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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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00z Euro is a dud for next weekend’s storm.  500 doesn’t look as good and the storm pops late and is weak.  
 

Would love to hit on this storm, even if minor, and then have the Arctic chill follow it.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

00z Euro is a dud for next weekend’s storm.  500 doesn’t look as good and the storm pops late and is weak.  
 

Would love to hit on this storm, even if minor, and then have the Arctic chill follow it.

Didn’t look at any of the other 0z guidance. Did any other ops key in on anything during this frame? 

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Didn’t look at any of the other 0z guidance. Did any other ops key in on anything during this frame? 

The GFS has an event.  Different evolution with a wave along a stalled front.  It could work, but the whole setup is in flux.  Too far out, still.

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8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Didn’t look at any of the other 0z guidance. Did any other ops key in on anything during this frame? 

CMC also had something, I believe...but I'm sure that model is in the dog house here at the moment...lol

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Next Sunday the EURO has a storm coming from the sw but misses us and rides off the coast in NC. Looks like small adjustments would give us a legit shot plus it's not a Miller B.

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Something to keep an eye on is there may be a period of snow with the arrival of the arctic front. This front looks legit and although we know it will most likely modify some as usual it still could be quite impressive. 

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The GFS has been showing precip along the cold frontal passage at the edge of the arctic airmass at 6-7 days.  Those can be squall-y and fun if it comes together right.  Something to keep an eye on.

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21 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Pure model porn

 

 

One of the things I'm trying to learn is how to read that map and tell if its a cold/dry look (I get the placement of the NAO/AO/EPO/etc).  But to me that would seem to suggest NS dominated and/or cold/dry.  Deepest low heights are centered over the great lakes.

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Just now, nj2va said:

One of the things I'm trying to learn is how to read that map and tell if its a cold/dry look (I get the placement of the NAO/AO/EPO/etc).  But to me that would seem to suggest NS dominated and/or cold/dry.  Deepest low heights are centered over the great lakes.

That's just the general pattern going forward, and yes it does look cold and dry somewhat but the mean skews/washes out any PNA spike or brief relaxation in the block. The biggest plus in that map is we will actually have a real cold air source. It's game on essentially

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1 hour ago, JakkelWx said:

Pure model porn

 

EPS.gif

Clipper pattern?

Progressing to loading pattern for a MECS 

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17 hours ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Could be a record -AO start to Winter through February, love to see how this evolves 

f156.gif

I just saw a forecast low of 11 degrees for Monday, Feb 08. Is that real? Likely to change? Should I buy a propane heater for my greenhouse, just in case?

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1 minute ago, wlantry said:

I just saw a forecast low of 11 degrees for Monday, Feb 08. Is that real? Likely to change? Should I buy a propane heater for my greenhouse, just in case?

A 7-day forecast is always going to change except under extreme rare circumstances. Even a 5-day is likely to shift - though hopefully not as much. 

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2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The GFS has been showing precip along the cold frontal passage at the edge of the arctic airmass at 6-7 days.  Those can be squall-y and fun if it comes together right.  Something to keep an eye one.

prateptype_cat.us_ma.thumb.png.243ea1732b8256f912033f423a0a1578.png

       This caught my eye too.       This would be a line of heavy snow squalls that caused a disaster on the roads as temps plummeted behind it.    Something like this happened here a few years ago on Valentine's Day 2015.

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28 minutes ago, high risk said:

 

  This caught my eye too.       This would be a line of heavy snow squalls that caused a disaster on the roads as temps plummeted behind it.    Something like this happened here a few years ago on Valentine's Day 2015.

I loved that event.

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24 minutes ago, high risk said:

prateptype_cat.us_ma.thumb.png.243ea1732b8256f912033f423a0a1578.png

       This caught my eye too.       This would be a line of heavy snow squalls that caused a disaster on the roads as temps plummeted behind it.    Something like this happened here a few years ago on Valentine's Day 2015.

Yes...just looking at that now, myself.  It definitely looks very much like the event in Feb. 2015 with a couple hours squall followed by a literal blast of cold (2" snow at my place from that).  That is a strikingly similar look, honestly, if it were to play out as shown.

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2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs has period of snow sleet Friday morning then Sunday.  I'll take CMC for Sunday. 

CMC similar to the GFS for the weekend with blasting a front through, but actually a little later it appears (more like Sunday night as opposed to earlier in the day).

I'll have what the CMC is smokin' for next Wednesday (Feb. 10)!

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