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January 8th-9th threat


BullCityWx
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4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Pathetic!  If any of the GFS models get it right, it will absolutely be by a accident.   It's really just like always in NC, If you're outside the Mountains you won't know until about 24 hours out.  

So true I am in your area frosty and it can be frustrating to say the least 

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Not taking a model run verbatim, but what’s with the 1” around eastern Harnett county?

I’m thinking the UK is splitting hairs here. The surface temps are just above freezing but the entire column is below freezing just on the back side of the low. I’m thinking the UK was extremely close to having a nice band of snow moving across central NC. One could argue it should be snow.


0bc440c63e15b2888848d12d26cfb3a5.png2652d0da92a7c45fc0d7342eb8115916.png


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The splotchy appearance on the models indicates a truth with an ULL setup and limited cold air: accumulations are likely to be localized and not widespread. It may end up difficult to pin down where they will occur bc rates will need to overcome warm BL temps to get snow to the ground and even more so for accumulation to occur. I do not doubt someone sees some snow stick outside of the mountains but nothing in this setup screams a widespread storm and it may be county-wide or smaller meso scale banding features that setup that will be difficulty to pinpoint and offer very small windows for snow to fall and stick. Obviously the chance for these features to setup decreases with less dynamics and less moisture and lift as some overnight guidance has trended. Interesting system but I wouldn’t bet the house on seeing anything past token flakes outside of the mountains almost until we are now casting 

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55 minutes ago, Jwisephoto said:

Dry on the snow side of things... not rain.

While it isn't as aggressive as some other models, the 6z GFS actually beefed up the snow totals in much of NC compared to its 0z run.

See the comparison below:

1791531251_0105GFSComp.thumb.png.867b72c6044eb36b67af5fbbdc31fa1e.png

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  • jburns unpinned this topic

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