January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[MJO812]

44 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

its not mostly rain on that euro run FYI

Nice front end thump 

[Brian5671]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nice front end thump 

that would work....something to track at least instead of 40 degrees and cloudy or partly cloudy every day

[snowman19]

6 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

that would work....something to track at least instead of 40 degrees and cloudy or partly cloudy every day

EPS is a New England snow event for that one. Has less snow for us than the operational, has a stronger primary parent low cutting into the Great Lakes

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

EPS is a New England snow event for that one. Has less snow for us than the operational, has a stronger primary parent low cutting into the Great Lakes

I think this is a NE set up, as well, but I don't think the mean showing less snow than the OP is a red flag...par for the course.

[bluewave]

The EPS weeklies are slightly less warm for February than previous runs. Perhaps, the MJO signal getting over to 7-8 is responsible for the change. The VP anomalies indicate a 4-5...7-8 forcing split. Root for more toward phase 8.

 

[jfklganyc]

47F Insects galore. Its like we live in a new climate...as soon as we pop into the mid 40s, they come out

[MJO812]

Gfs and Para have waves after waves and very cold  in the long range.

[Allsnow]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

The EPS weeklies are slightly less warm for February than previous runs. Perhaps, the MJO signal getting over to 7-8 is responsible for the change. The VP anomalies indicate a 4-5...7-8 forcing split. Root for more toward phase 8.

 

Warmest week is +2 and no sign of a -pna. Has a -nao throughout 

[bluewave]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Warmest week is +2 and no sign of a -pna. Has a -nao throughout 

The biggest change for the first week of February is more poleward extension of the global ridges. So heights are a little higher over the SW U.S. up to the Aleutians and Pole. We may end up with further improvements in later runs.

New run Feb 1-7

Old run

[CIK62]

GEFS Extended and EURO Weeklies are similar:     The first 5-day period that has BN T's is centered near the 24th in both cases and they both end centered near Feb. 05.        Any snow cover throughout our area could extend this I suppose.          There is a comeback in late Feb. into early Mar.           Maybe  El Gordo and then La Primavera.

Unfortunately the GFS OP wants to lay waste to the next 12 days.

[donsutherland1]

A relatively quiet weather pattern remains in place. The dry weather could last through much of this week before a storm impacts the region late Friday or Saturday with some showers or perhaps periods of rain.

The first 15 days of January are well on track toward finishing generally warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada overall.

During the second half of January, there will be some potential for snow events in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. There has been persistent ensemble support during the January 21-23 timeframe for at least some snowfall in the region.

Afterward, the evolution of the AO will determine whether such potential continues into February. Uncertainty about the long-range has increased. There had been emerging ensemble guidance showing that the AO could go positive in the closing week of January, but more recent guidance shows a continuation of Arctic blocking.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +20.26 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.620.

On January 13 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.232 (RMM). The January 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.259.

Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The mean zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. They could still reverse at 30 mb. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will likely split. The dominant piece will, as is typical with such events, migrate to Eurasia.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. Blocking appears likely to continue into at least the last week of January.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 82% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.5°.

 

[eduggs]

It feels like we're starting to get a little momentum going today. Let's keep it going tonight.

[eduggs]

As usual the GFS is pouring cold water on the situation and stalling our momentum.

[eduggs]

And the CMC follows suit with a boring run. 

It's been exactly 1 month since we strung 2 good model cycles together in a row. A dreadful stretch. 

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

As usual the GFS is pouring cold water on the situation and stalling our momentum.

Too far out to expect every whole run to be good, though. We’ll see if most of the runs show anything tomorrow.

[LibertyBell]

22 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are actually doing better here relative to the means than areas closer to the Northern Tier. NYC is still ahead of Grand Rapids in snowfall through January 13th. Bismarck has gone the latest ever without a reading below 0°.Their average first below 0° date since 1980 is December 1st. So this would be like NYC not going below freezing until January.

Time Series Summary for Bismarck Area, ND (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Lowest Min Temperature Oct 1 to Jan 13	Missing Count
1	2021-01-13	0	0
2	1955-01-13	-6	0
3	2012-01-13	-7	0
-	2003-01-13	-7	0
-	1983-01-13	-7	0
-	1908-01-13	-7	0
-	1891-01-13	-7	0

 

With regards to temps though is the NE the fastest warming part of the country, Chris?

Also, which year holds the top spot as the warmest- I've seen varying reports that it's either 2016 or 2020- why the discrepancy?

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

I am hoping we can can sneak in a couple of small to moderate events like we did under this teleconnection pattern in early February 1985. But I won’t trust the models beyond 5 days with such a fast flow and abundance of short waves. We would probably need a perfect SWFE . One that isn’t too amped but just strong enough so the fast flow and 50/50 don’t suppress it.

Climatological Data for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - February 1985
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Date	Max Temperature	Min Temperature	Avg Temperature	Avg Temperature Departure	HDD	CDD	Precipitation	Snowfall	Snow Depth
1985-02-01	37	32	34.5	1.3	30	0	0.39	0.0	1
1985-02-02	35	25	30.0	-3.3	35	0	0.50	4.3	1
1985-02-03	30	19	24.5	-8.9	40	0	0.00	0.0	4
1985-02-04	33	17	25.0	-8.5	40	0	0.00	0.0	4
1985-02-05	28	23	25.5	-8.2	39	0	0.23	3.3	3
1985-02-06	28	24	26.0	-7.8	39	0	0.17	2.4	7

You mean like the one we got in late Feb 2008?  That was 6-8 inches......

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Bamwx is awful

They ban people who disagree with them

dont need "arctic air" anyway dude, you just need air cold enough to produce snow.

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, NEG NAO said:

its a light to moderate event 3 - 4 inches and probably turns to sleet and drizzle before ending

that almost sounds like the SWFE we got in Feb 2008, changed to drizzle at the end after a 6-8 inch thump of snow.

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

that would work....something to track at least instead of 40 degrees and cloudy or partly cloudy every day

if it isn't going to snow 50 and sunny would be a lot better.

[wdrag]

Good Friday morning everyone, Jan 15. I cannot topic anything right now before the 25th, and possibly nothing til the 29th or after. Blocking suppression seems to be dominant though 00z/15 GEPS and EPS give us some hope for the 21st-22nd.  Am not convinced yet- 00z-06z/15 GFS V15-16, NAEFS not enthused.  Am hoping that maybe an inverted trough back from the Atlantic will help us sometime between the 20th-21st, if we cant get a wave of low pressure to run as far north as the Delmarva on the 21st-early 22. 

Tonight-Sunday morning I84 high terrain above 1000 feet which leaves out nw NJ except Vernon, northern Wantage and the High Point area, also probably leaving out CT east of Burlington-Hartford:  Rain tonight will mix with or change to wet snow or even freezing rain at times in some of the Poconos and northern Litchfield County CT, then just become snow showers at times Saturday into Sunday. Probably only an inch or less, but possibly a little higher amounts. 

 

Monday: I84 corridor, maybe a period of flurries?

 

Tuesday night or Wednesday: I84 corridor..possibly a period or two of small accumulative snow? 

 

Hopefully others are more enthused about the modeling or maybe it will all come together for us soon. Regards. 

 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 37degs.(33/42).           Making it 32degs , or just Normal.

No snow to speak of anywhere or time.     GFS is bone dry after 1"+ tonight/tomorrow.

Well at least the last 6 days of the month are averaging 23degs(18/28),uncorrected.

41*(75%RH) here at 6am.        43* by 9am.        44* by 10am.          49* by Noon.         48* by 3pm.

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We had a +PNA in late February 2008. Now we are heading into a -PNA. So we need some luck in our side to get even a light to moderate snow event. The -PNA -EPO -AO intervals of the past produced snowfalls in the T to 5.7 range. Our best teleconnection pattern for 10” or greater snows during a La Niña is -EPO +PNA  -AO like we had in mid-December. We need help from all three indices when there is such a dominant Pacific Jet during a La Niña year. During El Niño’s with a dominant STJ and weaker Pacific Jet, +EPO +PNA -AO can do fine.

PNA for 2-22-08 event

2008  2 16  1.179
2008  2 17  1.513
2008  2 18  1.646
2008  2 19  1.568
2008  2 20  1.532
2008  2 21  1.109
2008  2 22  0.652

But for temperatures, especially in the post 1990 era, that either combo more likely than not results in above normal temps, Chris.  Snowstorms have somewhat of a luck factor especially for us near the coast.  Also how long is this -PNA forecast to last?  What's causing the changes in the February projections?

 

 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

But for temperatures, especially in the post 1990 era, that either combo more likely than not results in above normal temps, Chris.  Snowstorms have somewhat of a luck factor especially for us near the coast.

 

The definition of luck these days is getting the Pacific to cooperate. Notice how the -PNA amps  of the Pacific Jet as it crosses the country around the 22nd. This 200KT Jet max allows the primary low to scoot by to our north. The secondary gets going further to the east as it squeezes under the 50/50.
 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

According to the weeklies we are on the cold side of the boundary through at least mid February thanks to the negative AO and NAO.

However if this dry weather continues I would rather lose the block and get the SE Ridge to pop. Warm up.

Nothing worse than cold and dry IMO.

 

[gravitylover]

Yay for freezing (dense) fog  It's ugly out there this morning.

[EastonSN+]

7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The definition of luck these days is getting the Pacific to cooperate. Notice how the -PNA amps  of the Pacific Jet as it crosses the country around the 22nd. This 200KT Jet max allows the low to scoot by to our north. 
 

 

 

Learning. So for the above the jet is keeping the northern and southern stream lows from merging, correct? The Jet is pushing the northern stream faster and from dipping, leaving the southern stream low behind and intimately south of us.

I would think this would be a good setup for the south to score more snow.

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

According to the weeklies we are on the cold side of the boundary through at least mid February thanks to the negative AO and NAO.

However if this dry weather continues I would rather lose the block and get the SE Ridge to pop. Warm up.

Nothing worse than cold and dry IMO.

 

My fault. We stay on the cold side of the boundary straight through February!

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Learning. So for the above the jet is keeping the northern and southern stream lows from merging, correct? The Jet is pushing the northern stream faster and from dipping, leaving the southern stream low behind and intimately south of us.

I would think this would be a good setup for the south to score more snow.

We always run the risk of suppression when there is a -strong -PNA trough in the West and a strong 50/50 low to our east. 

[wdrag]

16 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yay for freezing (dense) fog  It's ugly out there this morning.

Ditto Wantage NJ at 757A 31.5 1/4Mi vsby.