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Quick Hitter Obs/Nowcast, Feb 7-8th


The 4 Seasons
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21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Starting to get that Feb 2015 look. ways to go.. but the feeling is there 

iRWSWjf.jpg

That's honestly what I was thinking as I was clearing last night.

Not gonna lie though, I'm more jealous of the paste that EMA got. I live for that.

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3 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

That's honestly what I was thinking as I was clearing last night.

Not gonna lie though, I'm more jealous of the paste that EMA got. I live for that.

Yup. Me too. We just don’t do posters anymore inland. Seems like that’s all they get out there on the water is paste while we fluff

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10 minutes ago, HalloweenGale said:

Downeast Maine is getting down to business. 10 inches reported in Jonesport at 5 am.

Their coastline is in the right place for this type of storm. Their longitude hurts when we get the crawlers or huggers. 

Far downeast (Machias to Lubec) is actually one of my favorite little corners of the world.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. Me too. We just don’t do posters anymore inland. Seems like that’s all they get out there on the water is paste while we fluff

I get paste pretty frequently during the fringes of the season. Not nearly as much in Jan and Feb though.

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Wanted to share this great learning opportunity because it ruined what would have otherwise been an exemplary forecast. Its easy to forget that H7 fronto is simply a snapshot within the atmosphere, and that the coveted cross hair sig usually aligns with the SGZ region to the NW of max H7 fronto, since it slants NW to SE throughout the column with heights....as does low pressure (unless it is stacked).

 

 Super Bowl Sunday Snowfall Verification

Here is the Final Call issued on Saturday, as a point of reference:
 
Final%2BCall.png

versus reality:
 
147498192_3692353317525679_1266150863881
 

A Case of Misdiagnosed Frontogenesis

The forecast was generally accurate, however, there was one glaring oversight that detracts a great deal from the overall forecast because involves the very heaviest band. The heaviest band of 8-12" extending from southwest of Boston down through northwest RI and NE CT was the result of an intense area of frontogensis that was misdiagnosed. Although the forecast did incorporate this:
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2021-02-06%2Bat%2B5.02.5
 
What was neglected was the fact that the band of heavy snow usually extends to the northwest of maximum area of 700mb frontogenesis due to the way that it is slanted vertically throughout the atmospheric column, including the snow growth region. Thus the heaviest band of snowfall should have extended just to the north of the highlighted area of frontogenesis, which is precisely where the band happen to align.
 
145798563_3934637089901020_6987119843973

The fact that this band extended further to the northwest than forecast entailed that these very heavy snows also fell into slightly colder air, which resulted in a narrow band of 8-12", whereas the forecast 4-8" fell further to the south.
This was a very large mistake that resulted in 3-6" being forecasted for that swath of real estate that was most heavily impacted with 8-12" in a very short amount of time. Thus the overall grade still suffers, despite an otherwise nearly flawless forecast.
 
Final Grade: C
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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just screwed up TBH....no other reason. I know better, and made a rookie mistake.

looks to me like you were pretty close? I mean, had you gone 4-8 in between the blue and pink lines, you would have nailed the majority. but then yeah, you missed that fronto band.

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Ray, you didn't screw up.  I'd give it a B grade forecast.

I felt the band was going to set up further S & E over SE MA.  Certainly not from Hartford up over to Westwood.

I ended up in a "relative" min compared to Norfolk County and out on Cape. Still my 2nd biggest event of the season after Dec.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Ray, you didn't screw up.  I'd give it a B grade forecast.

I felt the band was going to set up further S & E over SE MA.  Certainly not from Hartford up over to Westwood.

I ended up in a "relative" min compared to Norfolk County and out on Cape. Still my 2nd biggest event of the season after Dec.

Yea, nice storm to learn from, regardless.....which is the point of all of this, at the end of the day.

Thanks.

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I wouldn't have forecasted the band to be as far NW as it was based on guidance....the max H7 fronto was down near the south coast or even slightly offshore....so I would have had the max band going from like SE CT to maybe TAN or something.

Not an easy forecast.

 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn't have forecasted the band to be as far NW as it was based on guidance....the max H7 fronto was down near the south coast or even slightly offshore....so I would have had the max band going from like SE CT to maybe TAN or something.

Not an easy forecast.

 

Agree. That's what I thought too. 

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45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I wouldn't have forecasted the band to be as far NW as it was based on guidance....the max H7 fronto was down near the south coast or even slightly offshore....so I would have had the max band going from like SE CT to maybe TAN or something.

Not an easy forecast.

 

Yea, Taunton is fine....I just should have had it a bit further north than I did.

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6 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

How does one figure how far NW the axis would be?  I assume that is based on the tilt, which I always have trouble isualizing (even though I understand it a little).   How tilted does it get?

Yes, how tilted a system is matters, but also how far northwest into that tilt does the big lift penetrate. Those aren't always the easiest to diagnose. The models could be a little off on both aspects and you miss by 25 miles on a big band.

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