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January Long Range Disco Thread

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30 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m hoping we can keep this high lat blocking as well are. But I think if we want warning level events we have to flirt with cutters. They can give good events and that sw to ne flow is also what can bring us a good Miller A and cutters can also develop into they hybrids we were talking about in the other thread

The blocking we have currently would be fine but there is a split flow and nothing but Pac air around for the near term. It looks like the pattern evolution will finally get some decent cold in our source region via EPO ridging, but the tradeoff may be a weaker -NAO. We always flirt with failure no matter what the pattern is, but given how we seem to fail more often lately with marginal air even with pretty favorable h5 looks,  I am all for getting some legit cold in here.

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26 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Can you clarify what makes the upcoming pattern a bootleg NAO ridge vs a true H5 block?

Ridging look to H5 contours at 500mb, not closed off. Look at 6z gfs just for an example. At 114 hrs there is ridging in the isobars. Nothing us closed off as a true block. Then look at 276. A closed H5 look several isos deep. That is a true block look vs a ridge. Not saying it will verify just an example.

gfs_z500a_nhem_20.png

gfs_z500a_nhem_47.png

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Can we get a redux?

FB_IMG_1610026000397.jpg

Careful...that might be the Miller B screw job PSU warned about...don't fall for it! I'm not paying that weekend a bit of mind!!

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2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Careful...that might be the Miller B screw job PSU warned about...don't fall for it! I'm not paying that weekend a bit of mind!!

That's from 5 years ago, and we would all happily take that again.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Whoops! Didn't look at the year...c'mon @Ralph Wiggum just why? Lol

if that map was current, do you think there would of been only 20 posts since last night. C'mon man!

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Just now, Ji said:

the GFS Para never brings any cold air through 384

gfsp_T2m_us_65.png

Cold bias eliminated

But I thought it was doing better.  

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March might be nasty this year.  If you are one whom believes the -NAM state lingers. 

 

The most important aspect of a major SSW is the long, subseasonal persistence of the negative NAM/weakened vortex in the lower-stratosphere. This raises the likelihood of a neg tropospheric NAM & mid-latitude coldwaves across this timescale. For example, the 2004 SSW:
 
 
Image
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Just now, frd said:

March might be nasty this year.  If you are one whom believes the -NAM state lingers. 

 

The most important aspect of a major SSW is the long, subseasonal persistence of the negative NAM/weakened vortex in the lower-stratosphere. This raises the likelihood of a neg tropospheric NAM & mid-latitude coldwaves across this timescale. For example, the 2004 SSW:
 
 
Image

HM has predicting an Early March Blizzard since 2001 for the east coast...maybe this is the year!

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

HM has predicting an Early March Blizzard since 2001 for the east coast...maybe this is the year!

Well why not.  Shoulder month , fits the bill. 

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m hoping we can keep this high lat blocking as we all are. But I think if we want warning level events we have to flirt with cutters. They can give good events and that sw to ne flow is also what can bring us a good Miller A and cutters can also develop into the hybrids we were talking about in the other thread

My favorite part about SWFE events is the ferocity of the thump with a more organized system. No waste on virga, hot and heavy starts, massive aggregates, and typically pastes everything into a wintry scene. I know that you probably really enjoy those living well west of the fall line. Some of the best 12"+ storms are like that in your hood. 

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2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Lets see what @WxUSAF thinks. Would probably be better to rename this thread as well to make it more clear as to the content.

 

2 hours ago, mappy said:

Sounds good to me. 

I removed the subtitle re the WxUSAF storm and changed it to a new one

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4 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I hate it here.:cry:

icon-all-east-precip_6hr_inch-1610020800-1610517600-1610636400-40.gif

this one seems to have a better chance to bump north than the last one

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Even though I'm being half serious....my recollection that in Nina's IF there are any storms around us it typically happens in the South or on the shore. I don't see anything unusual with what some of the models are spitting out. Feel free to correct me, i'm not here to be right just expressing my thought on our current situation

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

this one seems to have a better chance to bump north than the last one

H5 was an Improvement in my eyes.  The NS SW that had been suppressing everything was further out front and the SS SW was slower allowing heights to build again.  It just gets so messy with all the vorts flying around.

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2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Even though I'm being half serious....my recollection that in Nina's IF there are any storms around us it typically happens in the South or on the shore. I don't see anything unusual with what some of the models are spitting out. Feel free to correct me, i'm not here to be right just expressing my thought on our current situation

your absolutely incorrect---we have had plenty of storms this winter including a 5 inch sleet/snow in Leesburg....most of our misses has been because of cold air

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18 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

My favorite part about SWFE events is the ferocity of the thump with a more organized system. No waste on virga, hot and heavy starts, massive aggregates, and typically pastes everything into a wintry scene. I know that you probably really enjoy those living well west of the fall line. Some of the best 12"+ storms are like that in your hood. 

It feels like every year there's discussion of SWFEs, but how often do they actually happen here? And would they actually happen in a Nina (even an atypical one)?

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

H5 was an Improvement in my eyes.  The NS SW that had been suppressing everything was further out front and the SS SW was slower allowing heights to build again.  It just gets so messy with all the vorts flying around.

its actually way better than the 00z icon...

 

and its still the icon.....no panic yet...until the euro takes our 4-8 away again at 12z

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3 hours ago, CAPE said:

The general themes I see on the ens members, looking over them quickly, is either a more amped/phased solution with more precip (but warmer), or weak/sheared and south. The former may work out for NW areas for some frozen, but its not a good setup for those east of the fall line with not much cold available. The latter probably doesn't thrill anyone.

For my yard, I don't care much for the trends over the last several ensemble runs for next week, but some changes are likely. My focus is still towards mid month and esp beyond.

eta- I looked at both the EPS and GEFS. GEFS has more weaker/south solutions than the EPS

I tend to agree but didn't want to be the one to say it (especially given my location).  But the issue is both the lack of deep cold but also where the little cold is centered to our west combined with the suppressive flow to our northeast.  That combination favors one of 2 scenarios...lacking a good baroclinic boundary and facing a hostile flow the system shears out or gets squashed south or the system amplifies enough to increase ridging in front of it and comes up...but that favors a track inside what the coastal plain would need given the antecedent airmass.  Even up here, if the storm ends up phased or amplified enough to ride the coast rain is a threat imo.  But...I think your time will come...things are starting to come into focus (and its following the expected progression frankly) down the line.  Better threats for the coastal plain east of 95 will be ahead imo.  

2 hours ago, nj2va said:

@frd all of that is fine and interesting, but I’m over tracking wind changes and pattern changes, and ready to track a threat.  :sled:

I totally get it...and I agree.  I would much rather be discussing the details of a specific threat...but we need somewhere to discuss the broad pattern stuff also...and this is the place.  I do kind of agree maybe a split thread just for long range pattern discussion would be good and a thread for medium range day 3-6 type more specific storm threats...but we did try that once and people (intentionally IMO) mucked that up too.  

2 hours ago, frd said:

 

@CAPE @psuhoffman  Can you share your thoughts about this look in fantasy land. 

Is this a Mantiboa Mauler pattern ? 

image.png.3eca733bda43d999ddfca33414cadd59.png

That look is kind of extreme and rare.   Normally I would say it's not worth digging into an op at range but all the ensemble guidance supports that general idea.  The ensembles favor the block more towards Baffin (which might be even better for us) but the idea of a severely displaced northern stream running across the CONUS under the block is there across all guidance.  The thing about that look is the STJ would be pretty cut off coming in off the SW and normally that would be a problem (typical nina stuff) and we would need to get the NS to dig under us (normally a dead end) but that look is so extreme its actually possible we could get the pacific systems to dig down far enough south that it could be a west to east hybrid miller b type pattern which is a good one for us...provided the NS comes in far enough south.  The danger would be if that shifts north some...and the NS comes across at about our latitude instead of across to our south...it becomes a cold dry pure miller b look.  

On a more general pattern note, stuff is coming into clarity a bit better now.  There is a relax and that opens the door next week to a threat, but its low probability on the coastal plain due to a still crappy airmass.  But after the blocking relax all guidance suggests it does not break down but reloads centered more towards Baffin to Greenland next time.  This current round was actually centered too far south for us to be ideal for a big storm amplifying up the coast.  It is incredibly encouraging imo that even during the relaxation period the AO/NAO remain firmly negative and the next attempt by the TPV to consolidate is squashed like a bug and we tank again.  The look day 10-15 is frankly EXCELLENT across all guidance now.  That look with blocking centered from central Baffin to Greenland with a displaced TPV over Quebec is freaking awesome for us.  Its the rare combination of cold and promotes a good storm track.  If that is where this is heading I would be incredibly shocked if we don't get significant snow in the January 15-30 period.  

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I feel like we tried that before and it ended up just getting muddled and mixed up immediately anyway. 

I think one of the problems is we have become so strict and conservative about starting specific storm threads.  We used to have a thread for a storm once it came into medium range but we decided the threads were why our storm threats died so now no one wants to start a storm thread until its like right on top of us and so for days we get medium range specific storm discussion in the long range thread.  I am ok either way.  I can multi-task in this thread.  But imo we should either go back to starting specific threat threads once a discreet event enters medium range and forget this silly superstitious stuff...or if everyone is so convinced that will kill storms and its too annoying to start a new thread each time have a designated medium range thread to discuss stuff in the day 3-6 range.   

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2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

H5 was an Improvement in my eyes.  The NS SW that had been suppressing everything was further out front and the SS SW was slower allowing heights to build again.  It just gets so messy with all the vorts flying around.

ive seen worse situations 144 hours out lol

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_48.png

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31 minutes ago, Ji said:

HM has predicting an Early March Blizzard since 2001 for the east coast...maybe this is the year!

Going to be a March to remember! Storms and rumors of storms. 

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Just now, blizzardmeiser said:

Going to be a March to remember! Storms and rumors of storms. 

Feb will be rocking and then March will have a blizzard like 1993.

Feb 2010/March 1993 winter ending coming

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Sure doesn’t look good so far to me. Looks less deep and a perfectly timed sw to the north to suppress it. Early calls end up wrong but at least so far I’m not a fan

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