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January Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Storm/precip shield is more robust down south vs 18z, but next few panels has me worried

 

Just now, stormtracker said:

Power house 1013 low.

It’s healthier then it was. But it’s going to be close getting it amplified enough to be able to lift and survive the shred factory flow. But the setup is there!  There are legit options. A stronger wave could just bully its way. Preferable get some NS phasing and NOT leave a piece behind that elongates the trough like the last couple runs and you get those monster euro solutions from yesterday.  @Ji yes it evolved different at the surface but it was not really different systems. Same upper level energy just one version let the initial southern wave escape then redeveloped a new surface low. 

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@WxUSAF if you look the h5 going back 72 hours and through the next 160 hours the flow is perfect with vort and vort tracking just under us. But nothing is amplifying at the surface. I’m starting to think part of the problem (other then just fast flow and crowded field) is the lack of healthy baroclinicity. There just isn’t much of a thermal gradient to fuel a surface system to amplify. The airmass is all blah everywhere. Do you think that’s part of the problem?  

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF if you look the h5 going back 72 hours and through the next 160 hours the flow is perfect with vort and vort tracking just under us. But nothing is amplifying at the surface. I’m starting to think part of the problem (other then just fast flow and crowded field) is the lack of healthy baroclinicity. There just isn’t much of a thermal gradient to fuel a surface system to amplify. The airmass is all blah everywhere. Do you think that’s part of the problem?  

I agree with what you are saying! Temps day and night are remarkably stable  not much of a variation.  We do need a better baroclinic zone and temperature gradient to develop those all important coastal fronts that east coast storms love to feed off of the gradient and whatever warmer ocean temps may be near by but we also need the cold not this modified suedo that we currently have.

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