Powerball Posted February 14 If current model indications are accurate, I think this is going to be the largest "spread the wealth" storm we've seen in well over a decade. 6 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Thundersnow12 Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: I feel compelled to post the weeniebell kuchera if nothing else to archive Prime for jeb walks 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Powerball Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It has the whole state of indiana getting 8+ lol. Close to a foot at dtw. We'll see if these kuchera maps verify for once. It'll be interesting if we get a classic nam18z overamped run here in a bit. The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: I feel compelled to post the weeniebell kuchera if nothing else to archive Without thinking twice, I would give up all of next winter to shift that squarely into mby, especially since we're already starting off with good snow depths. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 1 minute ago, LansingWeather said: Appreciate it, I did just take a look, only looked on the warning map because it was so crazy. I am not following this storm. I am glad the trends are reeling the storm in for you guys compared to what I saw at a glance. Just annoyed with the hostility. People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Powerball Posted February 14 Just now, Stevo6899 said: People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie. Are you just visiting Florida, or are you there permanently now? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LansingWeather Posted February 14 Just now, Stevo6899 said: People tend to quickly get hostile over the internet/chat board. I guess in the future do a lil research before if you dont want people jumping all over you. Im in florida and still rooting for my backyard. Once a weenie, always a weenie. Ha, for sure! Lansing always seems to miss storms though. Its like it's thing. I did look at GRR and DTX before posting, consensus was 3-4 for Detroit and 1-2 in lansing Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Just now, Powerball said: Are you just visiting Florida, or are you there permanently now? Since covid ive been able to work remotely, so I decided to rent an apartment down here this winter. Been here since nov1. Heading home march 1. Ive lucked out since this winter has been zzzz so far.....nam looks to be a bit SE with the track. Hoping it doesnt start to transfer its energy. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mimillman Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Without thinking twice, I would give up all of next winter to shift that squarely into mby, especially since we're already starting off with good snow depths. Can’t believe I’m gonna miss this one! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, Powerball said: The Kuchera numbers seem to be verifying in OK and TX so far, FWIW... Well that's good to hear since those of us in Detroit and on the Northwest side are banking more on these ratios to get our big totals since the better moisture will be off to the SE. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RCNYILWX Posted February 14 The NAM giveth and taketh lol Part of what makes it tough is it's hard to pin down when that model is not going to be unstable for this area. Running with roughly what ensemble means show and added detail for lake enhancement probably the way to go for QPF and snow amounts. Figure a 15-20:1 ratio on average and greater than that for lake enhancement. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ILSNOW Posted February 14 the 18z NAM moved back east (McHenry Snow is correct) and according to this model run he will bust high on his 1-2 inch prediction. The 3K NAM is slightly better. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ILSNOW Posted February 14 KLOT update great read https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mimillman Posted February 14 Well then Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ILZ103>105-150430- /O.CAN.KLOT.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/ Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, and Park Forest 219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerous travel, low visibility, heavy snow, and cold temperatures expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind chills near 20 degrees below zero are expected, as well. * WHERE...Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact commutes to and from work. Wind chills as low as 20 degrees below zero may lead to frostbite in as few as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest temperatures are expected Sunday night to Monday morning, and worst snow and travel conditions are expected from daybreak Monday to daybreak Tuesday. Roadway conditions may vary considerably over short distances. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
miamarsden8 Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: I think this is before the last couple of eastward bumps. Regardless, these percentages seem low. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
RCNYILWX Posted February 14 Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products. That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in.DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cary67 Posted February 14 21 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: the 18z NAM moved back east (McHenry Snow is correct) and according to this model run he will bust high on his 1-2 inch prediction. The 3K NAM is slightly better. On the fringe thought there might be a little recorrect SE Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chicago Storm Posted February 14 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products. That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in. DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk how dare you talk down upon and bash an NWS forecast. they are highly qualified and trained meteorologists, who know what they are doing at all times. 1 10 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chambana Posted February 14 My 8.7” call looking $. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
michaelmantis Posted February 14 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products. That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in. DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Thanks for the added detail. Can you explain the science behind what determines how far the Lake effect snow travels? It is the case where if a single band stays in one area it can “push farther” inland? I like the AFD overall message that Monday night into Tuesday is going to be messy in Cook County. That seems like a reasonable and justified message and not getting pinned down into what essentially is a nowcast for LE band setup. Glad NWS divided up Cook into a few warning areas. Absolutely helps in cases like this. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Sciascia Posted February 14 44 minutes ago, mimillman said: I feel compelled to post the weeniebell kuchera if nothing else to archive WeenieBell map, but nevertheless: Inject this into my veins & call it a vaccine. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
janetjanet998 Posted February 14 ILX 4-6 PIA 5-8 the tier SE and 6-10 the tier south east of that PIA went from 1-2 to 4-6 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jim Martin Posted February 14 Northern Indiana just issued Winter Storm Warnings for their NW Ohio Counties. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hoosier Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, mimillman said: Well then Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ILZ103>105-150430- /O.CAN.KLOT.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/ Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, and Park Forest 219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerous travel, low visibility, heavy snow, and cold temperatures expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind chills near 20 degrees below zero are expected, as well. * WHERE...Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact commutes to and from work. Wind chills as low as 20 degrees below zero may lead to frostbite in as few as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest temperatures are expected Sunday night to Monday morning, and worst snow and travel conditions are expected from daybreak Monday to daybreak Tuesday. Roadway conditions may vary considerably over short distances. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com. Good starting point. I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city. 8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24". If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected. If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Grr basically cutting kuchera totals in half for eastern counties, 4-7. Once again dtx smoking doobies, watching reruns of dumb and dumber while new england offices have headlines up and they are a day behind in impact. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
mimillman Posted February 14 Just now, Hoosier said: Good starting point. I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city. 8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24". If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected. If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened. I think the warning text is appropriate and will sufficiently notify the public of what’s coming. When I get back to Chicago we’ll likely be near if not exceeding a 40” depth. Wild Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WeatherMonger Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Chambana said: My 8.7” call looking $. Can you make my call as well? Only thing out of ILX on Facebook is about the cold. Someone asked them about higher totals, sais LSX had mentioned it but they did not respond. Went to LSX page and seen this. Cautiously optimistic, yet knowing howbthings usually pan out keeps me a bit pessimistic. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ChiTownSnow Posted February 14 27 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products. That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in. DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Is it possible they don't want to take away from the current wind chill headline the further west you go where the snow threat is less.. Let that expire then issue the watch or warning? Or is that not how it works? Scratch that. I see the wwa now Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WeatherMonger Posted February 14 Be still my heart.... 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
