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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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3 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Bluebird skies can't be beat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BEIstO77zJE

Tomorrows another AN stunner, nice seeing the sun higher in the sky too

Almost a repeat of today but slightly less wind. Model soundings
suggest boundary layer mixing up to about 925 mb and with temps
around -2C at this level, expect highs in the low 40s, upper 30s
high terrain. Sunshine and light NNW winds will provide tranquil
conditions.
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1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Hopefully we can continue to keep punching above-average height anomalies into Greenland and into the Arctic region. The big key regarding the SSW too is the structure of the pattern in the upper troposphere and what's already in place. Maybe the SSW would be responsible, or a driver, into plunging colder air back into Canada and perhaps eventually our way, but if the North American pattern is kinda garbage preceding the SSW...it may not be much help for us. 

What I really like is the signal for a major ridge to become established across the eastern Pacific...very similar to what we actually saw much of the summer and fall. There also continue to be signals for higher pressure around Greenland and if that can remain the case and be strong the PV should get attacked and weakened.

Question: Looking at 18z GFS ~200hr...is that classified as a wave-2 or wave-3 pattern?

gfs_z500aNorm_nhem_33.png

 

Not sure I buy the antecedent pattern being a big deal going into the SSW....sure, a good pattern already in place can't hurt, but look at Feb 2018...it was like 60-70 all month, then all hell broke loose.

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8 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps brings back the storm.for next week

Yeah it did. That was kind of weird but probably not totally surprising given the trouble that model guidance has had handling all these shortwaves. 

I’d still lean against a storm right now but we certainly cannot rule it out yet. 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it did. That was kind of weird but probably not totally surprising given the trouble that model guidance has had handling all these shortwaves. 

I’d still lean against a storm right now but we certainly cannot rule it out yet. 

Your take on the weeklies today? 

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Not sure I buy the antecedent pattern being a big deal going into the SSW....sure, a good pattern already in place can't hurt, but look at Feb 2018...it was like 60-70 all month, then all hell broke loose.

It really just comes down to how the cards fall. Feb 2018...man everything fell in place nearly perfectly. 

Regardless of a SSW or not, there are some positives moving into the second half of the month...but I freaking hate saying this :lol: I feel like that phrase is worn out lol. But...continued signs for above-average heights into Greenland/Arctic region with a +PNA...SSW or not, those two things are good to see. Now if we can dump some cold into Canada (which also looks to happen)...well we got the pieces just gotta work with em.

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17 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Your take on the weeklies today? 

No real changes? All systems go for 2nd half of the month. Let’s hope it delivers. 

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43 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No real changes? All systems go for 2nd half of the month. Let’s hope it delivers. 

The weeklies still trying to bring La Nina pattern on Feb 2nd onward. Though a -NAO looks to persist. 

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12 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

The weeklies still trying to bring La Nina pattern on Feb 2nd onward. Though a -NAO looks to persist. 

Gotta love how everyone has mourned the scarcity of the NAO over the past several years, now we have it for a month and a half and it's netted one warning event that still deposited the very heavy snows well north and inland. Lol

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2 hours ago, 78Blizzard said:

Do any mets here know whether any of the global models have the capability to factor into their prediction systems the effects of the onset of a major SSW?

Not when it’s two week (minimum) from effecting any AO modulation ... which predates any tropospheric awareness by that much, and more, time. In other words it’s completely invisible to the models that only handle the troposphere because it’s not even in the troposphere yet; interact with the tropopause and that begins to interact in 10 days to two weeks and then there’s yet more time for the AO to completely respond we’re talking about probably the first week of February for this particular SSW maybe the last week of January

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What’s likely to happen with much greater certainty is the ongoing -AO may eventually precede a cold event prior and unrelated, and the consortium will falsely blame the pattern as rooted in the SSW 

.... and I will be exceedingly annoyed

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Was there some kinda mega political death threat blowout or something - what’s with the banner warning .. 

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10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Was there some kinda mega political death threat blowout or something - what’s with the banner warning .. 

I think you let politics into one of your posts the other day, lol.

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22 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

I think you let politics into one of your posts the other day, lol.

Heh if I did ( and I think I recall being sardonic in jest ) it was the first time in months.  Not something I normally engage in no -

Figured maybe somebody flew off the handle because of that stuff going on yesterday

 

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1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

What’s likely to happen with much greater certainty is the ongoing -AO may eventually precede a cold event prior and unrelated, and the consortium will falsely blame the pattern as rooted in the SSW 

.... and I will be exceedingly annoyed

Yeah I agree. The hemispheric pattern becomes a lot more favorable for an arctic intrusion later in the month assuming guidance has a clue. Wouldn’t surprise me to see a legit polar express shot show up at some point post-ides

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22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looking back at my records, Jan 2011 didn't really get going until the blizzard on the 12th....seasonal totals were pretty comparable to right now.

Still time....again, I'm betting against a repeat of that, but the big tickets are unlikely to really show before 3-5 days lead time.

Really?  It took until mid month to get going?  I feel like that whole month was just rocking constantly.....shoveling not small amounts of snow twice even three times a week.....lol Hartford streets were completely impassable cuz they gave up and just used the right lanes to store the snow......one time going to pick up 6 month old the traffic was so bad due to lane reduction everywhere I had to bail and hoof it 6 blocks to get him then carry him in the seat back to car climbing over mountains of uncleared snow at the crosswalk ramps.....wild

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Just now, ice1972 said:

Really?  It took until mid month to get going?  I feel like that whole month was just rocking constantly.....shoveling not small amounts of snow twice even three times a week.....lol Hartford streets were completely impassable cuz they gave up and just used the right lanes to store the snow......one time going to pick up 6 month old the traffic was so bad due to lane reduction everywhere I had to bail and hoof it 6 blocks to get him then carry him in the seat back to car climbing over mountains of uncleared snow at the crosswalk ramps.....wild

I sound like my scicilian grandma talking about her treks to and from school in mountains of snow in the Italian ghetto of Chicago in 1920.....

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