• Member Statistics

    16,544
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Malcolm M
    Newest Member
    Malcolm M
    Joined
WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

I believe this is a significant shift North on the ensembles for the 22 nd  and 23 rd. 

 

 

I think this 48 hr  time stamp is a bit too far out in time to catch the onset on many members for the Thursday system 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Decent Signal day 10 and beyond on the EPS.

 

Maybe a hybrid system,  I could envision an evolution towards a lower latitude grouping of lows as we near the period 26  th to the 29  th.   

Would be nice to see stronger Highs up in Western Canada to funnel the colder air SE 

 

1611640800-xFCZUVL2Cq0.png

 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

So the -NAO/cold wave burns out in Europe, how do we not go from the SW after that?

Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Haha 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity. 

I blame cow farts myself

  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Because the positive torque momentum from the axis of the angular sheer vector was several degrees off optimum velocity. 

one more time for us laymen  :baby:

 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ji said:

i mean it kind of falls into the progression that PSU has talked about. That its the next one after the next one

Nah man, it's the one after that one.

And the "real" storm is the next one after the next one after the next one. Winter 2023, it's gonna be ridic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

End of the month, a couple big ones. Of course,  fantasy land and beyond. 

 

1611900000-imgiB25mnlA.png

 

1611900000-pJyEnCBOEU0.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, frd said:

 

End of the month, a couple big ones. Of course,  fantasy land and beyond. 

 

 

 

 

 

Calling @PhineasC to remind us that he lives in a place where it snows, but it has been warmer than usual there this year, but it still snows there, more so than the MA anyway

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@stormtracker you are right to be skeptical.  I’m wrong plenty of times. But let me lay out why I think our opportunities increase the further into this pattern we get. And I feel confident not because the guidance shows this because this was the progression I started laying out days ago before it was as apparent as it is on todays EPS. I’m confident because the guidance is going towards what makes sense wrt how the pattern should progress. 
 

Let’s start with why that first wave around day 8 is going to have trouble staying snow despite the block. It’s about what happens before it. 
The genesis is day 4. 
ciARHbR.jpg

The pac ridge (1) is going up and retrograding. It don’t look like much yet but the energy in western Canada and AK is digging into the west (2) in response. As that trough digs downstream once that trough in the east moves out there is nothing to stop a ridge from popping (3).  The NAO block (4) is not yet in a spot to be helpful. Actually it’s really still just an extension of the WAR there. 
 

So let’s go out a few more days...

ff0dWhS.jpg
Now the blocking is getting going. But even there is still centered just east of Greenland and it can’t go back in time and erase that ridge already in the east!  It’s not that the block isn’t good but it’s too little too late. But keep in mind the location of key features there. Block just east of Greenland and 50/50 just NW of NF.  Could that force a secondary south of us...yea but that ridge is a bit much and more problematic look at the airmass in front of that wave coming...

xxDbFst.png
Just being honest...all that ridging with a block just getting into ideal position and no cold in front...isn’t likely to end well. Not impossible but I’m not getting my hopes up. 
 

But now that the block is up and there is cold getting into N America as the pac flow finally relaxes look at the progression. With each wave more cold will bleed east under the block. So lets try this again a couple days later...

SuP4k8K.jpg
At first glance it might seem that’s the same. But the ridge is flatter. And look at the key features. The blocking is now centered just WEST of Greenland. And the 50/50 is over NF. But most importantly look at the temps in front of the next wave...

cIu8RQJ.png
ok...that’s not Arctic but that’s much more workable.  And look at the MSLP anomalies. They hint at exactly what I was looking for...

jv8GeJi.jpg
LLmwc37.jpg

15Qw3na.jpg

And imo the wave AFTER that day 11 threat has an even better chance.  Fast forward to 300 hours and we try again but...

ytup0ea.jpg
look how flat the ridge is that time...look at the location of the block and 50/50. And look at the temps in front this time...

MFJMDGO.png
Now we’re cooking...the mslp is washed out by that range but the mean precip during that period hints at what is going on. 
CyOLz4f.png

so yes this all relies on certain things happening that may not happen. But it fits the pattern progression. I’m showing this because the EPS went to how the pattern should progress imo. If it does the wave around day 11 will have a better chance then day 8 and the wave around day 14 will have an even better chance. 
 

sorry for the war and peace post. 

  • Like 15
  • Thanks 21

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@psuhoffman

GREAT post and detailed explanation. 

Can tell your a teacher at the way you explain things.

Appreciate your insight and thoughts on the upcoming pattern.

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

@psuhoffman Great post.  Have a question though.  I was digging through some of my older posts and have noticed a similarity with extended NAO looks.  Below is 300+ hr forecast for the EPS gor Jan 13 showing a very nice west based block and fast forward to today and it is more centered as an east based NAO.  It’s been the pattern it seems all winter.  I’m curious to what too look for to make sure we get the retro west that has been seen in the past but failed so far through January.

EAC0E2AD-30DF-4B8E-AA9B-72DEB0BBCA58.png

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Maybe if you moved to the West coast it would be different? Greenlandblocks are not what they used to be. There's like a 2nd rule with Greenland block. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, LP08 said:

@psuhoffman Great post.  Have a question though.  I was digging through some of my older posts and have noticed a similarity with extended NAO looks.  Below is 300+ hr forecast for the EPS gor Jan 13 showing a very nice west based block and fast forward to today and it is more centered as an east based NAO.  It’s been the pattern it seems all winter.  I’m curious to what too look for to make sure we get the retro west that has been seen in the past but failed so far through January.

EAC0E2AD-30DF-4B8E-AA9B-72DEB0BBCA58.png

Well one is getting it inside 300 hours.

The genesis of the pattern is only 5/6 days out 

4C7A0B6F-9202-4F63-BC45-9CFA41FB8204.thumb.png.a7aa1565f81bea935f47da342b9d12a8.png

from there you can extrapolate...

But also other factors. One being the pacific flow backing off which won’t destructively interfere as much. Another is more cold injected into the pattern. We did have pretty good (not as good) look up top the last 10 days but with no cold we wasted it.  3rd guidance often is too fast with a pattern progression both setting in and breaking down. Lastly the effects of the SSW are just starting to couple with the troposphere so increased blocking is supported. It could still fail. But those are reasons I have optimism. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Usually you'd expect the weeklies to do its best to revert back to a nina pattern and to pump the SE ridge, but even going a month out the blocking looks decently stout, SE ridge squashed too. Workable look especially when considering Weeklies bias 2 weeks out. 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-namer-z500_anom-3088000.thumb.png.020be5248ecb83b784d7cf1ddad274fa.png

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Maybe if you moved to the West coast it would be different? Greenlandblocks are not what they used to be. 

Isn’t it just the fact that Canada was flooded with PAC air prior to the block?  Yeah I know the PAC itself is crap but north of the border has been an inferno.  Bad luck yes but is it fair to say that same pattern now but frigid source region would result in a colder outcome?  Just random musings 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mount Holly-

Another storm system likely approaches the area late next week with potential ptype concerns...however the trending negative PNA and the (related) hints of a building SE ridge, make this setup sub-optimal for snow lovers.

WOMP

C'mon man, don't be so boilerplate. The potential!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, yoda said:

12z EURO is holding h5 energy back at 120 in the SW again

Typical bias. It will “let go” of it in a few runs. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck! said:

Montana has been cold. Psychological manipulation of population-based climate control is my guess. 

No politics Chuck.

Or whatever the fuuck this shit is.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   1 member