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stormtracker

Jan 25th Wintry Mix Obs and Nowcasting

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Ukie sort of looks like the euro from what I can tell with a WAA snow thump, mix to dry spot. It’s my far the farthest NW of the guidance though.

Pattern I’ve seen today so far is to better show cold air hanging on east of the Apps. Haven’t diagnosed if that’s due to better CAD or reflecting dynamical cooling as precip starts or both.

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11 minutes ago, Hurricanegiants said:

When was the last time we had a mix to all snow event? That would be a welcomed reversal. 

jan 2011 stands out (the psu storm)

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

jan 2011 stands out (the psu storm)

March 5 2015 as well. 40s and rain changing to heavy snow. I think IAD recorded ~9 inches of snow in that. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

jan 2011 stands out (the psu storm)

PSU has alot of storms....including the potential one next week. Can we start numbering them like the PD storms to avoid confusion?

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there is a tick of southness in the euro run from 12z yesterday and 00z yesterday. Well see soon

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

there is a tick of southness in the euro run from 12z yesterday and 00z yesterday. Well see soon

Looks like a dumpster fire to me. Up to 102.  For my location.  Others might like it

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

there is a tick of southness in the euro run from 12z yesterday and 00z yesterday. Well see soon

Some changes

 

trend-ecmwf_full-2021012112-f102.500hv.conus.gif

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mostly a wintry mix for the W burbs. Euro went from the best to the worst solution smh but it def trended more south. 

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this area in blue stays frozen(western Fairfax N and W) for the entire storm but def not all snow. Lets get the euro to keep ticking south

sfct.us_ma.png

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Just like the GFS, the Euro takes a fair portion of our area back to snow. 1 more shift south like that and I'd imagine some parts of our subforum (you know who you are) would be shoveling this

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3 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Just like the GFS, the Euro takes a fair portion of our area back to snow. 1 more shift south like that and I'd imagine some parts of our subforum (you know who you are) would be shoveling this

Who Me No GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

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1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

I find that generous! LOL! Probably too generous.. but I would take that.

 

 

i hope its not counting sleet as snow

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No complaints from me on the Euro clown map. Not sure the how or why, but I’m definitely not asking questions. B)

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22 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Looks like a dumpster fire to me. Up to 102.  For my location.  Others might like it

That's a little warm, don't ya think?

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I think it looks wonky. Brings the southern sw too far north, without any interaction with the NS vortex. Then it still weakens/dampens the wave and tries to shunt it southeastward at the end, as it feels the compression with the vortex rotating down from the Maritimes under the block. This should end up a bit flatter and further south, and we may end up worrying more about suppression/shredding again.

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I think most of the area from DC on north gets a good WAA thump from 18-0z Monday per euro. Then mixy light precip mostly after. It definitely ticked south from 0z. I’d like another 50-100mi south over the next couple days in case the inevitable last minute north trend happens. Euro is still the farthest NW with the 850mb low. 

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think most of the area from DC on north gets a good WAA thump from 18-0z Monday per euro. Then mixy light precip mostly after. It definitely ticked south from 0z. I’d like another 50-100mi south over the next couple days in case the inevitable last minute north trend happens. Euro is still the farthest NW with the 850mb low. 

I will take 2-4 ending as slop. Still think it ends up further south, but its a fine line. Wave could also come out flatter and dampen more as it moves east, as has been the tendency in this pattern so far.

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8 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I will take 2-4 ending as slop. Still think it ends up further south, but its a fine line. Wave could also come out flatter and dampen more as it moves east, as has been the tendency in this pattern so far.

Stronger and farther west low could provide a better WAA thump. Weaker low to the south keeps us snow longer. Hopefully we have some flexibility to get SOME snow. 
 

If this storm amps up and moves north closer to game time, it would definitely be the outlier relative to the trend the last 3-4 weeks.

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On the 12z Euro, it appears that H5 is a bit flatter out ahead of the system than it's 00z counterpart. Would be nice to score two solid advisory level events next week.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

On the 12z Euro, it appears that H5 is a bit flatter out ahead of the system than it's 00z counterpart. Would be nice to score two solid advisory level events next week.

If Thursday is an advisory level, I think I'll see everyone next winter, lol.

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8 minutes ago, H2O said:

Back in the grey again.  I'm out

didnt know you were ever in

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