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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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Just now, umdterps29 said:

I agree that the superstition about starting a thread is silly but at the same time why are people so antsy to start a thread? Doesn’t change anything 

That's the rational explanation.  But after 40 years following DC weather, I can't fully agree.  It's entirely possible we're being reasonable.

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12 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I never got the superstition about threads...just start it now.

It's dumb.  Always has been and it used to irritate me with the "see, you started a thread, that's why the storm isn't happening".  Yes, because parcels of air and temperatures are sentient and check this board before deciding what to do.   

I'm zen about it now.  I may just start it anyway.  Not sure why I'm bending to this superstition shit.  I'm going to at least let the GFS come in first.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's dumb.  Always has been and it used to irritate me with the "see, you started a thread, that's why the storm isn't happening".  Yes, because parcels of air and temperatures are sentient and check this board before deciding what to do.   

I'm zen about it now.  I may just start it anyway.  Not sure why I'm bending to this superstition shit.  I'm going to at least let the GFS come in first.

You have a bad track record of thread starts in DC this winter. If we’re being superstitious, you need to stay away from the ‘start new topic’ button. :P

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4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's dumb.  Always has been and it used to irritate me with the "see, you started a thread, that's why the storm isn't happening".  Yes, because parcels of air and temperatures are sentient and check this board before deciding what to do.   

I'm zen about it now.  I may just start it anyway.  Not sure why I'm bending to this superstition shit.  I'm going to at least let the GFS come in first.

Just because we're irrational, doesn't mean we're wrong.

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18 minutes ago, umdterps29 said:

I agree that the superstition about starting a thread is silly but at the same time why are people so antsy to start a thread? Doesn’t change anything 

The problem with starting a storm thread too early has nothing to Do with superstition. The earlier you start a thread the more chances you have of a major adjustment. 4 days out just leaves too much adjustments in forecast. 

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

It's a good year. I had 16" 2 weeks ago at 750' In elevation. Cascade/blue ridge summit area maxed out with 22" or so. But those areas are always 4 to 6 degrees cooler than Smithsburg or Thurmont. 

 

Right now we are at 34 and plain rain and just a couple miles away/600 feet up  its 29 heavy glazing on Blue Ridge Summit Right.  That area is a living jackpot.   

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