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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ENSO is not meaningless. It's not as prevalent as it once was.

Maybe it never was...maybe we just thought it was and we were more wrong than right about it?  
 

Just Like we’ve been wrong about a lot of things we thought we were right about, before we discovered otherwise?  

Just saying.

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

Maybe it never was...maybe we just thought it was and we were more wrong than right about it?  
 

Just Like we’ve been wrong about a lot of things we thought were right about, before we discovered otherwise?  

Just saying.

Well, it stands to reason that global warming is muting its significance, like John says with the HC expansion etc. Not disputing that, but I don't think it should be ignored, either.

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11 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

How are the weeklies looking?.

They look the same for the most part. Been pretty consistent actually. Week 3 is the peak weenie pattern but it looks good through the end of the month and then it goes to more classic La Nina February. Though keep in mind by that point we're in week 5/6 which have little skill.

 

Here's week 3.

 

Jan4_week3.png

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They look the same for the most part. Been pretty consistent actually. Week 3 is the peak weenie pattern but it looks good through the end of the month and then it goes to more classic La Nina February. Though keep in mind by that point we're in week 5/6 which have little skill.

 

Here's week 3.

 

Jan4_week3.png

Thank you very much!. Very nice. 

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42 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

beautiful this morning....mud by 3 pm. That January 4th sun angle is a killer. Seeing posts about January 4th, 3 years ago, ready for a good snow threat, lol

And I have an acidic lawn so the mud is plentiful now after a beauty winter-like morning. Looks more like April out there now. 

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48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It also insulates the ground if we ever get an arctic plunge.

I've been asking about this a couple times. Reliably, how far out can we look to see if an outbreak is coming?

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Man that EPS...not only a west based Nao block but is that a PNA and then a huge EPO ridge?  Also doesn’t look super suppressed 50-50 doesn’t look too far south.  Looks like a GREAT pattern for many from VA to ME.

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Those weeklies look amazing!   However we should caution that we’ve had good looks from ensembles and weeklies as recently as last winter.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thing is everything has been consistent for like over a week.

This isn't going to vanish.

Agree. But further out in time is always somewhat tenuous.

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Weeklies basically eased off a bit on blocking and improved the Pacific. Probably eventually will begin to get more Niña like, but hopefully we get leftover higher heights in the Arctic heading through Feb.

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That is the hope....Feb could get fugly.

Maybe at some point? But at least weeklies look good to start. FWIW anyways. 

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4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Tip got his wish vanquishing the hadley-geopotential gradient.

Way more than one would hope, huh -   lol..

Btw, I'm beginning to wonder if this -AO is really bootlegged off a huge axial tilted PV that's oddly displaced if not pulled off the pole into into a violently +WPO

...Sort of like Japan's version of a 1993-1994 -NAO ... but obviously covering a considerably larger area.  Looking at this, that's a probably the most powerful linear windfield on this planet since the impact that create the moon out there in western Pac: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/CMCNA_0z/hgtcomp.html

What also strikes me is how abandoned we are over on our side of the hemisphere of any PV signature ...prtty much at all.  We're left in utter entropy of pattern with warbling convoluted spaghetti over here ... in case no one's noticed.  I mean...we're trying time and place objects in space with this f'titude?  good luck...

I don't think this is sans the HC as much as it is sans anything frankly - just weird.  Brian pretty much get the post award for this page on that statement  - not much else to be added haha

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2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ENSO is not meaningless IMO. It's not the prominent driver that it once was.

Vroooom -

it's called 'sarcasm' ?  

For the record I agree...it's an attenuating factor ...not 0 - never meant to explicitly state that.  Rather, that it is buried inside a large expansion of the HC where it is becoming less able to disperse and force the westerlies as readily as half a century back ... 

By the way, while on the subject... I'm beginning to suspect the MJO is suffering less influence because it's wave presentation is also trapped - in their weekly PDFs put out, the bullet headers are routinely stating that the waves are being destructively interfered with.  I noted they made this comment during the last warm event(s) too...  Discussion for climate/winter outlooks perhaps tho

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25 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I want January February AND March to rock!

Then 80s in April.

Thanks

Getting kinda sick of this winter already too -

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Seriously ...what's the return rate on warm yummy Aprils ?

I think 1 in 20 maybe, or ?

Really not sure.  I remember ... I think it was 2008 or perhaps 2010... Actually, I think we had three back to back to back years of impressively mild springs around then, but one of them...man, half the deciduous species were three quarters leafed out by Easter ... and the lawns were like melon mowed aroma three cycles in ...  Girls actually looked at me - some kind of Disney alls swell thing was the air and all sins had been absolved...  

Now, contrast that relative utopia with the rectal glue we got stuck in for 7 years in f'n row now ... I hate April - what can I say 

 

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14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Seriously ...what's the return rate on warm yummy Aprils ?

I think 1 in 20 maybe, or ?

Really not sure.  I remember ... I think it was 2008 or perhaps 2010... Actually, I think we had three back to back to back years of impressively mild springs around then, but one of them...man, half the deciduous species were three quarters leafed out by Easter ... and the lawns were like melon mowed aroma three cycles in ...  Girls actually looked at me - some kind of Disney alls swell thing was the air and all sins had been absolved...  

Now, contrast that relative utopia with the rectal glue we got stuck in for 7 years in f'n row now ... I hate April - what can I say 

 

2010 had obscenely early leaf out. I remember even in ORH we were almost totally out by 4/10-4/12 or so. It might have been ahead of even 2012 which had the epic week-straight of 70s and 80s in March, however, 2012 turned kind of seasonably chilly again in early April which may have slowed some of the progress started in late March.

2010 was popping 70s and even 80s like nothing in early April.

 

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The weeklies may look good, but right now the GFS and v16 are whiff central for the next 2 weeks.  For whatever that's worth, and most likely not much.

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21 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The weeklies may look good, but right now the GFS and v16 are whiff central for the next 2 weeks.  For whatever that's worth, and most likely not much.

18Z GFS.  Quickly running through the model run.  Not including this fish storm there are 3 more whiffs in the run.  If all these storms ran further NW New England would be digging out.

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18 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z GFS.  Quickly running through the model run.  Not including this fish storm there are 3 more whiffs in the run.  If all these storms ran further NW New England would be digging out.

The most overused two letter word on this forum.  ;)

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57 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

18Z GFS.  Quickly running through the model run.  Not including this fish storm there are 3 more whiffs in the run.  If all these storms ran further NW New England would be digging out.

But they're all south, rather have them moving south than cutters on the models.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Vroooom -

it's called 'sarcasm' ?  

For the record I agree...it's an attenuating factor ...not 0 - never meant to explicitly state that.  Rather, that it is buried inside a large expansion of the HC where it is becoming less able to disperse and force the westerlies as readily as half a century back ... 

By the way, while on the subject... I'm beginning to suspect the MJO is suffering less influence because it's wave presentation is also trapped - in their weekly PDFs put out, the bullet headers are routinely stating that the waves are being destructively interfered with.  I noted they made this comment during the last warm event(s) too...  Discussion for climate/winter outlooks perhaps tho

No, I figured you were "poking the hornet's nest", so to speak....just figured that I'd oblige.

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