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stormtracker

Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Kinda similar to the Feb 2014 storm in that regard.  There was a really awful lull waiting for the upper level energy to catch up and spark the deform banding.  

Yeah it's gonna be nails when the first wave moves through and the radar looks sparse.

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5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Thankfully, we know the GFS thermals are some straight up shit.

I think it will warm some in the dryslot when the lower levels lose saturation...but not to that extent.  And temps will crash when the ccb gets going.  

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7 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

qpf_acc.us_ma.png

Check out that qpf in Central MD

Here comes the JUICE! Loving these juicy 18z runs so far. Starting to see HECS type potential.

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8 minutes ago, SnowDreamer said:

This is a little late, but I'm shocked nobody posted this. The GEPS totals at DCA are nutso. Strongest MECS support I've seen from any ensemble so far. 

I count 18/20 with 6"+

9/20 with 10"+ by 12z Tues....

 

cmc.png

Did the cmc ever update?

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS insists on screwing the Shenandoah Valley. I get lucky I am JUST far enough north to get some love from the coastal. That model scares the crap out of me though.

It also insists on being wrong a whole lot too so you have that going for you.  

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2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Did the cmc ever update?

P8yKEWZ.png

12 hours or so to go at this point but this is the best map I've got... the next one brings it out to 240hrs so I don't think its worth sharing.

Not super relevant to us but it nukes NYC. 

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17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

And take into account GFS’ whack thermals and its even better.

Verbatim that’s a lot of 33-34F rain for me with an isothermal profile from the surface to 800-850mb. If that’s a smidge colder with a euro or GGEM like temp profile...

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Seems fairly far off shore.  Yes?

Seems to be heading towards a little less tucked in, kinda like the 12z EPS today. It's not really that far to the E, members jump around a lot from frame to frame. it's a smidge further west but more consolidated.

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11 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Seems to be heading towards a little less tucked in, kinda like the 12z EPS today. It's not really that far to the E, members jump around a lot from frame to frame. it's a smidge further west but more consolidated.

It will likely adjust to the euro more tucked solution thankfully 

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16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Seems fairly far off shore.  Yes?

It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. 

Roger.  Things are really tightening up as you said they would.  Here we go.  It’s time.  

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. 

That’s a very good point and why you get the L dancing around to the southwest after being offshore. Euro and GGEM did that today. 
 

Basic baroclinicity argues the low will be close to the coastline. Unlike December we have a respectable airmass ahead of this so the low shouldn’t ride up the Bay. Coastal front should be on the coast...

 

P.S. you saw this window coming from 10+ days so big kudos on the pattern recognition 

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I don’t know why Bel Air would be the jackpot for phase 1, but a general 3-6” seems like the right call to me. I think potential for more in north-central VA.

 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Icon is a juicy beast. 2.5 inch qpf 

More negativily tilted trough it appears to me 

Kudos to you as well as psu.  I remember you posted 8 days ago when the Thursday deal failed. You saw what looked to me like a cutter into a block. Little blue WAA showing up but you saw the potential.  Hats off to you sir.  

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59 minutes ago, Deer Whisperer said:

qpf_acc.us_ma.png

Check out that qpf in Central MD

I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack 

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5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Kudos to you as well as psu.  I remember you posted 8 days ago when the Thursday deal failed. You saw what looked to me like a cutter into a block. Little blue WAA showing up but you saw the potential.  Hats off to you sir.  

PSU is the professor :pimp:

I remember the 1st run last Saturday that Eps made a nice shift at h5 showing a big increase in lower hieghts to our ne and it improved from there . But the decent strength hp and cad was apparent then at day 8. I was definitely excited more for this potential then any but It was just a hunch honestly 

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1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Surprised nobody posted the RGEM.  Looks pretty good.

I would tap that shit.

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Question for the seasoned folks from a total amateur. I’m trying to understand the warming depicted at “halftime.” I get (Or maybe I am totally off) that as the coastal gets going SE winds take over until it gets cranking and then shift more NE, but why would that warm the surface so far inland?I get maybe the mid levels but to warm all layers to get plain rain to 95 I am not understanding in a scenario like this with a L that far away. Thanks. 

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13 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack 

Come on down! Not sure I'll be far west and north enough to stay west of the mix line, but I sure hope I jackpot with the biggest qpf and get cold smoked!

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I would tap that shit.

Yeah...the RGEM looks like a crushing. Really nice WAA snows, the primary croaks nice and early, and it appears the the surface may be starting to crash at 84 as the coastal starts to crank without melting all the WAA snow away.

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yeah...the RGEM looks like a crushing. Really nice WAA snows, the primary croaks nice and early, and it appears the the surface may be starting to crash at 84 as the coastal starts to crank without melting all the WAA snow away.

Yesss. But, we need the obligatory qualifier- well, it is the RGEM at range..

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17 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Question for the seasoned folks from a total amateur. I’m trying to understand the warming depicted at “halftime.” I get (Or maybe I am totally off) that as the coastal gets going SE winds take over until it gets cranking and then shift more NE, but why would that warm the surface so far inland?I get maybe the mid levels but to warm all layers to get plain rain to 95 I am not understanding in a scenario like this with a L that far away. Thanks. 

Not a seasoned folk but stumbled upon this earlier... https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2021-01-28-northeast-winter-storms-challenges-in-forecast

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Yeah...the RGEM looks like a crushing. Really nice WAA snows, the primary croaks nice and early, and it appears the the surface may be starting to crash at 84 as the coastal starts to crank without melting all the WAA snow away.

Wow, the RGEM is something else. Low jumps to SC before starting its NE crawl. Primary dissolves over KY. Definitely far south of the GFS look and in line, at least with the primary, to the Euro. Not sure of the jump to SC is too far...TBD.

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20 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I may need to go down to my brothers in ellicott city for this one. Seems the western suburbs get both smoked with qpf and hold onto temps. Whoever is JUST west of the mix line and remains all snow will jack 

Northern VA fringed.

Fortunately it's a trash model and will be wrong.

 

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