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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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15 minutes ago, griteater said:

GFS v16 Snowfall Trend Loop

u99Qwru.gif

Pathetic!  If any of the GFS models get it right, it will absolutely be by a accident.   It's really just like always in NC, If you're outside the Mountains you won't know until about 24 hours out.  

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4 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

Pathetic!  If any of the GFS models get it right, it will absolutely be by a accident.   It's really just like always in NC, If you're outside the Mountains you won't know until about 24 hours out.  

So true I am in your area frosty and it can be frustrating to say the least 

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Canadian cut QPF big time in WNC/Upstate/NGA same as the GFS. GFS got ensemble support for slightly weaker/dryer solution too. Wonder if the Euro comes in similar?

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23 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

The UK is farther north than the GFS and NAM. QPF is pretty good though 

sn10_acc.us_ma (23).png

Not taking a model run verbatim, but what’s with the 1” around eastern Harnett county?

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12 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

Not taking a model run verbatim, but what’s with the 1” around eastern Harnett county?

Mostly a product of heavier rates and better forcing that allows some snow to accumulate despite warm surface temps

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Not taking a model run verbatim, but what’s with the 1” around eastern Harnett county?

I’m thinking the UK is splitting hairs here. The surface temps are just above freezing but the entire column is below freezing just on the back side of the low. I’m thinking the UK was extremely close to having a nice band of snow moving across central NC. One could argue it should be snow.


0bc440c63e15b2888848d12d26cfb3a5.png2652d0da92a7c45fc0d7342eb8115916.png


.

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NW NC ends up doing well this run but less in the mountains and foothills. Snow axis is shifted north 

sn10_acc.us_ma (25).png

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Well, it was fun while it lasted. Time to throw in the towel for this system on my end. I don’t see anybody outside of the mtns getting any accumulations. 
 

**reverse psychology**

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The splotchy appearance on the models indicates a truth with an ULL setup and limited cold air: accumulations are likely to be localized and not widespread. It may end up difficult to pin down where they will occur bc rates will need to overcome warm BL temps to get snow to the ground and even more so for accumulation to occur. I do not doubt someone sees some snow stick outside of the mountains but nothing in this setup screams a widespread storm and it may be county-wide or smaller meso scale banding features that setup that will be difficulty to pinpoint and offer very small windows for snow to fall and stick. Obviously the chance for these features to setup decreases with less dynamics and less moisture and lift as some overnight guidance has trended. Interesting system but I wouldn’t bet the house on seeing anything past token flakes outside of the mountains almost until we are now casting 

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55 minutes ago, Jwisephoto said:

Dry on the snow side of things... not rain.

While it isn't as aggressive as some other models, the 6z GFS actually beefed up the snow totals in much of NC compared to its 0z run.

See the comparison below:

1791531251_0105GFSComp.thumb.png.867b72c6044eb36b67af5fbbdc31fa1e.png

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Some of you experts can weigh in on this , but does it seem like the GFS is on to something, by not being as wide spread event and just scattered? Or would you lean more toward the EURO/EPS , with it being more widespread?

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SREF mean is over 2 inches here now. I think this run of the NAM will be a little bigger. Energy looks a bit stronger so far 

850hv.conus (3).png

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