losetoa6 Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, frd said: I believe this is a significant shift North on the ensembles for the 22 nd and 23 rd. I think this 48 hr time stamp is a bit too far out in time to catch the onset on many members for the Thursday system Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LP08 Posted January 14 Decent Signal day 10 and beyond on the EPS. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted January 14 10 minutes ago, LP08 said: Decent Signal day 10 and beyond on the EPS. Maybe a hybrid system, I could envision an evolution towards a lower latitude grouping of lows as we near the period 26 th to the 29 th. Would be nice to see stronger Highs up in Western Canada to funnel the colder air SE 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14 So the -NAO/cold wave burns out in Europe, how do we not go from the SW after that? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: So the -NAO/cold wave burns out in Europe, how do we not go from the SW after that? Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity. 1 1 8 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted January 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity. I blame cow farts myself 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PCT_ATC Posted January 14 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity. one more time for us laymen 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Always in Zugzwang Posted January 14 7 minutes ago, PCT_ATC said: one more time for us laymen To quote from "Hardware Wars" (which is a great parody of the original "Star Wars")... You pull the plug!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
PivotPoint Posted January 14 1 hour ago, Ji said: i mean it kind of falls into the progression that PSU has talked about. That its the next one after the next one Nah man, it's the one after that one. And the "real" storm is the next one after the next one after the next one. Winter 2023, it's gonna be ridic Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14 There's some angry people here.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted January 14 End of the month, a couple big ones. Of course, fantasy land and beyond. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JakkelWx Posted January 14 The December 25th 2025 BECS is going to be our biggest snowfall since 1922 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Paleocene Posted January 14 Just now, frd said: End of the month, a couple big ones. Of course, fantasy land and beyond. Calling @PhineasC to remind us that he lives in a place where it snows, but it has been warmer than usual there this year, but it still snows there, more so than the MA anyway 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
stormtracker Posted January 14 42 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: gonna bake everyone alive in a solar flare lol Hey chuck,.... 3 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14 They must have time travel technology. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ravensrule Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hey chuck,.... You can do it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Hey chuck,.... .... shut up 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 14 16 minutes ago, ravensrule said: You can do it. I took care of it 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 14 @stormtracker you are right to be skeptical. I’m wrong plenty of times. But let me lay out why I think our opportunities increase the further into this pattern we get. And I feel confident not because the guidance shows this because this was the progression I started laying out days ago before it was as apparent as it is on todays EPS. I’m confident because the guidance is going towards what makes sense wrt how the pattern should progress. Let’s start with why that first wave around day 8 is going to have trouble staying snow despite the block. It’s about what happens before it. The genesis is day 4. The pac ridge (1) is going up and retrograding. It don’t look like much yet but the energy in western Canada and AK is digging into the west (2) in response. As that trough digs downstream once that trough in the east moves out there is nothing to stop a ridge from popping (3). The NAO block (4) is not yet in a spot to be helpful. Actually it’s really still just an extension of the WAR there. So let’s go out a few more days... Now the blocking is getting going. But even there is still centered just east of Greenland and it can’t go back in time and erase that ridge already in the east! It’s not that the block isn’t good but it’s too little too late. But keep in mind the location of key features there. Block just east of Greenland and 50/50 just NW of NF. Could that force a secondary south of us...yea but that ridge is a bit much and more problematic look at the airmass in front of that wave coming... Just being honest...all that ridging with a block just getting into ideal position and no cold in front...isn’t likely to end well. Not impossible but I’m not getting my hopes up. But now that the block is up and there is cold getting into N America as the pac flow finally relaxes look at the progression. With each wave more cold will bleed east under the block. So lets try this again a couple days later... At first glance it might seem that’s the same. But the ridge is flatter. And look at the key features. The blocking is now centered just WEST of Greenland. And the 50/50 is over NF. But most importantly look at the temps in front of the next wave... ok...that’s not Arctic but that’s much more workable. And look at the MSLP anomalies. They hint at exactly what I was looking for... And imo the wave AFTER that day 11 threat has an even better chance. Fast forward to 300 hours and we try again but... look how flat the ridge is that time...look at the location of the block and 50/50. And look at the temps in front this time... Now we’re cooking...the mslp is washed out by that range but the mean precip during that period hints at what is going on. so yes this all relies on certain things happening that may not happen. But it fits the pattern progression. I’m showing this because the EPS went to how the pattern should progress imo. If it does the wave around day 11 will have a better chance then day 8 and the wave around day 14 will have an even better chance. sorry for the war and peace post. 15 21 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Chris78 Posted January 14 @psuhoffman GREAT post and detailed explanation. Can tell your a teacher at the way you explain things. Appreciate your insight and thoughts on the upcoming pattern. 5 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
LP08 Posted January 14 @psuhoffman Great post. Have a question though. I was digging through some of my older posts and have noticed a similarity with extended NAO looks. Below is 300+ hr forecast for the EPS gor Jan 13 showing a very nice west based block and fast forward to today and it is more centered as an east based NAO. It’s been the pattern it seems all winter. I’m curious to what too look for to make sure we get the retro west that has been seen in the past but failed so far through January. 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14 Maybe if you moved to the West coast it would be different? Greenlandblocks are not what they used to be. There's like a 2nd rule with Greenland block. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, LP08 said: @psuhoffman Great post. Have a question though. I was digging through some of my older posts and have noticed a similarity with extended NAO looks. Below is 300+ hr forecast for the EPS gor Jan 13 showing a very nice west based block and fast forward to today and it is more centered as an east based NAO. It’s been the pattern it seems all winter. I’m curious to what too look for to make sure we get the retro west that has been seen in the past but failed so far through January. Well one is getting it inside 300 hours. The genesis of the pattern is only 5/6 days out from there you can extrapolate... But also other factors. One being the pacific flow backing off which won’t destructively interfere as much. Another is more cold injected into the pattern. We did have pretty good (not as good) look up top the last 10 days but with no cold we wasted it. 3rd guidance often is too fast with a pattern progression both setting in and breaking down. Lastly the effects of the SSW are just starting to couple with the troposphere so increased blocking is supported. It could still fail. But those are reasons I have optimism. 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Cobalt Posted January 14 Usually you'd expect the weeklies to do its best to revert back to a nina pattern and to pump the SE ridge, but even going a month out the blocking looks decently stout, SE ridge squashed too. Workable look especially when considering Weeklies bias 2 weeks out. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
BristowWx Posted January 14 11 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Maybe if you moved to the West coast it would be different? Greenlandblocks are not what they used to be. Isn’t it just the fact that Canada was flooded with PAC air prior to the block? Yeah I know the PAC itself is crap but north of the border has been an inferno. Bad luck yes but is it fair to say that same pattern now but frigid source region would result in a colder outcome? Just random musings Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted January 14 Mount Holly- Another storm system likely approaches the area late next week with potential ptype concerns...however the trending negative PNA and the (related) hints of a building SE ridge, make this setup sub-optimal for snow lovers. WOMP C'mon man, don't be so boilerplate. The potential! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 14 Montana has been cold. Psychological manipulation of population-based climate control is my guess. 2 2 2 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
pasnownut Posted January 14 3 hours ago, yoda said: 12z EURO is holding h5 energy back at 120 in the SW again Typical bias. It will “let go” of it in a few runs. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Montana has been cold. Psychological manipulation of population-based climate control is my guess. No politics Chuck. Or whatever the fuuck this shit is. 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted January 14 Turn your cell phone off Chuck 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
