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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh yeah? So Baltimore City still in the running for the ccb? Thought the NAM killed that idea, lol

Man, you run yourself ragged with specifics. Look at the time stamp on the delayed band and consider many model runs are still in front of you. That "band" will change locations and intensity every six hours. The only thing you should be worrying about is whether it stays within 50-75 miles of you or turtle heads back up to PA where the most probable climo location is. 

I understand your need for specifics. I really do. But we're like years away from NWP to be able to pinpoint this kind of stuff that far out in time. If it's still in existence with a reasonable proxity in 24-36 hours, then you can sweat all over the 30 pixels on the map that matter to you. 

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Been a fun day - neighborhood kids sledding and parents enjoying beverages - and I’ve barely measured since mid-morning. My daughter’s math lesson can wait. :lol:

Would love a little something to top things off tomorrow, but if it doesn’t happen I’ll just set my sights on next weekend’s MECS. :yikes:

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I'm enjoying the snow day, but don't like hearing rain/sleet outside my window while it's showing blue on radar.  I did take the new Australian Shepherd pup out for a Jebwalk in the snow and he is loving it.  It seems like we have been stuck at around 2" for the past several hours. The roads are cleared pretty well in my neighborhood, so it is definitely less than expected.  I agree with Bob Chill about the Miller B PTSD.  I really hoped models were onto something, but I 'm not holding my breath for part 2 of the storm in my neck of the woods (Fairfax).  But I am optimistic for the rest of February.  

 

Ringo snow.jpg

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Man, you run yourself ragged with specifics. Look at the time stamp on the delayed band and consider many model runs are still in front of you. That "band" will change locations and intensity every six hours. The only thing you should be worrying about is whether it stays within 50-75 miles of you or turtle heads back up to PA where the most probable climo location is. 

I understand your need for specifics. I really do. But we're like years away from NWP to be able to pinpoint this kind of stuff that far out in time. If it's still in existence with a reasonable proxity in 24-36 hours, then you can sweat all over the 30 pixels on the map that matter to you. 

Wha? I just wanna know what to expect/not expect, that's all...not sure why you're condescending. Now, what I didn't know was what you said about the proximity--50-70 miles of here...so it can go anywhere in that zone? I gotcha...so that's the possibility. See I wasn't sure how far or how close ya had to be to it (because I'm still learning)

I had assumed since the NAM was showing what it did, that getting more than an inch or two from the coastal was kinda off the table, so what the globals showed was a tad surprising. But if the possibility is still there, great. All the more reason 6-10" was a good call, lol

 

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Wha? I just wanna know what to expect/not expect, that's all...not sure why you're condescending. Now, what I didn't know was what you said about the proximity--50-70 miles of here...so it can go anywhere in that zone? I gotcha...so that's the possibility. See I wasn't sure how far or how close ya had to be to it (because I'm still learning)

I had assumed since the NAM was showing what it did, that getting more than an inch or two from the coastal was kinda off the table, so what the globals showed was a tad surprising. But if the possibility is still there, great. All the more reason 6-10" was a good call, lol

 

He's telling you to stop having expectations in this set-up and stop trying to know exactly what's gonna happen. Seriously. Stop. Just enjoy what is falling now and see if we can catch some of the bands over the next 48 hours. We have a chance at that. No guarantees. 

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Maybe it's the artificial optimist in me, but I think over the next several hours we're going to begin to see the low redeveloping off the coast and backfilling across the DC area. You can see the nascence of it on radar, just at the end of its loops. It's going to tease you for a couple hours so be prepared for that, but give it enough time and it will fill. The question is whether it fills too far E/NE, but that's another battle for another time. 

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19 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:


I grew up in Baltimore and live in Midland, TX now. I lived in Baltimore/MoCo area for basically 28 years, so I know how Miller B’s work in climo. The models were not showing an improbable western motion considering the UL evolution of the 5H and 7H levels as both were displaying a more southern transition latitude which would invoke a capture of the low level circulation and force it back westward between Norfolk and OCMD. It’s happened plenty of other times. The storm is still going to stall, just at a further north latitude due to a late capture as the 5H low and 7H inflection over the OH Valley went further north than most global guidance was indicating. However, the ensemble guidance did keep that within the envelope of reason, so there was concern for a northern trend always on the table based on both climo and NWP signals.

I never poopoo observational analysis since it is very important with regards to trends, but you can’t base it during long range forecasting with time frames of significance to EM’s and DOT workers for prep times and decision making. That’s where NWP comes in and inside 72 hrs is when you utilize Observational trends and NWP to your advantage. I’ve seen your take on modern NWP, and as someone who analyzes the statistical variance and overall scoring after UA and surface reanalysis, you don’t give NWP nearly enough credit for what it produces. Analogs are why Midland nailed the end of 2020 historic snowstorm
out here and we blew away our neighboring offices. I’m a huge fan of CIPS and it’s database. Your expertise in regional climo and historical data keeping will absolutely help you in varying setups and it is appreciated during short term trends, but it will absolutely not work with decision making at a local and state level where 72-96 hrs is necessary for planning and staging. Being overly prepared is better than the alternative, despite the respite it might incur from up top in government settings.

I would never mute you for any reason unless you actually disrespected me on a personal level or are attacking me, so you’ll never get the mute. Hopefully you can cash this afternoon on more snow as I bathe under sun and the typical cirrus. I hope to get back East and extend my career while improving my forecasting abilities and helping the general public. I also want to get back to the area I grew up in, or at least within the Northeast US vicinity.

Enjoy the snow


.

Midland is where baby Jessica went down the well. I dont know how big Midland Is but I disagree with the need for 3-4 day lead  time for preparation. That’s just poor organization . It’s winter, always be at the ready, . We contract for forecasting  to several management companies for snow removal in commercial and residential lots. 48 hours in is what we provide . We started updating them Friday 7am. Trying to get them on alert days before that is unproductive. I well may not be able to tell you 5 days in advance  what that low  in Colorado is going to do to DC but the models  cant either other than to show myriads of examples. There is also the “need to know” aspect that far in advance.  

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