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January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread


Stormlover74
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3 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

I don't understand his screen name with everything he posts. He should really change it to rainman or warmandwet. 

He posts the opposite what other posts all the time. 

He keeps posting about the negative PNA ruining  the winter but the models are also showing a negative epo and negative AO/ NAO.

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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I will be happy If we can get that -PNA trough  off the West Coast for at least a few days. The 360 hr EPS is taking a step in the right  direction. But you can see how important that ridge over the Plains was for the 3-22-18 event when the -PNA trough pulled back.

F5DC00BB-1CF0-4366-A345-ACC8305B0A13.gif.9b735deccd622efce3dd37254538aaa6.gif

 

 

 

We have to account for the longer wavelengths this time of year though, no?

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58 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Snowman19  keeps denying everything you post.

Anthony, I believe S19 is more of a skeptic in delivery. Its perhaps advisable to have a skeptics view is a sea of hearts and floweres. That individual will likely be the only one to find the leak in the boat. The Gods are kind in allowing it to be foisted on you for a limited amount of times daily. As always ....

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1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

We have to account for the longer wavelengths this time of year though, no?

This is the composite for the last 10 La Niña events to reach 6” or more in NYC during January and February. That’s why we need that -PNA trough out West to pull back off the West Coast at storm time. Like I said in the post above, relevant details like that may not be known for a while yet. And there may have probably been lesser than 6” storms that had more leeway.

3B81C57F-7EC6-4203-B4C1-641631F6A38D.gif.32731691d9045c716cb6911cdee7f4a5.gif

 

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10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

meanwhile someone on twitter was posting about how to commit the "perfect murder"- it had something to do with melting icicles lol.

My guess, Liberty, is that a  malign reagent, that activates with the melting, was somehow encased in the icicle. As always ....

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ACCUWEATHER says after a brief cold spell during the last week of January-----------------THE WINTER WILL BE OVER.

AO going + and MJO migrating into the warm phases.

Says they are taking temperatures from AN to way AN for the eastern 2/3's of the country.

I agree, but the word OVER is idiotic.      It never started.

All BN and any Snow will be accidental and thus unpredictable.

Depressing.       A    SSWE wasted.      And as if to put italics to it all, my current T at 1pm is 43*.         44* by 3pm.      45* at 3:30pm.

Now after 3 or 4 runs with no Snow or  little else, we get this:    To be  gone by 18Z?    G O N E!!!*****       

     Courtesy of WeatherBell

*****And we have a hole in our head again:

gfs_asnow_us_65.png

SSSS1610452800-DPGKMzcT2IA.png

Top is from 18Z.     The snow is rain compared to the 12Z Meteorgram.

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24 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

ACCUWEATHER says after a brief cold spell during the last week of January-----------------THE WINTER WILL BE OVER.

AO going + and MJO migrating into the warm phases.

Says they are taking temperatures from AN to way AN for the eastern 2/3's of the country.

I agree, but the word OVER is idiotic.      It never started.

All BN and any Snow will be accidental and thus unpredictable.

Depressing.       A    SSWE wasted.      And as if to put italics to it all, my current T at 1pm is 43*.

Just remember you can still get snow events here if the timing is favorable.........they actually stated "The Winter Will Be  Over" ? please post the evidence...

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35 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

ACCUWEATHER says after a brief cold spell during the last week of January-----------------THE WINTER WILL BE OVER.

AO going + and MJO migrating into the warm phases.

Says they are taking temperatures from AN to way AN for the eastern 2/3's of the country.

I agree, but the word OVER is idiotic.      It never started.

All BN and any Snow will be accidental and thus unpredictable.

Depressing.       A    SSWE wasted.      And as if to put italics to it all, my current T at 1pm is 43*.

AO sure looks to be going positive ... 

 

ao.sprd2.gif

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2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Maybe - Maybe NOT look closer many member still on the negative side of the line....

Sorry , that was meant to be sarcasm. I really meant it's way too early to be saying that. In the near term, the AO tanks then the ensembles are kind of torn on where to go from there. The blocking in the NAO region seems to be going nowhere quick and many times the AO follows the NAO. Plus a rise towards neutral after going sharply negative is when we see our biggest events. Imo the pattern looks the best it has all winter starting next week. 

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