BIG FROSTY Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS v16 Snowfall Trend Loop Pathetic! If any of the GFS models get it right, it will absolutely be by a accident. It's really just like always in NC, If you're outside the Mountains you won't know until about 24 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 0z CMCSent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghicks Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: Pathetic! If any of the GFS models get it right, it will absolutely be by a accident. It's really just like always in NC, If you're outside the Mountains you won't know until about 24 hours out. So true I am in your area frosty and it can be frustrating to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Canadian cut QPF big time in WNC/Upstate/NGA same as the GFS. GFS got ensemble support for slightly weaker/dryer solution too. Wonder if the Euro comes in similar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 0z UKMET with very little snow outside of the mountains... thats not a sign I like from this model.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The UK is farther north than the GFS and NAM. QPF is pretty good though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RT1980 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 23 minutes ago, wncsnow said: The UK is farther north than the GFS and NAM. QPF is pretty good though Not taking a model run verbatim, but what’s with the 1” around eastern Harnett county? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 12 minutes ago, RT1980 said: Not taking a model run verbatim, but what’s with the 1” around eastern Harnett county? Mostly a product of heavier rates and better forcing that allows some snow to accumulate despite warm surface temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jjwxman Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Not taking a model run verbatim, but what’s with the 1” around eastern Harnett county?I’m thinking the UK is splitting hairs here. The surface temps are just above freezing but the entire column is below freezing just on the back side of the low. I’m thinking the UK was extremely close to having a nice band of snow moving across central NC. One could argue it should be snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Looking solid on the Euro so far, a smidge north of last run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Once again, the wave is weaker than the previous run and further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 East Tennessee may be the big winner this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 NW NC ends up doing well this run but less in the mountains and foothills. Snow axis is shifted north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForsythWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 00z euro looking good for triad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6z NAM looks like just a cold rain outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwisephoto Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 6z gfs looks dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lilj4425 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Well, it was fun while it lasted. Time to throw in the towel for this system on my end. I don’t see anybody outside of the mtns getting any accumulations. **reverse psychology** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 1 hour ago, SimeonNC said: It weirdly crushes the Upstate of SC tho. The 06z 84hr NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 RAH still not biting on any frozen accumulation. That’s probably a safe take on things at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 2 hours ago, Jwisephoto said: 6z gfs looks dry. ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jwisephoto Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, msuwx said: ?? Dry on the snow side of things... not rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthHillsWx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 The splotchy appearance on the models indicates a truth with an ULL setup and limited cold air: accumulations are likely to be localized and not widespread. It may end up difficult to pin down where they will occur bc rates will need to overcome warm BL temps to get snow to the ground and even more so for accumulation to occur. I do not doubt someone sees some snow stick outside of the mountains but nothing in this setup screams a widespread storm and it may be county-wide or smaller meso scale banding features that setup that will be difficulty to pinpoint and offer very small windows for snow to fall and stick. Obviously the chance for these features to setup decreases with less dynamics and less moisture and lift as some overnight guidance has trended. Interesting system but I wouldn’t bet the house on seeing anything past token flakes outside of the mountains almost until we are now casting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msuwx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 55 minutes ago, Jwisephoto said: Dry on the snow side of things... not rain. While it isn't as aggressive as some other models, the 6z GFS actually beefed up the snow totals in much of NC compared to its 0z run. See the comparison below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Some of you experts can weigh in on this , but does it seem like the GFS is on to something, by not being as wide spread event and just scattered? Or would you lean more toward the EURO/EPS , with it being more widespread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 SREF mean is over 2 inches here now. I think this run of the NAM will be a little bigger. Energy looks a bit stronger so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, wncsnow said: SREF mean is over 2 inches here now. I think this run of the NAM will be a little bigger. Energy looks a bit stronger so far Agree. Closed and going negative over Northern LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Nam closes off at hour 42, still open at 48 on 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 Nam is also faster than the 00z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 5, 2021 Share Posted January 5, 2021 And its a little north from the 6z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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