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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

If anything, just makes me thing the upside here for the I-95 crew and east remains intact from even the good stuff on that run. 

Definitely.  I know Pivotal put purple (sleet) right along 95 in the CCB, but that warm layer must be pretty thin if it exists with 925, 850, and 700mb temps all below freezing at that time.  Not to mention climo suggests the cold air collapses back east once the CCB cranks.  We can worry about those details Saturday evening or Sunday.  Let's keep this 500mb and surface evolution more or less intact for another 48-72 hours please.

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I was following this run on Pivotal, so it was surprising to see some of the outputs from WB. Quite different in regards to how the 2m temps were reflected in an area of sleet on Pivotal, while WB didn't really have it. But as some of the more knowledgeable have noted, it's kind of wonky to see the surface temps as they are while we're under the CCB with good thermals all the way up.

Edit: Ninja'd  by WxUSAF

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27 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

Euro is a textbook pattern for a classic heavy snow event west of 95. Nails the track and strength of the primary to coastal transfer and capture. 

I think you're short changing DC a bit...yes with a tuck along the coast like that 95 could get mixy...but even the cities would get a LOT of snow before any flip in that scenario.  Maybe not 20"+ like west of the fall line but...10+" is a HUGE storm by DC standards.  The rain/snow line is starting off down near the NC/VA border with this one.  

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2 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

685858252_ecmwf-ensemble-avg-east-mslp_with_low_locs-2180800(2).thumb.png.be17bc40485514037442a442cc343bfc.png

Cluster seems slightly SE of 6z, but I think that's because it dropped the outliers that take the lp all the way through the bay. 

Euro Ensemble seems to be keying in on a benchmark placement for Low Pressure. It’s been a while since we’ve seen that at prime climo. Giddy up!

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23 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Ok, a few images.  12z yesterday, 00z last night, 12z today.  All for Monday 18z.  One of the most noticeable things here is that the vort behind the system helps to dig the trough and wrap up the 500 low in the two 12z runs, but it is too late to really help in last night's 00z run.

Two other things on the backside vort.  The GFS has it, but like the 00z Euro run, it is too late to help slow/wrap up the UL low over us.

And, the vort energy appears to be over Japan right now, so we are going to be waiting to see how the models handle it the rest of the week.

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Afternoon AFD from LWX on potential storm

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure initially located overhead will slowly start to slide
offshore Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Dry conditions,
a light wind, and chilly temperatures are expected for
Saturday, with high temperatures in the 30s for most. The sky
should start out mostly sunny, but high clouds will start to
filter in later in the afternoon.

Beyond that, attention turns to a system currently located just off
of the West Coast. This system will move onshore tomorrow, and track
across the CONUS Friday into Saturday. By Saturday Night the system
will move into the Ohio River Valley. As it does so, warm air
advection precipitation downstream of the closed mid-level
low/broader scale trough will start to overspread the area
either late Saturday Night or early Sunday. Confidence is
increasing that much, if not all of the forecast area will see
at least some accumulating snow on Sunday in association with
this round of warm air advection precipitation.

Confidence in the details of the forecast decreases thereafter. At
mid-upper levels, the closed mid-level low is expected to very
slowly progress toward the east Sunday Night through Monday as
a downstream system over the Atlantic Ocean blocks its forward
progress. Meanwhile, an additional disturbance descending down
from the Upper Great Lakes in northwesterly flow will act to
reinforce the backside of the trough as the first piece slowly
progresses to the east. As the first piece progresses eastward,
the primary surface low over the Ohio River Valley should
eventually transfer to a developing coastal low off the Eastern
Seaboard. Additional snow may be possible with this coastal low,
but a lot of uncertainty remains with respect to the eventual
strength and placement of this low pressure and its associated
precipitation shield. Either way, at least some (snow) shower
activity will remain possible on Monday, but the potential is
also there for a more substantial snowfall with this round (as
shown in the deterministic 12z Euro). Ensembles continue to
signal significant spread during this time period, which
illustrates the high level of uncertainty in the forecast for
Sunday Night through Monday. Depending on how the downstream
block evolves, snow showers may even linger into the day on
Tuesday. We`ll continue to assess trends and adjust our forecast
as confidence gradually increases moving closer to the event.

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