches not out of the question, but could be sleety at times and probably a little less wet

Ydp08MW.png

I'd be more than happy with this solution. 

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