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Obs and nowcast Sun 9A Jan 3 - 6A Mon Jan 4 2021


wdrag
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Mostly all rain should be confined to the region s of I-78, LI-NYC.  Sleet or snow begins near I78 ~9 or 10A and spreads northeast, possibly possibly drying out to flurries reaching CT/se NYS midday. Thereafter the bigger part of this event occurs 2PM-2AM as mostly wet snow just nw of I95.

Heaviest snowfall seems slated for the elevations including the Poconos-Catskills with 3-5", 2 to possibly 5" rest of se NYS, nw NJ along and north of I80 to the Merritt Parkway-in other words west of the CT River, but possibly a dryer zone of under 2" to at most 4" ne CT-central MA. These amounts are uncertain-based on guidance through the 06z/3 cycle. There will be melting on pavement today below 700 feet elevation during the day but a plowable snow seems certain for the hilly areas, especially w of the CT River with accumulation on all untreated surfaces after sundown. 

The precipitation driver will probably at least in part be an inverted trough developing northwest from a rapidly deepening low pressure system heading east northeast of the mid Atlantic coast. The inverted portion of the trough should be back to the Poconos and that I think is why the heavier qpf tends to be modeled there.

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fwiw.. I like what's going on with the 11z temps... I see it as plenty cold for snow...a ne breeze with overcast skies and 29F here in Wantage of nw NJ.  There will be a little +1C aloft that we'll have to clear out by tonight but that would be the sleet part in the I80-i95 region. 

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