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January 2021

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Blue balls...

There was a once upon a time when that would really hurt, “sigh” . As always .....

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6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Blue balls...

How is this little lobe even possible? I never saw anything come straight down from Eastern Canada. 

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2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How is this little lobe even possible? I never saw anything come straight down from Eastern Canada. 

It doesn’t magically appear. It originates from the same shortwave the main ULL does. Go back to the beginning of the run and watch progression. It breaks off from the energy coming onshore

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4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I’d be out on this one for Ne and even down to my area in Philly. I’d focus on the 12th right now imo. Unless we see models change that lobe position it’ll be tough for it to come north 

Or unless the lobe is bullshit 

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How is this little lobe even possible? I never saw anything come straight down from Eastern Canada. 

It breaks off the backside of the jan 4th system as it churns in the 50/50 position. 

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Just now, MJO812 said:

How is this little lobe even possible? I never saw anything come straight down from Eastern Canada. 

You have the blocking that will be present over Greenland.  This current storm slows as it encounters the blocking and that lobe of vorticity has nowhere to go but South and pivot around the exiting low, over the Northeast

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Or unless the lobe is bullshit 

Probably be gone next run...things will change for sure. Blocking makes the pattern do odd things...you never know what can pop up? 

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4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

It doesn’t magically appear. It originates from the same shortwave the main ULL does. Go back to the beginning of the run and watch progression. It breaks off from the energy coming onshore

gfs_z500_vort_namer_5.thumb.png.0fad729d9a1277796d6ad39b44fbab6c.png

gfs_z500_vort_namer_21.thumb.png.ead1a53108e0ddb8bae21dc3259d589f.png

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If that lobe weren't there, we'd be talking about another storm.  That's not to say something still can't occur but it muddy's up the water.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

If that lobe weren't there, we'd be talking about another storm.  That's not to say something still can't occur but it muddy's up the water.

Most storms don’t come down the line in place from 300 hours out. I tend to see ripples or changes upstream at 120-200 hours where they come in a side door onto the conveyor belt 

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1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Probably be gone next run...things will change for sure. Blocking g makes the pattern do odd things...you never know what can pop up? 

It’s there on euro and to a lesser extent, the cmc. 

 

14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

gfs_z500_vort_namer_5.thumb.png.0fad729d9a1277796d6ad39b44fbab6c.png

gfs_z500_vort_namer_21.thumb.png.ead1a53108e0ddb8bae21dc3259d589f.png

Ah yea you’re right. H5 height field was misleading. Looking at H5 vort is clearer. The shortwave traverses across canada then gets deflected south by Dikembe Mutombo into our weekend system.

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s there on euro and to a lesser extent, the cmc. 

 

Ah yea you’re right. H5 height field was misleading. Looking at H5 vort is clearer. The shortwave traverses across canada then gets deflected south by Dikembe Mutombo into our weekend system.

Flagrant foul.

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The way this last one went bad 24 hrs out, I wouldn’t trust any of those small nuances at this long lead for this weekend..whether it be “bad” or “good” for us here in SNE.   That look and evolution will change going forward.  
And who knows what will come out of it, or how it will affect the next potential system(s)? 

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9 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

The way this last one went bad 24 hrs out, I wouldn’t trust any of those small nuances at this long lead for this weekend..whether it be “bad” or “good” for us here in SNE.   That look and evolution will change going forward.  
And who knows what will come out of it, or how it will affect the next potential system(s)? 

maybe we should just nowcast everything

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6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

maybe we should just nowcast everything

yesterdays system was a prime example IMO of a system that needed to be nowcasted IMO - I was just using various radars -I didn't use any of the mesoscale models since people were complaining about them yesterday and I  had  plenty of notice in advance of what probably would happen in my area just using the radars........

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2 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Personally I think we have a better shot with the 12-13th timeframe than the 9-10 timeframe. 

Sort of in agreement here ...  ( just using your post as a launch pad - am aware no one cares... )

Kind of a broad-stroked perspective but given the past 20 years ?   considering the lion's share of snow verification did not take place in a -NAO, and were in fact Pac guided, then adding that this recent NAO's handling: those two aggregated facets =  f* this man    

None of that lends to even wanting to engage in this as a hobby at this time.  Ha, can you imagine the professional that is by trade, forced to examine and eat the shit of this pattern?  I mean the poor schmuck - LOL

I just would rather swipe the eraser lever on this drawing toy known as Internet weather charts... and start a brand new paradigm.  If that means returning to the faster flow, progressive needle threading, so be it. We had better productivity that other way.   

No but seriously ... it seems this convoluted pattern/nebularity isn't handled very well.  That Euro 00z cannot be resolved - even by that particular model's touted acumen and monstrosity of daunting complexity built in, that's a convoluted exercise in fractal apoplexy it's trying to manage in the D5-10.   And given its own recent performance during this pattern ( *relative to just that regime ) ... well, it's beyond its wheelhouse anyway.   

What leaps out at me through it all... the PNA - go wonder ... Pac guided ;)   ... we just can't seem to pop a western ridge/+PNAP expression, which is needed for basic wave position mechanical arguments.   

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Perfect

Oh good, Because @H5 it looks like it whiffs the region, Glad your onboard with it.

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Just now, dryslot said:

Oh good, Because @H5 it looks like it whiffs the region, Glad your onboard with it.

You never asked what my forecast was.

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You never asked what my forecast was.

I figured perfect meant a hit.

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3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Bob hates snow so perfect = miss

He's giddy like a school boy when it does snow though. KTAN people full of two things: Stein and Shit. 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

He's giddy like a school boy when it does snow though. KTAN people full of two things: Stein and Shit. 

 I enjoy tracking storms more then the results.  Only snowstorms I like are the crippling ones, 12'+,

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