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Hoosier

January 30-February 1 Winter Storm

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10 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Will never happen in my life time.  Something like that happened in the early 1900's.  I saw pics of the Railroad that takes that route from Toledo to Chicago.  

 Actually February 1st 2015 was not far off of that scenario.

Chicago- 19.3"

South Bend- 15.7"

Detroit- 16.7"

Toledo- 12.0".

 

 I would bet money that the picture your thinking of was from March 1900. Several large snowstorms traversed the region bringing record snow depths.

 

Feb 28/Mar 1, 1900 storm dropped 20.2" in Toledo and 14.0" in Detroit...4 days later a 2nd storm dropped 3.0" at Toledo and 16.1" at Detroit!

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Living in Toledo, the most I've ever seen in 45 years was 13".  The wind made a it seem like less.  

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7 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Living in Toledo, the most I've ever seen in 45 years was 13".  The wind made a it seem like less.  

It does get very open down in Northwest Ohio.  My absolute favorite Winter, 2013-14, when snow depths approached 2 feet in February here in the southern part of the Detroit area, there were snow drifts in rural Monroe county to the top of barns. The wind down there just gets brutal and I imagine the same was in Northwest Ohio, as the peak depth at TOL in 2014 was "only" 13". Some of the better winters for snow depth in Toledo in your time would be 

19" - Jan 1978

16" - Feb 1982

15" - Feb 2015

14" - Dec 2000

13" - Feb 2014

12" - Dec 1974, Feb 1985, Jan 2009, Feb 2010, Feb 2011

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28 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

image.thumb.png.5027c00049cffbfc1713dc015bf527da.png:blink:

If this pans out like that I'm going to bang my head into every wall I can find in 24hrs. Lol. I80 south is in dire need of a good snowstorm.

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

If this pans out like that I'm going to bang my head into every wall I can find in 24hrs. Lol. I80 south is in dire need of a good snowstorm.

Watch it pan out like that too. I swear I think Central In and Il are in a snow shield. Never seen an area have snow around them in each direction as much as our areas

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13 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Watch it pan out like that too. I swear I think Central In and Il are in a snow shield. Never seen an area have snow around them in each direction as much as our areas

That has definitely been the story of this winter. A very persistent storm track in all directions around us. I'm ready for tornadoes by March so these snowstorms need to start happening between now and Feb ;)

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You know the past 5 winters have sucked when I see one bad run and feel like jumping ship on the storm. EPS is all dry for Central OH B)

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3 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

That has definitely been the story of this winter. A very persistent storm track in all directions around us. I'm ready for tornadoes by March so these snowstorms need to start happening between now and Feb ;)

March is a bit early please :lol:

 

I'll take snow up until the first week of April, hail is the only wished upon frozen precip after that.

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South trend on 12z guidance has continued on 0z guidance.


.

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Seems like we've kind of narrowed down a track as it comes into the OV, give or take 50-100 miles.

I'd actually feel fairly confident in saying this will be the biggest synoptic snow of the season here to date.  Not necessarily because I am sold on huge amounts locally, but more because the bar is that low.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

South trend on 12z guidance has continued on 0z guidance.


.

So I shouldn't plan on 18 inches in NE IL this weekend? Ha-Ha...

Someone needs to combine this forum with Draftkings and we can use betting markets to try to predict model reliability. Like Nate Silver's 538... Or better yet, we could call it the 540line or something... ;-)

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

South trend on 12z guidance has continued on 0z guidance.


.

This is good, the more south the better at this juncture. When they start trending back north, we don't want them to end up too far north. 

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I called it earlier today. First storm missed me north so this one will probably miss me south. Lololololol. Curious to see if euro shifts south. I was on northern fringes of heaviest swath on 12z euro. Gfs definitely came south but it's thermals are trash. Anyone have 0z cmc? It got stuck loading at 24hrs on tropicaltidbits.

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8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

I called it earlier today. First storm missed me north so this one will probably miss me south. Lololololol. Curious to see if euro shifts south. I was on northern fringes of heaviest swath on 12z euro. Gfs definitely came south but it's thermals are trash. Anyone have 0z cmc? It got stuck loading at 24hrs on tropicaltidbits.

Idk... all things considered, I'd say PIA is in a decent spot.  As long as you don't set expectations at a foot.

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7 minutes ago, NEILwxbo said:

Euro is a bump north and __________ (fill in the blank)

hint: starts with a d and ends in rier

Drearier?

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Idk... all things considered, I'd say PIA is in a decent spot.  As long as you don't set expectations at a foot.

If I got 6in I would be ecstatic at this point. But cue the drying trend on models. Ha. Hopefully it won't dwindle down too much. 

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

00z Euro is actually wetter than the 12z for the DVN cwa.  Would be another warning criteria event for at least a portion of the cwa.

It definitely was a more spread the wealth event instead of a narrower zone of heavier snow. You're going to be in a solid ice age soon with all that snow pack. 

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14 hours ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Ive seen this one before. Models at 144 hrs give me a foot, get my hopes up, gradually let down to 3-4 inches 

How about down to 1"

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Seems like we've kind of narrowed down a track as it comes into the OV, give or take 50-100 miles.

I'd actually feel fairly confident in saying this will be the biggest synoptic snow of the season here to date.  Not necessarily because I am sold on huge amounts locally, but more because the bar is that low.

We interrupt this broadcast..

I said that exact thing about today's storm. "How could it fail to beat 1.5??"

..FAIL

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Very impressive on the 00z GDPS.
sn10_024h.us_mw.png

Not as much on the UK, though.
sn10_024h.us_ov.png

According to Joe Bastardi, it looks like an upcoming Snowmeggedon scenario. :lol:

 

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For those keeping score, on the 00z ensembles, the EPS and GEPS (Canadian) shifted north from their respective previous runs, while the GEFS shifted south. The GEFS has been the farthest north guidance, so it shifting south isn't surprising. Our AFD makes note of this, but the general ensemble mean and member agreement is noteworthy at this lead time.

I think the 25th-26th system had more spread than this at a shorter lead time. It goes without saying that having such solid consensus this far out doesn't guarantee anything. I'm wondering if the stability of the Hudson Bay block is helping with more predictability in this case. Also seems a bit different than what just occurred in that the block forms an omega like depiction with a northern stream lobe off to its west and the deep trough to the east. In this way the block serves as a road block from a hard cut but does not appear on the ens mean h5 depiction to be imparting a compressive shearing mechanism to the parent wave.

It's an interesting but solid setup for areas that have missed out to hopefully score and those of us in the middle to also get in on the fun. The individual EPS members strongly point toward a pretty large swath of accumulating snow with the typical banding jackpot zones depending on exact track. This suggests that areas that miss out on max amounts could still get several inches. Lots of time to sort all the details out, so these are items I'm noticing thus far on the snow side of things.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk

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