Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[USCG RS]

2 minutes ago, Noteaster101 said:

Euro running?

 

[SI Mailman]

Euro is really tucked in.  

[USCG RS]

[Snowlover11]

meh.  good night we have all day tomorrow 

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, SI Mailman said:

Euro is really tucked in.  

Ya, but it drops 12-18 inches regardless lol more than 12z.  Would like to see it a little more east however 

[USCG RS]

Euro is Western edge and tucked. Nam is Eastern edge. We have a rather tight consensus developing. 

[jm1220]

Just now, USCG RS said:

Looks about the same as 18z to me? At 3z Tue if we're all still snow outside of maybe Fire Island and the precip is tapering off I'd call that a win. 

[LovintheWhiteFluff]

8 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Do you have the corresponding Mt. Holly map?

Looks tucked but it's definitely colder with snow all the way to the coast.

Can someone post hours 36 and 42? 

[USCG RS]

@jm1220 I would say that Euro is likely a bit too far North and West. A 30 mile SE shift is huge. We will see. 

[jm1220]

Through 72 on this Euro run 

[jm1220]

12z for comparison. I'm not seeing a big difference. Better snow for the NW crew. I guess more GGEM-like with the max in E PA? 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, TonyFeeN2 said:

Do you guys really think the euro turns the city to rain? Seems improbably with how cold it is outside could be some freezing drizzle at the end

Euro turns the coast to drizzle as the storm pivots. 

[USCG RS]

Neither the Euro nor the NAM are giving in. Interesting. In these situations, the NAM tends to win tbh. 

I said NAM and win in the same sentence.. yeah. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Euro turns the coast to drizzle as the storm pivots. 

Dry slots as H7 moves overhead.

[Mitchel Volk]

ECM is slightly east from the 18Z run, but not by much

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Neither the Euro nor the NAM are giving in. Interesting. In these situations, the NAM tends to win tbh. 

I said NAM and win in the same sentence.. yeah. 

Para gfs has had the same idea for several runs. Crushes  the coast.

[Jt17]

4 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Neither the Euro nor the NAM are giving in. Interesting. In these situations, the NAM tends to win tbh. 

I said NAM and win in the same sentence.. yeah. 

NAM is prob a little east and Euro a little west. Take a blend and you might have a better idea of the final map. That being said save for the far end of Long Island most of the subforum is in a good spot for 12-20+inches (and NYC is sort of smack in the center of both camps, fwiw)

[KeithB]

GOGOGO!!!

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, TonyFeeN2 said:

Do you guys really think the euro turns the city to rain? Seems improbably with how cold it is outside could be some freezing drizzle at the end

Verbatim it would but it would be as the heavy precip pivots away. The 10-1 ratio snow map has me at 14" but the precip total is about 1.7" liquid at the same point, so that would have 0.3" liquid as non snow. For the city the rain adds up to about 0.1". To me that means a very heavy initial snow thump followed by light rain/showers in the dry slot for a time. 

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, TonyFeeN2 said:

That’s a good thing man this is going to be the biggest storm for a long time possibly top 3 of all time for NYC

No. If this comes together right it can perhaps make it to 20" but the top 3 are all over 2 feet. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

No. 

Maybe top 10 

I guess he forgot

Feb 2003

Jan 1996

Dec 2010

Jan 2016

Feb 2006

[HeadInTheClouds]

Euro is too tucked and we dryslot eventually. Nam would be a perfect position. 

[Jt17]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

No. If this comes together right it can perhaps make it to 20" but the top 3 are all over 2 feet. 

If it makes it to 21" it's top 4, so there is a somewhat statistically reasonable chance of this albeit small, but top 3 is around 25" and that seems very unlikely lol 

[sferic]

@Ericjcrash @snywx @crossbowftw3 WOW! We all cash in

[sferic]

06z nam anyone?

[Jt17]

6-12 inch storm watch for NYC is starting to seem a little silly - it's been at that for nearly 10 hours and I think plenty of data has come in for Upton to bump that figure up and set a winter storm warning. 

[Sn0waddict]

Just now, sferic said:

06z nam anyone?

Come back in like 2+ hours lol

[SI Mailman]

06z nam anyone?

Still 90 minutes away. I'm about to call it a night and sleep til the 12z NAM.

[sferic]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

6-12 inch storm watch for NYC is starting to seem a little silly - it's been at that for nearly 10 hours and I think plenty of data has come in for Upton to bump that figure up and set a winter storm warning. 

With the morning package they will in about 3 hours

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Jt17 said:

6-12 inch storm watch for NYC is starting to seem a little silly - it's been at that for nearly 10 hours and I think plenty of data has come in for Upton to bump that figure up and set a winter storm warning. 

I think they bump up somewhat and perhaps make blizzard warnings for southern Nassau/Suffolk/Twin forks.