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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A 55 degree day in mid February is more normal here then a snowstorm. And again why are you fixated on the idea of “normal”. Normal in weather around here is just a bunch of abnormal averaged together.

It's how I'd like normal to be :lol:Winter, cold...not always reality, but I certainly wish it was!

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40 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

If you love snow bad enough move to where it actually snows. 

Not everybody has that option though...and in that case,  you're kind of stuck with the climo. I mean I'm in no position to move anywhere, that's for sure! So the only other way is through--figuring out how the heck to deal with it.

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45 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

i think it's pretty safe to say that a 5" snowstorm after Feb 20 in the immediate DC metro is much rarer than it is from Jan 1 to Feb 20.  If we count the number of such storms that have happened in that period vs the number of times where such a storm hasn't happened, I would wager that the latter would far outnumber the former.

The odds gradually decrease everyday but there is no sudden huge change that hits late February. The huge change happens in mid March where spring climo takes over and snow does become much more rare. From Feb 15-March 15 it’s a very gradual slope. 

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lulz

06z GFS says oh you thought you were done?  Nice try... come back into my parlor with my major ice storm Monday night into Tuesday morning for all of you

Kicks out everything in one full wave instead of two this run so there is no Tue/Wed storm anymore... only the Mon/Tues storm

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1 minute ago, yoda said:

0.4"-0.8" ice... nice lol... mainly centered along i95 corridor as well

Hell maybe we’ll get one of those rare ice storm warnings.  If that’s all we can do then so be it.  Mentally I have given up on the flush hit cold powder scenario.  Just not in the cards

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Hell maybe we’ll get one of those rare ice storm warnings.  If that’s all we can do then so be it.  Mentally I have given up on the flush hit cold powder scenario.  Just not in the cards

06z Para GFS agrees with 06z GFS and kicks out the wave in full swoop... late Monday night into Tuesday morning major ice storm... slams i81 to i95 corridor with 0.4-0.8" ice as well

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43 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

CMC called that a week ago. I'm ready to end this dumpster fire anyway. 

Remember a week ago when the advertised h5 look for the upcoming period looked like this?

What we are actually seeing is a simple adjustment to what is more typical for a Nina. Shift the phase of the longwave pattern west and amp the SE ridge.

gfs-ens_z500aMean_nhem_8.png

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41 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

CMC called that a week ago. I'm ready to end this dumpster fire anyway. 

when you still hear online weather and local weather forecasters claiming the cold air is coming or artic blast incoming. even if it was coming 20s for my area is never considered artic highs in the teens or below would be artic not 20s 

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21 minutes ago, yoda said:

lulz

06z GFS says oh you thought you were done?  Nice try... come back into my parlor with my major ice storm Monday night into Tuesday morning for all of you

Kicks out everything in one full wave instead of two this run so there is no Tue/Wed storm anymore... only the Mon/Tues storm

Yeah, in terms of ice, that run was dirty.  Mean. 

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Just now, yoda said:

well NAM twins brought it back for the most part... not severe... but still couple tenths

One thing that’s almost a lock is snow not being part of the equation.  This dusting we had is about all we are going to see. Tragic.

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3 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

One thing that’s almost a lock is snow not being part of the equation.  This dusting we had is about all we are going to see. Tragic.

Realistically snow has not been on the table for a while now outside of far NW areas maybe. The late next week threat still holds some promise.

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7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think if Thursday doesn't work...then from a historical standpoint, then we might be able to call it. Not  winter has ever produced anything sizeable (that is at least 5") between February 21st-28th, and March is, well...March, lol So next week could be our last shot, I'm afraid

February 1986 had three snow events on the 22nd, 24th and 26-7th: 3.6, 3.6 and 1.8 inches respectively at DCA.

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6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Not just but the snow is a significant factor. But I have an amazing view, big property, it’s nice up here in the summer. It’s a great property to raise kids. But the snow was a part of it. I barely can tolerate the typical level of snow here...I couldn’t be happy living in DC or Baltimore. Up here I know I’m guaranteed at least some decent snow every year.  But frankly I can’t wait to move somewhere that gets like 150” a year and has snow on the ground from Thanksgiving to Easter. 

I wonder what housing prices are like on the Tug Hill Plateau.

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26 minutes ago, kgottwald said:

I wonder what housing prices are like on the Tug Hill Plateau.

Yeah, I love the DC area.  I have a job I love, so much to do around here, etc.  But when I retire I’ll be moving to somewhere snowier.  Possible places, Lake Tahoe, Alaska, Maine, Adirondacks.  Tug Hill is snowy but not a ton to do there the rest of the year. 

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