WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, North Balti Zen said: If anything, just makes me thing the upside here for the I-95 crew and east remains intact from even the good stuff on that run. Definitely. I know Pivotal put purple (sleet) right along 95 in the CCB, but that warm layer must be pretty thin if it exists with 925, 850, and 700mb temps all below freezing at that time. Not to mention climo suggests the cold air collapses back east once the CCB cranks. We can worry about those details Saturday evening or Sunday. Let's keep this 500mb and surface evolution more or less intact for another 48-72 hours please. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Cluster seems slightly SE of 6z, but I think that's because it dropped the outliers that take the lp all the way through the bay. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I was following this run on Pivotal, so it was surprising to see some of the outputs from WB. Quite different in regards to how the 2m temps were reflected in an area of sleet on Pivotal, while WB didn't really have it. But as some of the more knowledgeable have noted, it's kind of wonky to see the surface temps as they are while we're under the CCB with good thermals all the way up. Edit: Ninja'd by WxUSAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Cobalt said: Cluster seems slightly SE of 6z, but I think that's because it dropped the outliers that take the lp all the way through the bay. 12z EPS has dropped all of the far inland coastal lows that we saw on 06z. That's good. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 27 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: Euro is a textbook pattern for a classic heavy snow event west of 95. Nails the track and strength of the primary to coastal transfer and capture. I think you're short changing DC a bit...yes with a tuck along the coast like that 95 could get mixy...but even the cities would get a LOT of snow before any flip in that scenario. Maybe not 20"+ like west of the fall line but...10+" is a HUGE storm by DC standards. The rain/snow line is starting off down near the NC/VA border with this one. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 EPS lost the far west outliers. Damn that looks SWEET. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 EPS mean is east of the OP and more progressive. SNow mean max roughly from East of 95 to Winchester with 7" east and 9 out west. Basically couldn't ask for a better run. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Cobalt said: Cluster seems slightly SE of 6z, but I think that's because it dropped the outliers that take the lp all the way through the bay. Euro Ensemble seems to be keying in on a benchmark placement for Low Pressure. It’s been a while since we’ve seen that at prime climo. Giddy up! 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: ESP mean is east of the OP and more progressive. SNow mean max roughly from East of 95 to Winchester with 7" east and 9 out west. I see 8" along i-95 to 10" along i81 for the ensemble mean 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Love seeing the 500 low closed on the EPS...shows the amount of agreement on a sweet 5H track. Also, has a double closed 500 low by 144 just off OC. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: EPS lost the far west outliers. Damn that looks SWEET. Looks perfect. OP is clearly NW of the almost all of the ensembles, so that's good news. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I'm going to guess this was posted this morning in the main thread... but just in case it wasn't 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 It takes 24 hours for the low to travel from the Outer Banks to the South Jersey coast on the Op. That is an epic track for almost all of us west of the Bay with that cold air in place. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, yoda said: I'm going to guess this was posted this morning in the main thread... but just in case it wasn't Wrong day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, yoda said: I'm going to guess this was posted this morning in the main thread... but just in case it wasn't Has it been updated since yesterday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Wrong day. I tried to hotlink it... and it reverted to that image. I corrected it with the right image now @jaydreb its fixed now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 23 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Ok, a few images. 12z yesterday, 00z last night, 12z today. All for Monday 18z. One of the most noticeable things here is that the vort behind the system helps to dig the trough and wrap up the 500 low in the two 12z runs, but it is too late to really help in last night's 00z run. Two other things on the backside vort. The GFS has it, but like the 00z Euro run, it is too late to help slow/wrap up the UL low over us. And, the vort energy appears to be over Japan right now, so we are going to be waiting to see how the models handle it the rest of the week. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Wow when’s the last time we’ve seen an EPS mean look this good at 5 days or less? 2016? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, MN Transplant said: And, the vort energy appears to be over Japan right now Doesn't the euro use data from Japan soundings as part of their data? Heard it somewhere 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, JakkelWx said: Doesn't the euro use data from Japan soundings as part of their data? Heard it somewhere I’m def not an expert on this but I read that both the GFS and the Euro use data from Japan, but only the Euro uses government data from China and Russia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralVaNATS Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Maybe a legit Blizzard warning even coming our way with these kind of predictions for WindSent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Afternoon AFD from LWX on potential storm LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure initially located overhead will slowly start to slide offshore Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Dry conditions, a light wind, and chilly temperatures are expected for Saturday, with high temperatures in the 30s for most. The sky should start out mostly sunny, but high clouds will start to filter in later in the afternoon. Beyond that, attention turns to a system currently located just off of the West Coast. This system will move onshore tomorrow, and track across the CONUS Friday into Saturday. By Saturday Night the system will move into the Ohio River Valley. As it does so, warm air advection precipitation downstream of the closed mid-level low/broader scale trough will start to overspread the area either late Saturday Night or early Sunday. Confidence is increasing that much, if not all of the forecast area will see at least some accumulating snow on Sunday in association with this round of warm air advection precipitation. Confidence in the details of the forecast decreases thereafter. At mid-upper levels, the closed mid-level low is expected to very slowly progress toward the east Sunday Night through Monday as a downstream system over the Atlantic Ocean blocks its forward progress. Meanwhile, an additional disturbance descending down from the Upper Great Lakes in northwesterly flow will act to reinforce the backside of the trough as the first piece slowly progresses to the east. As the first piece progresses eastward, the primary surface low over the Ohio River Valley should eventually transfer to a developing coastal low off the Eastern Seaboard. Additional snow may be possible with this coastal low, but a lot of uncertainty remains with respect to the eventual strength and placement of this low pressure and its associated precipitation shield. Either way, at least some (snow) shower activity will remain possible on Monday, but the potential is also there for a more substantial snowfall with this round (as shown in the deterministic 12z Euro). Ensembles continue to signal significant spread during this time period, which illustrates the high level of uncertainty in the forecast for Sunday Night through Monday. Depending on how the downstream block evolves, snow showers may even linger into the day on Tuesday. We`ll continue to assess trends and adjust our forecast as confidence gradually increases moving closer to the event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Really? All I see is paleolithic cave writing. This is what he was trying to show 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I count 32 EPS members that give DC 6"+ of snow. And 50/50 gets at least 2" into DC. Sweet. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Euro overdoes near-surface winds. Don't know why. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro overdoes near-surface winds. Don't know why. True... but there are 3 different frames (132-144) of wind gusts over 35 mpg in the region FWIW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Euro overdoes near-surface winds. Don't know why. As a boater/fisherman I strongly concur. During tropical storms it throws out crazy winds inland also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Euro control is a great hit too. Coastal forms over Nags Head to just east of ORF, stalls for a bit, and heads ENE from there. CCB cranks over the area. 4 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Euro control is a great hit too. Coastal forms over Nags Head to just east of ORF, stalls for a bit, and heads ENE from there. CCB cranks over the area. 5 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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