ILSNOW Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 the 18z NAM moved back east (McHenry Snow is correct) and according to this model run he will bust high on his 1-2 inch prediction. The 3K NAM is slightly better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 KLOT update great read https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LOT&issuedby=LOT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=2&glossary=1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Well then Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ILZ103>105-150430- /O.CAN.KLOT.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/ Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, and Park Forest 219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerous travel, low visibility, heavy snow, and cold temperatures expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind chills near 20 degrees below zero are expected, as well. * WHERE...Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact commutes to and from work. Wind chills as low as 20 degrees below zero may lead to frostbite in as few as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest temperatures are expected Sunday night to Monday morning, and worst snow and travel conditions are expected from daybreak Monday to daybreak Tuesday. Roadway conditions may vary considerably over short distances. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
miamarsden8 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Jim Martin said: I think this is before the last couple of eastward bumps. Regardless, these percentages seem low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products. That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in.DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 21 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: the 18z NAM moved back east (McHenry Snow is correct) and according to this model run he will bust high on his 1-2 inch prediction. The 3K NAM is slightly better. On the fringe thought there might be a little recorrect SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products. That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in. DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk how dare you talk down upon and bash an NWS forecast. they are highly qualified and trained meteorologists, who know what they are doing at all times. 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 My 8.7” call looking $. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products. That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in. DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Thanks for the added detail. Can you explain the science behind what determines how far the Lake effect snow travels? It is the case where if a single band stays in one area it can “push farther” inland? I like the AFD overall message that Monday night into Tuesday is going to be messy in Cook County. That seems like a reasonable and justified message and not getting pinned down into what essentially is a nowcast for LE band setup. Glad NWS divided up Cook into a few warning areas. Absolutely helps in cases like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 44 minutes ago, mimillman said: I feel compelled to post the weeniebell kuchera if nothing else to archive WeenieBell map, but nevertheless: Inject this into my veins & call it a vaccine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 ILX 4-6 PIA 5-8 the tier SE and 6-10 the tier south east of that PIA went from 1-2 to 4-6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Northern Indiana just issued Winter Storm Warnings for their NW Ohio Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, mimillman said: Well then Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Chicago IL 219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ILZ103>105-150430- /O.CAN.KLOT.WC.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/ /O.UPG.KLOT.WS.A.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/ /O.NEW.KLOT.WS.W.0004.210215T0900Z-210216T1800Z/ Northern Cook-Central Cook-Southern Cook- Including the cities of Evanston, Des Plaines, Schaumburg, Palatine, Northbrook, Chicago, Cicero, Oak Lawn, Oak Park, La Grange, Calumet City, Oak Forest, Lemont, Orland Park, and Park Forest 219 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM MONDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Dangerous travel, low visibility, heavy snow, and cold temperatures expected. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches are expected, with locally higher amounts possible. Wind chills near 20 degrees below zero are expected, as well. * WHERE...Northern Cook, Central Cook and Southern Cook Counties. * WHEN...From 3 AM Monday to noon CST Tuesday. * IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The hazardous conditions will impact commutes to and from work. Wind chills as low as 20 degrees below zero may lead to frostbite in as few as 30 minutes. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The coldest temperatures are expected Sunday night to Monday morning, and worst snow and travel conditions are expected from daybreak Monday to daybreak Tuesday. Roadway conditions may vary considerably over short distances. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for Illinois can be obtained on the internet at www.gettingaroundillinois.com. Good starting point. I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city. 8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24". If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected. If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Grr basically cutting kuchera totals in half for eastern counties, 4-7. Once again dtx smoking doobies, watching reruns of dumb and dumber while new england offices have headlines up and they are a day behind in impact. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Hoosier said: Good starting point. I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city. 8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24". If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected. If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened. I think the warning text is appropriate and will sufficiently notify the public of what’s coming. When I get back to Chicago we’ll likely be near if not exceeding a 40” depth. Wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Chambana said: My 8.7” call looking $. Can you make my call as well? Only thing out of ILX on Facebook is about the cold. Someone asked them about higher totals, sais LSX had mentioned it but they did not respond. Went to LSX page and seen this. Cautiously optimistic, yet knowing howbthings usually pan out keeps me a bit pessimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 27 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Okay I'm gonna do a little bit of armchair meteorology here. This is while acknowledging such a big change from one forecast package to the next is a big deal and we try not to have too much of a windshield wiper effect in our products. That all said, I'm surprised DuPage and all of Will County were not included in the warning, as well as Livingston. For all three, there's valid meteorological and impact reasons why they should have been included. In addition, the hazard map looks cleaner with them in. DuPage County, to be even a bit more specific, the eastern half of the county or so typically does well in northeast flow lake effect/enhancement. Also ORD actually partially goes into far northeast DuPage. If we're saying that northern and central Cook can expect 8-12" and locally higher, you can be sure those warning type impacts won't stop at the county line, barring a major subsequent shift back southeast. From my experience, parts of northern Will also do well in northeast flow LE. Finally, there's multi-model support for 6+ amounts in southeast half of Livingston. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Is it possible they don't want to take away from the current wind chill headline the further west you go where the snow threat is less.. Let that expire then issue the watch or warning? Or is that not how it works? Scratch that. I see the wwa now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Be still my heart.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Lincoln IL 241 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ILZ044>046-051>057-061-062-066-151000- /O.UPG.KILX.WW.Y.0011.210215T0000Z-210216T0600Z/ /O.EXA.KILX.WS.W.0002.210215T0000Z-210216T1200Z/ /O.CON.KILX.WC.Y.0004.000000T0000Z-210215T1800Z/ Piatt-Champaign-Vermilion-Sangamon-Christian-Macon-Moultrie- Douglas-Coles-Edgar-Shelby-Cumberland-Effingham- Including the cities of Monticello, Champaign, Urbana, Danville, Springfield, Taylorville, Decatur, Sullivan, Tuscola, Charleston, Mattoon, Paris, Shelbyville, Greenup, and Effingham 241 PM CST Sun Feb 14 2021 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST MONDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY... * WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10 inches. For the Wind Chill Advisory, very cold wind chills. Wind chills as low as 20 below zero. * WHERE...Portions of central, east central and southeast Illinois. * WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Tuesday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until noon CST Monday. An extended time with periods of moderate snowfall is expected, resulting in large snowfall totals. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning and evening commute. The cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in under 30 minutes. 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Growing more concerned with the wind with this thing. May not be a big deal in city/town centers but outside of those we could be looking at some serious drifting. We've got 3-4 foot ice guard rails out here in spots from plowing the drifts from last week with 10-15KT N winds over 3-4 inches of fresh cold powder on top of the glacier/snowpack. Models and offices have been slowly amping winds, especially Monday -Wed, from 10 to 15KT to 15-20 with gusts to 25KT's. All from the NNE/N for at least 48 hrs or longer. I can see hwy's like 32, 28 and 24 in IN even being highly impacted besides the secondary country roads. Could even possibly see I-70 in east central IN having some issues especially if winds continue to slowly climb. If we do get 6-10 or more of this fluffy powder it's not going to take much to move it around this glacier. Could easily see some drifts as high as 6 feet in some of the notoriously bad spots around here. I know that wind doesn't sound like a lot but I would compare it to a 29 degree December 6 inch 12:1 snow with 35 KT winds. Let the fun begin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Good starting point. I'm sure they must be a little nervous with some of the CAM runs having enormous amounts in/near the city. 8-12" is a much different feel than, say, 18-24". If you underdo it in an unpopulated area, only so many people are affected. If you underdo it in Chicago, a few million people will be wondering what the heck happened. Lake County, Indiana is also included in the warning based on my NWS forecast. Is that correct? Or at least part of the county?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Jackstraw said: Growing more concerned with the wind with this thing. May not be a big deal in city/town centers but outside of those we could be looking at some serious drifting. We've got 3-4 foot ice guard rails out here in spots from plowing the drifts from last week with 10-15KT N winds over 3-4 inches of fresh cold powder on top of the glacier/snowpack. Models and offices have been slowly amping winds, especially Monday -Wed, from 10 to 15KT to 15-20 with gusts to 25KT's. All from the NNE/N for at least 48 hrs or longer. I can see hwy's like 32, 28 and 24 in IN even being highly impacted besides the secondary country roads. Could even possibly see I-70 in east central IN having some issues especially if winds continue to slowly climb. If we do get 6-10 or more of this fluffy powder it's not going to take much to move it around this glacier. Could easily see some drifts as high as 6 feet in some of the notoriously bad spots around here. I know that wind doesn't sound like a lot but I would compare it to a 29 degree December 6 inch 12:1 snow with 35 KT winds. Let the fun begin At least I-65 will be smooth sailing with no problems. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, TheRegionRat said: Lake County, Indiana is also included in the warning based on my NWS forecast. Is that correct? Or at least part of the county?? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Baum said: Under a WWA for 5-9" which is a bit different here for that forecast amount. Despite the tick back east by the NAM still gives me 3-6" which is my thinking. Can also say we do get some enhancement out this far west in the right situations as RC stated. yes i am a little confused as I am under an advisory for 2-5 but my forecast is for 2-4 tomorrow and and 4-7 tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 First & final predictions: ORD: 10.4” Lake Shore Drive: 19.7” Go big or stay home. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 A lot of people are gonna be shocked to see the quick warning upgrades in places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: yes i am a little confused as I am under an advisory for 2-5 but my forecast is for 2-4 tomorrow and and 4-7 tomorrow night that's one way to CYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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