Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 NAM is way south with the low at 81... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Wow said: I can work with this yes.... I know it’s the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Easy now that's too far south 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Easy now that's too far south I would think this is exactly where we would want it as of now. Think blending all the modeling so to speak. Then again, I’m just am amateur. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Easy now that's too far south I would think this is exactly where we would want it as of now. Think blending all the modeling so to speak. Then again, I’m just am amateur. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, wncsnow said: Easy now that's too far south That’s perfect for the upstate and Charlotte Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The trough axis stays positive longer.. that'll help with WAA and any warm noses ahead of the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, burrel2 said: That’s perfect for the upstate and Charlotte Not for WNC where temps would be more supportive of snow. Interesting though since the NAM used to be the most amped model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 11 minutes ago, Wow said: Come back North! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Rough first call for now would be 4-8 (locally 12) WNC Mountains, 3-6 Triad-Danville, VA, 1-3 east of GSO to Durham, <1 Raleigh 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 The NAM is also much slower than the Euro and other globals. It's already snowing at 84 in WNC on the Euro and no moisture even close on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, eyewall said: Rough first call for now would be 4-8 (locally 12) WNC Mountains, 3-6 Triad-Danville, VA, 1-3 east of GSO to Durham, <1 Raleigh I think that’s pretty solid right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Looking at the ECENS graphs, it’s interesting to note at Burlington, about 27 of 49 total ensemble members have 3” or more. You want to see that sort of spread instead of bigger members outweighing a bunch saying no snow. Only four ensemble members show nothing at all and eighteen have 3” or under. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tar Heel Snow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just getting caught up here, so apologies if this has been mentioned, but ratios also will be down, maybe 5:1. I think a LOT of this storm is going to have to wait until the final hours just to get a handle on where strong bands will set up and to narrow down p types. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Should be getting some RAOB data on the wave in next 12hrs I would guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 18z GFS slower with the ULL energy as well, same as the NAM so the trough axis is a bit more positive at 66 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 hour ago, eyewall said: Rough first call for now would be 4-8 (locally 12) WNC Mountains, 3-6 Triad-Danville, VA, 1-3 east of GSO to Durham, <1 Raleigh Good call... I'm assuming you aren't putting much stock in the NAM at this point... with its extremely south track 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 fully stacked ULL to surface low over SE NC at 96 hrs. Beautiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 The GFS is truly the Ralph Wiggum of weather modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TARHEELPROGRAMMER88 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GFS says no to snow in most places but who is down for some rain? Haven't seen that in a while in NC /s GFS is either to warm or it is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 18z GFS just doesn't have the cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 GFS clown Kuchera ratio Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Just now, griteater said: Almost like a deform band forms from @jburns house to my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDawg Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Oh man 6-12 County wide here in NE GA, and I thought the 12z was about as good as it could get lol. Wonder how much surface melting will be an issue or will the heavy rates be able to push the 0c thermals to the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2021 Author Share Posted January 4, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 1 minute ago, BullCityWx said: Hopefully this is a trend with the GFS and it gets better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 Bump north on the GFS v16 this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 4, 2021 Share Posted January 4, 2021 3 minutes ago, griteater said: Bump north on the GFS v16 this run Now that run I like lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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