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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If we start a thread, can we please wait until after 12z runs on Wednesday? 

In all seriousness, was going to make one after the Euro.......tomorrow.   12z tomorrow

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If we start a thread, can we please wait until after 12z runs on Wednesday? 

Woe there. Slow down. Still too soon

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Your dives into history are awesome. I love it as I cant drill down to the level of detail you do with memory. That said, if thurs isnt a carbon copy of the Feb 2014 all snow west track, it's an abject failure. Dont lose sight of ingrained irrationality and foolishness here. 

Your quote let me see the typo I had in the original post- 2/21/15, not 2005. That’s the event you are referring to as well, I believe. One of the best day-of overperformers of all time. We were staring at the sleet line just not advance on the CC loop while it was hours of  heavier than modeled snow accumulating during peak sun angle hours. 

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11 minutes ago, EHoffman said:

NAM's been holding steady with the warmer idea tho for several runs now...it's been great this year particularly at picking up trends at this range, so why wouldn't I put tons of stock into it ESPECIALLY when it aligns with DC climo.  Like I said, I hope I'm wrong.

Haha I'm not actually offended, you guys have great analysis which I why I keep coming back after posting on these boards with you goons for 15 years.

Generally speaking I AGREE with you. But your writing off of a non-marginal surface temp event as if it's a 33 and white rain event is kind of puzzling. BUT - at least you then backed it up with saying you thought the models were too cold. So I'm not battling you here - we are allowed to have different opinions. That said - the "climo" of NW DC is NOT at all the same as the tarmac at DCA. Ice storms are rare for the entire area - not just downtown Washington. 

Look how narrow the corridor of sig ice (significant enough to do extensive power outage stuff) was in this past event. It wasn't narrow because of DC climo - it was narrow because the areas where FZRA falls and matches up really well with the rest of the factors is always relatively narrow. 

Conservative is always good for DC snow. But you're also writing off the mixed nature of the event as well. I think it's totally possible the warm nose is closer to the NAM and we get sleeted to hell. But sleet can be even more impactful than snow. I'm not sold on "meh wet roads"

I remember you back on Eastern - always thought you were a solid poster if memory is correct. I don't think you're not now - but you just went perhaps too far in the "meh we are DC" direction. Sometimes we've gotta actually forecast! 

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1 minute ago, gymengineer said:

Your quote let me see the typo I had in the original post- 2/21/15, not 2005. That’s the event you are referring to as well, I believe. One of the best day-of overperformers of all time. We were staring at the sleet line just not advance on the CC loop while it was hours of  heavier than modeled snow accumulating during peak sun angle hours. 

Snow will accumulate during daylight hours much better if there's just the slightest base formed overnight. I believe that's what happened if I recall.

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UK coming in much colder. Starts as snow down to RIC like the GFS. 
It is a straight up crush job for the NW burbs. Winchester Pummeled. Wow.
Ukmet has been all over this
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12 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Yes.  Yes I do.

I thought of this last night made me laugh.  Planes, Trains, and Automobiles.  When the cop asked Del if he thought the melted car was safe for highway travel he said that. 

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2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Generally speaking I AGREE with you. But your writing off of a non-marginal surface temp event as if it's a 33 and white rain event is kind of puzzling. BUT - at least you then backed it up with saying you thought the models were too cold. So I'm not battling you here - we are allowed to have different opinions. That said - the "climo" of NW DC is NOT at all the same as the tarmac at DCA. Ice storms are rare for the entire area - not just downtown Washington. 

Look how narrow the corridor of sig ice (significant enough to do extensive power outage stuff) was in this past event. It wasn't narrow because of DC climo - it was narrow because the areas where FZRA falls and matches up really well with the rest of the factors is always relatively narrow. 

Conservative is always good for DC snow. But you're also writing off the mixed nature of the event as well. I think it's totally possible the warm nose is closer to the NAM and we get sleeted to hell. But sleet can be even more impactful than snow. I'm not sold on "meh wet roads"

I remember you back on Eastern - always thought you were a solid poster if memory is correct. I don't think you're not now - but you just went perhaps too far in the "meh we are DC" direction. Sometimes we've gotta actually forecast! 

Your memory probably isn't correct, I've never been a solid poster. 

That said, I agree where you're coming from and it's certainly an intriguing event.  And the globals are certainly looking awesome.  I just try to factor in DC climo and try to keep in mind we've had literally every storm go to shit for us <48 hrs from game time and I'm trying to keep a level head and not get overly excited.  Definitely one of those storms where I won't believe it until it's actually happening.

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Just now, BristowWx said:

I thought of this last night made me laugh.  Planes, Trains, and Automobiles.  When the cop asked Del if he thought the melted car was safe for highway travel he said that. 

All time classic.  Top 5 fave for me.

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

All time classic.  Top 5 fave for me.

Well you have no functioning gauges.  Nope not a one...but the radio works and it’s clear as a bell don’t ask me how...classic

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21 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Is nobody getting the "Now I will kill you until you die from it" quote? I mean come on. I'm piggybacking here. Lol

Damn! I totally missed that little piggy. He must have gone all the way home. :lol:

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7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Damn..I thought we hit our peak possibilities yesterday.   

Lowest lows can only be reached after the highest highs have presented themsevles. Feels lofty right now but there is still potential for an even bigger fall from the top. I cant stay up for the euro tonight. DM a recap of the carnage in the early AM so I can start my day off right

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The NAM showed an ugly warm nose near 700 hPa. 

Here is a time series showing 700 hPa temperature trends for several runs of the GFS-Parallel for 1 PM Thursday afternoon 

trend-gfs_para-2021021512-f078.700th.conus.gif.0a3b3fa1eff155cc64f3489fa2f62eab.gif

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15 minutes ago, mappy said:

thinking tomorrow at the earliest. 

 

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

In all seriousness, was going to make one after the Euro.......tomorrow.   12z tomorrow

Please wait. I’m begging you.

5FBD5A42-8B1E-4B21-8063-B5463B429E69.jpeg.99851bcb71b5a49fcdeb8f457bb94ff1.jpeg

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