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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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4 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Holy smokes the Para loves North Carolina by the 29th

It’s getting more amplified every run. It’ll get there. But wrong thread. 

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

2 to 4 for N VA and DC... 4 to 8 MD on 00z CMC 

Shovelable..we take

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Weather Will a few hours ago. "GEFS says come back in February"

 

i thought that guy was not going to be around today?

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Not surprisingly, 0z GEFS much improved from 18z.  

53DBB14C-0376-4087-ACA3-7FB3AB7FF407.png

WB weatherwont will be saddened

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Lol...the changes are...well...impressive.

08D80472-CE94-42FD-9E7C-9ABD6C6F9580.png

6EAC2A08-F185-43CF-B309-63CE99E5CBB1.png

As happy as I am that it improved that much, it's pretty frustrating to see even an ensemble change that drastically in one run. An op I understand but come on

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00z EURO looks to be an alright run but it's mighty close. Looks like rates save the day.
Still way too north. Its now the northern outlier

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0z EPS looks essentially the same as previous runs. Still implies a front end thump, but thermals are a tad better than 18z. Snowfall map is almost identical to 12z, ofc there is no way anyone is seeing all snow with that track and the lack of real deal cold in front.

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2 minutes ago, yoda said:

well... at least we stay frozen on 06z GFS

Yes N MD crush job.  But this appears quite the icy mess in the metros.  

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Love the fact i kept hearing the system is going to be suppressed to far south then it comes north north way north lol

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Yes N MD crush job.  But this appears quite the icy mess in the metros.  

PW says 3 to 5 inches snow and 0.25+" ice... i'd take it

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Just now, yoda said:

PW says 3 to 5 inches snow and 0.25+" ice... i'd take it

Yes WSW criteria for many.  Bump it tick south and better.  That low s juiced compared to 0z.  Another tick north and well you know.  But looks like the confluence would make it tough for a solid punch north...I think

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57 minutes ago, yoda said:

well... at least we stay frozen on 06z GFS

Nice to see Gfs join the frozen party . Looks like guidance is pretty much set on a winter storm for the area . Precip types and amounts tbd . 

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5 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said:

For the northern tier, certainly not for southern MD.

You get yours a few days later. See GFS

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1 hour ago, Ruin said:

Love the fact i kept hearing the system is going to be suppressed to far south then it comes north north way north lol

Overunning almost always ends up coming N. Many of us are trying to gauge how much the rex block will play a role in precip shield trajectory and latitudinal advancement.

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Mount Holly's take for the early next week threat. I tend to agree with their general assessment.

The main story in the long term is the potential system Monday into Tuesday. Some of the operational models, most notably the Canadian, trended towards the GFS solution showing a track mostly suppressed to the south, progressive, and weakening as it gets to the eastern U.S.. The ECMWF still shows a slower solution with the low crossing over our region. However, I am a bit skeptical of the ECMWF solution as it depicts the southern stream mid level trough lifting northeast as it deepens without phasing with any shortwave trough in the northern stream. This seems like an odd track for this time of year, and quite a departure from what we`ve seen with recent storm tracks. None the less, I`ve stayed close to the previous forecast given the poor agreement between models and from run to run.

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