January 2021 General Discussions & Observations Thread

[wishcast_hater]

What was last years “lesson learned” compared to this year? I don’t think we learned anything. 

[CIK62]

I believe we are still in the running for two winter season records.      Someone verify please...........

Highest   Low   T      20   back on December 19th.       current record  19   in   2001-02?

Earliest   Last  Measured Snow    December 17th.       current record  Jan. 18th.    Just last winter?

What is worse is that we could still be in the running  15 days from now!

All the talk here is about historical storms or cold------proof positive nothing is happening or threatening to happen soon.

My Ten Day Winter of   Feb.  05-15 1983 (not 1979----that was single digits, run on  dip  and ended with a 12" no warning storm,  21" in Washington DC) is looming bigger.        1983 did have snow in December too, I believe.

Since the winter started, 12/21 we are +4.6.

[lee59]

 

This weekend seems to be getting more interesting, at least on the latest GFS.

[HVSnowLover]

4 minutes ago, lee59 said:

 

This weekend seems to be getting more interesting, at least on the latest GFS.

I haven’t followed it but if the gfs is the only model making things interesting than it’s not interesting 

[lee59]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I haven’t followed it but if the gfs is the only model making things interesting than it’s not interesting 

That could be but this is a recent and rather drastic change from just a few runs ago.

[Brian5671]

20 minutes ago, lee59 said:

 

This weekend seems to be getting more interesting, at least on the latest GFS.

[Brian5671]

No cold air though

[lee59]

14 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold air though

Yea that would help. Some areas away from the coast could pick up some snow.

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold air though

Depends on the track and strength but lows along fronts are tricky 

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Depends on the track and strength but lows along fronts are tricky 

if there's no cold air behind the front it's not all that tricky.  This looks like a garbage airmass...

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

if there's no cold air behind the front it's not all that tricky.  This looks like a garbage airmass...

Agree

 

Models develop a nice epo pattern

[Allsnow]

@snowman19 wanted a better epo he is going to get it. That area is about to tank 

[donsutherland1]

A relatively quiet weather pattern remains in place. The dry weather could last through much of this week.

A strong flow of Pacific Air will push much milder air eastward. On Wednesday, high temperatures could approach or break records in the Northern Plains. The temperature could make a run at 50° on either Thursday or Friday in New York City before somewhat cooler air returns.

The first 10-15 days of January will likely be generally warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal across the northeastern United States, Quebec, and much of eastern Canada overall. After January 10, the EPS continues to shows a transition during which a trough will move into the East. During the second half of January, there will be some potential for snow events in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Afterward, the evolution of the AO will determine whether such potential continues into February. Uncertainty about the long-range has increased. There is emerging ensemble guidance showing that the AO could go positive in the closing week of January. That outcome would likely lead to a warmup near the beginning of February.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around December 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.77°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through the winter.

The SOI was +15.17 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.056.

On January 10 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 1.343 (RMM). The January 9-adjusted amplitude was 1.444.

Following a significant stratospheric warming event, the stratosphere is now cooling. The mean zonal winds have reversed at 1 mb and 10 mb. They could still reverse at 30 mb. In the wake of this warming event, the polar vortex will likely split. The dominant piece will, as is typical with such events, migrate to Eurasia.

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Were blocking to disappear, snowfall prospects would diminish. Blocking appears likely to continue through at least the first half of January. There is emerging ensemble guidance suggesting that blocking could fade during the last week of January.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 84% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January. January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 35.7°.

 

[Brian5671]

44 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

@snowman19 wanted a better epo he is going to get it. That area is about to tank 

I'd tend to agree-I feel like we get our best patterns with a -EPO

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

@snowman19 wanted a better epo he is going to get it. That area is about to tank 

Finally a negative epo

[Rjay]

I'd take this look on the EPS, GEFS and GEPS

 

 

 

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Finally a negative epo

Negative EPO. Beautiful memories of the negative EPO winters of 13-14, 14-15.  Especially 13-14 where I live.  At one point had 2-3 feet of snow pack in mid Feb.  

Totally different winter this year, but if we can get a negative EPO period, probably our best shot. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Negative EPO. Beautiful memories of the negative EPO winters of 13-14, 14-15.  Especially 13-14 where I live.  At one point had 2-3 feet of snow pack in mid Feb.  

Totally different winter this year, but if we can get a negative EPO period, probably our best shot. 

13-14 was great

Alot of fluffy snow events and temos in the single digits.

[eduggs]

5 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

No cold air though

It's really not even close. And not just the surface either. The lowest 100mb is torched.

It's unfortunate because 500mb looks interesting. I think we would need something pretty extreme to get a wintry outcome around here. Different story in the highest elevations of the Poconos, Catskills, and then up into NE.

[Eduardo]

1 hour ago, Rjay said:

I'd take this look on the EPS, GEFS and GEPS

Looks pretty!  Let's get it inside of 7 days!

[NEG NAO]

Both GFS and CMC showing an LP developing and coming up the coast offshore early next week after this weekends colder air front moves through its been hinting at this for a few runs now - ICON has it too

[LibertyBell]

On 1/8/2021 at 10:15 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I agree, but don't count out March for something.

Yep, especially the first third of March.  We usually see winters come back when there's a hiatus for the first half of February.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/8/2021 at 10:15 AM, bluewave said:

And this may help to compensate for #2 also. But I know that there are extended snow cover fans out there that may not feel that way. I am more about  snowstorm intensity and quality than how long it remains on the ground.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190124115353.htm

Even though climate change is expected to reduce the total amount of U.S. snowfall this century, it's unlikely to significantly rein in the most powerful nor'easters that pummel the East Coast, new research indicates.

 

 

I'm like that also, not a huge fan of extreme cold and high fuel bills lol.  Although I must say I do like moderately cold and crystal clear skies, it's great for astrophotography and the sun heats up my house nicely during the day.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/8/2021 at 10:15 AM, bluewave said:

And this may help to compensate for #2 also. But I know that there are extended snow cover fans out there that may not feel that way. I am more about  snowstorm intensity and quality than how long it remains on the ground.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2019/01/190124115353.htm

Even though climate change is expected to reduce the total amount of U.S. snowfall this century, it's unlikely to significantly rein in the most powerful nor'easters that pummel the East Coast, new research indicates.

 

 

actually coastal storms should be getting stronger thanks to warmer SST.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/8/2021 at 10:19 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I may be in the minority, and perhaps I would feel differently if I lived to be 123, but count me in on the global warming trade off from the perspective of a mid latitude winter fan. I'm okay with radiating to +3 instead of 0 in mid January, and melting a bit faster on average if its also falling faster. I mean....okay, every single season is now a top 3 warmest on record globally due to warm nights over Antartica, but mother nature has opened up a HECS drive through over the past 25 years. I can deal.

Hopefully by my 123rd birthday, I'm blind, so I won't see the bare ground, anyway.

you're definitely not the only one that feels this way, Ray.  Having lived through 80s winters when it was brutally cold and we got 2-4 inch deals every other week with no double digit snowfalls between Feb 1983 and Mar 1993....yea this is a lot better.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/8/2021 at 10:28 AM, bluewave said:

 

I still think that we have a chance to see a 40-50” snowstorm event somewhere between NYC and Boston in the coming years.

 

Knowing our luck, we'll be in the subsidence zone while someone either east or west of us gets 40-50 inches of snow and we'll have to settle for 15-20 inches haha

[LibertyBell]

On 1/8/2021 at 10:02 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Right, there is a natural progression for la nina to become more westerly and canonical as the season progresses, which is likely in part why climo has them front  loaded for snow fans. This season is no different.

If you like winter in the east, then you want la nina east-based, and el nino west-based....keep the warmest anomalies away from the eastern regions, near the S American coast.

they've also been known to be bookended, hence the reason we should be on the look out for early March.

[LibertyBell]

On 1/8/2021 at 9:58 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think the idea that we would have this huge second half due to collapsing la nina was fraudulent, anyway given the atmospheric lag. A big second half in a la nina season is all about the poles, which are more likely to be favorable when it peaks relatively weak.

Folks need to hope that the SSW is strong enough to protract the blocking because that is the only thing that can save Feb, and I don't think it will happen.

also....the reason why I say there is no defined enso pattern for us is no matter what signal you get, chances are (I'd say 9 out of 10), it'll be above normal temps.....el nino, we have above normal temps, la nina we have above normal temps, neutral, we have above normal temps.  It all comes down to timing between storms and the short duration cold shots we do get.  You'll be right 90% of the time if you forecast a milder than normal winter, the real talent is in forecasting how much snow and when lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/8/2021 at 9:26 AM, donsutherland1 said:

This is correct. The idea that the La Niña would collapse was incorrect. It should persist through the winter and that base case has not changed. There can be fluctuations in the anomalies and a temporary warming may have driven speculation that it was rapidly dissipating. Over the past two weeks, the temporary warming reversed (something the CFSv2 showed).

honestly and you know this as well as anyone Don, whether it weakens or doesn't wouldn't matter, as it's extremely likely our temps would be above normal anyway.  There are far greater forces that control our climate and they set the stage for everything else.

 

[LibertyBell]

On 1/8/2021 at 9:48 AM, rclab said:

I remember a child’s simple question, BW. Why do icicles  cry? As always .....

meanwhile someone on twitter was posting about how to commit the "perfect murder"- it had something to do with melting icicles lol.