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February 14-16 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

It has the whole state of indiana getting 8+ lol. Close to a foot at dtw. We'll see if these kuchera maps verify for once. It'll be interesting if we get a classic nam18z overamped run here in a bit.

The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW...

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2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

I feel compelled to post the weeniebell kuchera if nothing else to archive 

image.thumb.png.9f68ff26f9cded71e6a2a14885aefd6b.png

Without thinking twice, I would give up all of next winter to shift that squarely into mby, especially since we're already starting off with good snow depths.

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1 minute ago, LansingWeather said:

Appreciate it, I did just take a look, only looked on the warning map because it was so crazy. I am not following this storm. I am glad the trends are reeling the storm in for you guys compared to what I saw at a glance. Just annoyed with the hostility.

People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie.

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Just now, Stevo6899 said:

People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie.

Are you just visiting Florida, or are you there permanently now? 

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Just now, Stevo6899 said:

People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie.

Ha, for sure! Lansing always seems to miss storms though. Its like it's thing. I did look at GRR and DTX before posting, consensus was 3-4 for Detroit and 1-2 in lansing

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Just now, Powerball said:

Are you just visiting Florida, or are you there permanently now? 

Since covid ive been able to work remotely, so I decided to rent an apartment down here this winter. Been here since nov1. Heading home march 1. Ive lucked out since this winter has been zzzz so far.....nam looks to be a bit SE with the track. Hoping it doesnt start to transfer its energy.

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12 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW...

 Well that's good to hear since those of us in Detroit and on the Northwest side are banking more on these ratios to get our big totals since the better moisture will be off to the SE.

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The NAM giveth and taketh lol

 

Part of what makes it tough is it's hard to pin down when that model is not going to be unstable for this area. Running with roughly what ensemble means show and added detail for lake enhancement probably the way to go for QPF and snow amounts. Figure a 15-20:1 ratio on average and greater than that for lake enhancement.

 

 

 

 

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Well then

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

ILZ103>105-150430-
/O.CAN.KLOT.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg,
Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park,
La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park,
and Park Forest
219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerous travel, low visibility, heavy snow, and cold
  temperatures expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind
  chills near 20 degrees below zero are expected, as well.

* WHERE...Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact commutes to and from work. Wind
  chills as low as 20 degrees below zero may lead to frostbite in
  as few as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest temperatures are expected
  Sunday night to Monday morning, and worst snow and travel
  conditions are expected from daybreak Monday to daybreak
  Tuesday. Roadway conditions may vary considerably over short
  distances.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the
internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com.

 

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Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products.

That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in.

DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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21 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

the 18z NAM moved back east (McHenry Snow is correct) and according to this model run he will bust high on his 1-2 inch prediction. The 3K NAM is slightly better.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

On the fringe thought there might be a little recorrect SE

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products.

That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in.

DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

how dare you talk down upon and bash an NWS forecast.

they are highly qualified and trained meteorologists, who know what they are doing at all times.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products.

That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in.

DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Thanks for the added detail. Can you explain the science behind what determines how far the Lake effect snow travels? It is the case where if a single band stays in one area it can “push farther” inland?

I like the AFD overall message that Monday night into Tuesday is going to be messy in Cook County. That seems like a reasonable and justified message and not getting pinned down into what essentially is a nowcast for LE band setup.

Glad NWS divided up Cook into a few warning areas. Absolutely helps in cases like this. 

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13 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Well then

Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

ILZ103>105-150430-
/O.CAN.KLOT.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/
/O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/
Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook-
Including the cities of Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg,
Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park,
La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park,
and Park Forest
219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Dangerous travel, low visibility, heavy snow, and cold
  temperatures expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12
  inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind
  chills near 20 degrees below zero are expected, as well.

* WHERE...Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties.

* WHEN...From 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact commutes to and from work. Wind
  chills as low as 20 degrees below zero may lead to frostbite in
  as few as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest temperatures are expected
  Sunday night to Monday morning, and worst snow and travel
  conditions are expected from daybreak Monday to daybreak
  Tuesday. Roadway conditions may vary considerably over short
  distances.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the
internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com.

 

Good starting point.  I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city.  8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24".  If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected.  If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened.

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Good starting point.  I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city.  8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24".  If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected.  If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened.

I think the warning text is appropriate and will sufficiently notify the public of what’s coming.

When I get back to Chicago we’ll likely be near if not exceeding a 40” depth. Wild 

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5 minutes ago, Chambana said:

My 8.7” call looking $.

Can you make my call as well? :lol:

 

Only thing out of ILX on Facebook is about the cold. Someone asked them about higher totals, sais LSX had mentioned it but they did not respond.

 

Went to LSX page and seen this. Cautiously optimistic, yet knowing howbthings usually pan out keeps me a bit pessimistic.

 

Screenshot_20210214-144906_Facebook.thumb.jpg.b04256488ecc2a0e29cb94882b052a37.jpg

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27 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products.

That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in.

DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

Is it possible they don't want to take away from the current wind chill headline the further west you go where the snow threat is less.. Let that expire then issue the watch or warning?  Or is that not how it works?

Scratch that. I see the wwa now

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