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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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Historically a -PNA/-NAO pattern is actually pretty good for us. Though December seems to benefit the most from it....but Jan/Feb are also favorable. We're just enduring a Jan '69 at the moment...hopefully it turns.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Historically a -PNA/-NAO pattern is actually pretty good for us. Though December seems to benefit the most from it....but Jan/Feb are also favorable. We're just enduring a Jan '69 at the moment...hopefully it turns.

Yes, that is what pisses me off...when we were headed into this....I was like, Feb 1969 and Jan 2011.....cool. Obviously not redux, but this can work. But not with that ridge axis....the little shit that porks you that just can't be foreseen.

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13 minutes ago, PowderBeard said:

 

Yea like someone ripped open a pillow in front of a fan. Some of the heaviest of the winter, almost 1/2" down. 

Yeah, wife says almost 1/2” at home.  Snow globe snow.

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I thought gfs would be better at the surface with the primary being further north like that so yea, still squashed. Better for the 28th as well.

We may be slowly poking holes in our snow shiled. 

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If i had a choice (which i don't) between cutter or suppression, I'd take my chances with the cutters, At least there would be a chance and most likely, It would be snow not far from here.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If i had a choice (which i don't) between cutter or suppression, I'd take my chances with the cutters, At least there would be a chance and most likely, It would be snow not far from here.

I think anywhere north of rt 2 would, at this point.

I would....assuming the tilted heights do not change.

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Just now, NorEastermass128 said:

Nice....just 10 more days...

Actually, Out of all the last 3 -10 day looks we've had, This one looks the most favorable period i think.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian moved quite a bit north at 12z. Gets some snows into the region.

How much for Philly?

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32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Historically a -PNA/-NAO pattern is actually pretty good for us. Though December seems to benefit the most from it....but Jan/Feb are also favorable. We're just enduring a Jan '69 at the moment...hopefully it turns.

Yeah... I don't mean to lord this idea ..or abase what you just said there, because you're right - but I suspect there is some era/climate -relativity in the usefulness of the distinction. 

In concise terms, I think the velocity saturation/surplusing we are seeing ( anomalous wind speed in the balanced atmospheric state ) over the last 10 years ..is taking its "interpretive toll" on the teleconnector relationships.  

I mean in simplest terms, the -PNA/-NAO of 1955 ... isn't the same affair now.  But I was just trying to add some plausible reasons why - running blocks at 60+N with 110 knot "NON -S/W" wind fields underneath is a desctructive interference scheme... 

We'll see how the next 7 to 10 days of this -NAO is handled ... I think we can 'squeeze' a needle thread. In fact, I am actually highly confident that some vestigial jet stream mechanics will ignite some limited overrunning/ANA ..if not weak low but the latitude it escapes the EC and impacts while doing so, ...prooobably comes down to that elephant ass polar circulation ( "Scooter streak" I think we joked in the past ??) hanging over top of us ... I have noticed a lot of run to run high sensitivity on where said axis of any system moves is directly being position when the GFS has been bumping that stream NE and SW of previous modeled axis.  It seems overall .. the guidance' want the system but are having issues with up N. 

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That comment deserves a weenie, Kev, but I'm actually serious. These seasonal tenors can not be ignored once we reach a certain point. Watch...mark my words....Will is going to measure like 4" in Holliston, while I'll be lucky to see flakes.

I'm dead serious.

Will jacks in most events it seems 

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23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think I had that much...it was only discernible on the deck.

I wasn’t expecting a snowy morning so it’s been a nice surprise.  At least everything is white for a few hours.

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Just now, GCWarrior said:

Deep winter up in Savoy on my drive though this morning.  

Yeah, friend in Heath got close to 2” of feathers. 
Do you commute to North Adams?

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