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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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After that run I’m going to be very disappointed in Saluda NC get a dusting


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Showing range of 3.5-2” for you and east into Rutherford for me.


.
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There's a nice cutoff 850 low over eastern nc friday night. Should provide a nice band of snow over central nc. Exciting trends on the nam tonight for the triangle.

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1 minute ago, StoneColdWeatherAustin said:

Is it just me or is anyone else not getting updated SREF Plumes since this afternoon ?

Same for me

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I'm gonna pretend I didn't see the latest RDPS. Gives me less than an inch after multiple runs with 4 to 6

snku_acc.us_ma (1) (22).png

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

I'm gonna pretend I didn't see the latest RDPS. Gives me less than an inch after multiple runs with 4 to 6

snku_acc.us_ma (1) (22).png

 

I am chasing to Boone and I'm getting concerned with the runs on the 00z with the lack of moisture on the front end for our area. 

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3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm gonna pretend I didn't see the latest RDPS. Gives me less than an inch after multiple runs with 4 to 6

Agree. It took away my half inch. Damn 

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1 minute ago, NC_WX10 said:

 

I am chasing to Boone and I'm getting concerned with the runs on the 00z with the lack of moisture on the front end for our area. 

Someone's gonna be shafted near us with downsloping away from the main bands. Probably me.

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Someone's gonna be shafted near us with downsloping away from the main bands. Probably me.

I know how you feel. I’m in full chase mode Friday. I’m going to find me snow somehow 

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Just now, wncsnow said:

Someone's gonna be shafted near us with downsloping away from the main bands. Probably me.

Someone is definitely going to get shafted. I was thinking that the east facing slopes would have less moisture in this setup but it seems like areas further west have lower totals taking the 00z models verbatim. 

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The variance in modeling is amazing this close to the event.  Virtually every location has models showing jack pots and whiffs.  The only real lock seems like the Southern mountains and eastern escarpment, but the RGEM looks pretty rough for those areas.

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14 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

There's a nice cutoff 850 low over eastern nc friday night. Should provide a nice band of snow over central nc. Exciting trends on the nam tonight for the triangle.

So are you of the faction that considers the Triad “central NC?”

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The variance in modeling is amazing this close to the event.  Virtually every location has models showing jack pots and whiffs.  The only real lock seems like the Southern mountains and eastern escarpment, but the RGEM looks pretty rough for those areas.

The disagreement with the ensembles with some of these is stunning.

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Just now, ChesterfieldVa80 said:

This is really surprising considering the nam was a whiff for VA. I wonder if there is a member or two skewing the mean.

Probably overdone but the SREF is showing widespread .50-.75 QPF

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Don't pin your hopes on the SREF mean.  It's fun to look at but it's trash. If it's correct it's by random luck.

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12 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

The variance in modeling is amazing this close to the event.  Virtually every location has models showing jack pots and whiffs.  The only real lock seems like the Southern mountains and eastern escarpment, but the RGEM looks pretty rough for those areas.

I agree. Brad P just posted that the snow trend was slightly south. He include Charlotte in the 1 inch range. Dang this is tough. 

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