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Chicago Storm

Winter 2020/2021 Short Range Discussion

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My point and click forecast for Rochester (lol) went from 7.8 inches to 7.2 inches to 6 inches. By the time it starts ripping, it will be down to 3 inches. 

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The more bullish model runs (Euro) for eastern Iowa were rubbish.  My area may get an inch or two before the low spins up and pulls the dry slot over eastern Iowa.

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24 minutes ago, WaryWarren said:

My point and click forecast for Rochester (lol) went from 7.8 inches to 7.2 inches to 6 inches. By the time it starts ripping, it will be down to 3 inches. 

Yeah that would be nice That would be great - That Would Be Great (Office  Space Bill Lumbergh) | Make a Meme

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

 Will be interesting to see if this is going to rise to the bar of needing a snow squall warning.

 

Would love that - hasn't been used yet and would be fun for some convective snow squalls

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As was mentioned, relatively slow motion/pivoting nature could allow these to hang over a particular area for some time.  Will be interesting to see if this is going to rise to the bar of needing a snow squall warning. 18Z-20210114_HRRRNIL_prec_ptype-18-30-50-100.gif.4ebb65b3dfb325c3c63b73bb8e5e19e9.gif    

 

The SQW has a wind component so I don't think we would be issuing one unless it's really ripping under a few of the snow showers tomorrow. That plus temps being near to slightly above 32F should mitigate road impacts some as well.      

 

 

That said, I think we could see 30-40 dbz popcorn tomorrow. If snow shower coverage is more widespread and we're getting higher end impacts, could envision a short fused WWA vs SQW. On order of likelihood of product issuance tomorrow, I'd go SPS, WWA and then very remote chance of SQW.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, mimillman said:

RN. Haven't seen it rain like this in a long time. So good to see precipitation. Anything.

Actually still have drought conditions south of the city.

20210112_Midwest_trd.thumb.jpg.9408368f0633d8bc28cdf02d6b984906.jpg

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5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Actually still have drought conditions south of the city.

20210112_Midwest_trd.thumb.jpg.9408368f0633d8bc28cdf02d6b984906.jpg

I would like to experience MSP winter drought

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1 hour ago, RCNYILWX said:

The SQW has a wind component so I don't think we would be issuing one unless it's really ripping under a few of the snow showers tomorrow. That plus temps being near to slightly above 32F should mitigate road impacts some as well.      

 

 

That said, I think we could see 30-40 dbz popcorn tomorrow. If snow shower coverage is more widespread and we're getting higher end impacts, could envision a short fused WWA vs SQW. On order of likelihood of product issuance tomorrow, I'd go SPS, WWA and then very remote chance of SQW.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Your first sentence about a wind component was something I didn't remember, so I checked the criteria for SQW.  The wind criteria is not explicit like it is for a blizzard warning, but the visibility criteria for the SQW (less than 1/4 mile) is harder to satisfy without windy conditions.  It would need to be puking snow.  

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3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Hoosier finds any excuse to post that map

Feels even better posting it in a winter thread.  :scooter:

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It's dud city over here.  Last night's Euro showing several inches pounding this area this evening was ridiculously wrong.  Even the driest models for this area may be too aggressive.  All we are getting is light snow that is struggling to accumulate.  Even 1" may be tough to get at this point.

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It's dud city over here.  Last night's Euro showing several inches pounding this area this evening was ridiculously wrong.  Even the driest models for this area may be too aggressive.  All we are getting is light snow that is struggling to accumulate.  Even 1" may be tough to get at this point.
We'll take it.

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5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

It's dud city over here.  Last night's Euro showing several inches pounding this area this evening was ridiculously wrong.  Even the driest models for this area may be too aggressive.  All we are getting is light snow that is struggling to accumulate.  Even 1" may be tough to get at this point.

Sounds like Cedar Rapids is returning to form.  :(

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35 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

Hoosier finds any excuse to post that map

when it shows in the virus thread you know the moderator has finally cracked.

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